Voters are clearly still very upset with Republicans and don't seem to have finished venting their s

[Omaha Steve]

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/print_friendly.php?ID=cr_20080524_7554

Sat. May. 24, 2008
by Charlie Cook

At the outset of this election cycle, most political analysts did not anticipate a second consecutive big win in November for congressional Democrats for a number of reasons.

First, after voters have punished one party badly, they've usually gotten those hard feelings out of their system and either punish the other party or revert to a more typical "all politics is local" election. In 2006, Republicans held the presidency as well as the House and Senate. One-party government sooner or later invites an election disaster for that party. But having taken away the Republicans' majorities in both chambers in 2006, why would voters decide to hammer them a second time?

Second, although President Bush continued to have dismal job-approval ratings after the 2006 election and it was hard to see how they would improve much, wouldn't he become increasingly less relevant--to the point of being almost irrelevant by November 2008?

Third, wouldn't at least the congressional side of the 2008 elections be more about Democrats anyway, a referendum on whether House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., and their party were dealing effectively with major national problems? And with the Democrats holding only narrow majorities in both chambers, weren't the odds against their accomplishing much, thus increasing the likelihood that the electorate would turn on them?

Then the analysts' arguments got down to the micro-political level. After losing 30 House seats, wasn't the GOP herd pretty much culled of its weakest incumbents and those who had been serving in the most-endangered districts? Weren't the remaining Republican incumbents in reasonably secure districts? Indeed, weren't there far more Democrats sitting in districts won by Bush than Republicans sitting in districts won by 2004 Democratic nominee John Kerry? On the Senate side, other than incumbents Norm Coleman of Minnesota and John Sununu of New Hampshire, were there really many other Republicans who looked particularly vulnerable?

FULL story at link.

[Arctic Dave]

1. "culled of its weakest incumbents"

I like the sound of that. I'm guessing they would fatty and taste like crap.

[Yael]

2. Or, we landslide in November against a milque toast supported candidate

and the coattails bring the ticket with us.

As long as we have someone on the ticket that doesn't give the R's a reason to foam at the mouth and line up at 7am to vote, I think it can happen.

[AndyTiedye]

3. The "Foaming at the Mouth" Crowd Will be Lining Up at 6 to Vote Against Either HRC or BHO…

…unless they can't afford enough gas to drive to the polls in their pickups.

[Yael]

4. I live in the most Republican county in my state

and per capita, the 5th most in the nation.

People here could care less. They really, really dislike McCain and while they would NEVER vote for a democrat, they are appreciative of the youth vote being amped up.

My own mother thinks Obama is the Antichrist, but she is staying home as she will not vote for McCain.

It will be interesting.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

7. I agree......

....but then again, they frothed at the mouth to vote against a rather innocuous bore like John Kerry. The R(ove)NC are masters of the slime treatment to work their zealots into a frenzy.

[Juche]

5. I tend to believe Paul Krugman

In his book he claimed that the 2006 election was not an aberration due solely to the war, but a result of the public finally waking up to what movement conservatives really stand for and want to do when in power. He predicts that the GOP will be trounced for a few elections in a row (probably 06-10) until they are reborn as a more moderate party. The current GOP is fundamentally a party that disagrees with the public on virtually every issue but wins because of wedge issues and voter apathy. THe crimes of Bush had cut down on voter apathy and the wedge issues don't work as well anymore.

You have to be blind to not see that the GOP is dangerous and inept. They want to spend $500+ billion a year on war and tax cuts for the rich while ignoring all the domestic problems we are facing. They think tax cuts for the wealthy and deregulation will cure everything and if not, try it anyway. They are hostile towards science and international issues. The 'wedge issues' they use like race or abortion or gays are not as powerful as the public have become more liberal on these issues. THe public aren't as easily to distract with religion, gays or abortion like they used to be because there are more important bread/butter issues like healthcare or affording rent and because the public are moving more and more to the left on the 'wedge' issues.


The public has moved to the left on gay rights, healthcare, unions (58% said they'd join one if they could), government intervention, the war in Iraq, restraining corporations and the rich, and a bunch of other issues.


http://mediamatters.org/progmaj/

The issues covered in this report include the following:

The role of government - Americans support an active government that tackles problems, provides services, and aids those in need.
The economy - Americans support increasing the minimum wage and strong unions, and believe the wealthy and corporations don't pay their fair share of taxes.
Social issues - Americans support legal abortion and embryonic stem cell research; opinions on equal rights for women and gay Americans have grown dramatically more progressive in recent years.
Security - Americans support a progressive approach to national security, emphasizing strong alliances and diplomacy over the indiscriminate use of military force. On domestic security issues, progressive approaches to crime and gun control enjoy wide support.
The environment - By enormous margins, Americans favor strong environmental protections, a core progressive belief.
Energy - Americans support energy conservation and the development of alternative fuels.
Health care - Americans clearly favor universal coverage and are more than comfortable with government solutions to the health care problem.

[roamer65]

6. 1933-1953.

Let's see if we can beat that 20 year stretch of Democratic dominance this time around.