I think the GOP is scared to death of an Obama nomination

[Perky]

First of all, it enthuses black voters in the south in a way that is unimaginable to them. The GOP base has nowhere to go but down in the south. Conservatives vote as regular as rain. That means they are not going to find new voters to turn out particularly with the legacy of Iraq

Secondly, a 25% increase in black voter turnout would overwhelm their capacity to cheat particularly in major metropolitan areas where there is strong black political infrastructure.

Third Obama does not have a long legislative record to attack. This is no doubt owed in part to the fact that the Senate has voted for so little during his tenure. Plus the fact that any attack that appears to attack his ethnicity is going radicalize the election not only in the SOuth but also in Swing states like VA, Arkansas, Maine and Ohio. They do not dare do that in order to protect the southern Flank which while vulnerable is still largely monolithic.

Finally, there is another factor at play and that is the white atonement factor. There are a few million white southerners who want to move past the image of the old south. They recognize that Obama is smart, savvy, credible and to put it bluntly is not anything like Jesse or Al Sharpton. Obama presents to them an opportunity for atonement for the sins of their parents and forbears.

If Obama is allowed by the black establishment and white fundraisers to continue down his present path He assuredly wins the nomination and I think stalemates the GOP in the south and thereby picks up Ohio, Florida and Virginia.

[goclark]

1. Go Obama! nt

[JackintheGreen]

3. I prefer: "Gobama!"

but then I study lots of eliding languages.

:)

[goclark]

7. I love it~ Gobama! Gobama! nt

[Odin2005]

34. LOL,, that's a good one

GOBAMA!!!

[saltpoint]

2. The GOP should be fearful of any Democratic ticket in 2008 because

whoever's on it is going to kick their butts good.

A perfect storm is abrew and the GOP is in a styrofoam lifeboat. All they have is Dick Cheney lying about our great triumphs in Iraq and Ann Coulter's nasty mouth.

All our people look like all of America's people, and it's been 6-8 long years of lies and more lies, with disastrous consequences.

Plus, their presidential line-up is a pack of morons and psychotics.

We win. We win big.

[Kolesar]

4. He doesn't have a record and he doesn't have any positions

Yes, we all know we need a new, respectful discourse in this country. And the war is wrong. But I would like a candidate who sounds like he has read a few books on global warming, trade, health care, or education.

Welcome to Cleveland: http://www.cleveland.com/news/plaindealer/joe_frolik/index.ssf?/base/opinion/1172914597144500.xml&coll=2

[Perky]

5. I assure he has read more books than most of Dems running

[Kolesar]

38. He does not sound like it.

Cannot he pull out the kernel of gaining health for our lungs along with protecting our natural resources?

[pnwmom]

6. He has a long record in Illinois where you can see his positions.

Or didn't you realize that?

[Kolesar]

9. What's stopping him from describing his positions?

At this time in his campaign, for example, Howard Dean had a health plan to cite.

[Perky]

13. SImple question requiring a yes or no response

Have you read the Audacity of Hope?

[Kolesar]

23. No...eom

[pnwmom]

25. Geez.

Doesn't sound like s/he really wants to know anything about Obama, does it?

[Kolesar]

33. So I am supposed to read Obama's book to find his energy policy?

If I give the candidate 10 or 15 minutes listening to his speech, he should be able to at least address one of the positions that he advocates.

Obama cannot get by just running against George Bush and his awful war. George Bush will not be on the ballot. We have scant years to deal with CO2 in the atmosphere or Medicare funding in the out years (when I retire). We don't have time for a greenhorn to sit in the Oval Office and learn the job then.

[rebel with a cause]

39. Just to let you know........

Obama worked for universal health care here in Illinois and although we never quite reached it, not his fault, we are closer to it than some people in this country. In 2004, when he ran for the Senate, universal health care was one of his concerns and one he spoke of regularly and he had a plan even back then on how it should be. In fact, we pushed him to speak more about the war of which he disapproved and against bush of whom we all disapproved. Then, like now, he tried to run a mostly positive campaign. But at the end, as the campaign wound down, he spoke on these things, and we were not disappointed.

But if you really want to know more about where he stands, go to www.barackobama.com and click on the tab that says issues. It covers most of the things you may want to know, including the topic of health care.

[Kolesar]

40. His Genetic Medicine plan is a clever way to put Stem-cell in the forefront

and I like that on the surface, and for the way it pushes the issue into the electoral arena. I like the healty/walkable communities.

But what is he going to do for the 46 million uninsured Americans? I want single payer health coverage. Why does he not run on that?

CAFE standards are great energy policy, but we need a lot more. His ethanol and clean coal policies are unworkable according to the technology that is available right now. He is just playing to the corn farmers and coal interests in his state of Illinois and I don't like it one bit. We don't need more coal development.

[rebel with a cause]

42. All the state representatives are responsible to the people in their states.

That is how it is and always has been, and how it should be for the most part. I did not vote for him to go to the Senate and represent the interest of the shop owners in lower Manhattan.

About health care, that is an important issue for some people, including me, but I know where he stands on it because I talked to him. But it is not THE issue that most people are eager to hear about today. The topic of today is the war, and Barack being the one person running (besides Kucinich) that was against it from the beginning is speaking on that issue. It is the cry for action that he has heard and is addressing. As things progress through what looks to be a very long year, he will go on to speak of other issues in depth. But right now the people want to hear someone say that this war is wrong and we have to end it. Hope is being called for, and he is trying to give it, to make us feel like we can make a difference.

[pnwmom]

47. Just because you won't take the time to investigate his record

in Illinois or to read his book doesn't make him a greenhorn or inexperienced.

[Kolesar]

50. Ironic in light of this thread that Barak Obama refers to "sound bite solutions"

http://www.amazon.com/Audacity-Hope-Thoughts-Reclaiming-American/dp/0307237699/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/102-1273555-1340140?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1173379018&sr=8-1

Q: How do you make people passionate about moderate and complex ideas?

Obama: I think the country recognizes that the challenges we face aren't amenable to sound-bite solutions. People are looking for serious solutions to complex problems. I don't think we need more moderation per se--I think we should be bolder in promoting universal health care, or dealing with global warming. We just need to understand that actually solving these problems won't be easy, and that whatever solutions we come up with will require consensus among groups with divergent interests. That means everybody has to listen, and everybody has to give a little. That's not easy to do.

--.--
Like that Joe Frolik column I posted from Cleveland.com said, Obama is going to have to start delivering speeches about the substance of policy.

--o--0--o--

From Publishers Weekly:

Ilinois's Democratic senator illuminates the constraints of mainstream politics all too well in this sonorous manifesto. Obama (Dreams from My Father) castigates divisive partisanship (especially the Republican brand) and calls for a centrist politics based on broad American values. His own cautious liberalism is a model: he's skeptical of big government and of Republican tax cuts for the rich and Social Security privatization; he's prochoice, but respectful of prolifers; supportive of religion, but not of imposing it. The policy result is a tepid Clintonism, featuring tax credits for the poor, a host of small-bore programs to address everything from worker retraining to teen pregnancy, and a health-care program that resembles Clinton's Hillary-care proposals. On Iraq, he floats a phased but open-ended troop withdrawal. His triangulated positions can seem conflicted: he supports free trade, while deploring its effects on American workers (he opposed the Central American Free Trade Agreement), in the end hoping halfheartedly that more support for education, science and renewable energy will see the economy through the dilemmas of globalization. Obama writes insightfully, with vivid firsthand observations, about politics and the compromises forced on politicians by fund-raising, interest groups, the media and legislative horse-trading. Alas, his muddled, uninspiring proposals bear the stamp of those compromises. (Oct. 17)
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[pnwmom]

59. If you don't want sound bites, then quit looking for solutions in

speeches, and start reading his book and his position papers.

[Perky]

60. This subthread is intellectualy lazy

You have not gone to his website.

You have not read his book

You want him to lay his plans in the first 15 minutes of his speach

and now you are grabbing someone else's thread to criticizes him for being focused on sound bites.

WOW.

How about picking up a book and reading more than the dustjacket.????

[Kolesar]

63. yes, I read O's website. No I won't spend 5 evenings reading his book. 15 min of his speech yields..

..about nothing--what do the next 45 minutes do?

I notice that none of the Obama followers here or on DailyKos can articulate what is in the book. That tells me a lot.

As for intellectually lazy, anybody who thinks ethanol is going to solve our motoring woes is woefully unprepared.

Sorry to disappoint you Obama fans.

[WorldResident]

8. Riggght .. because 90% of blacks don't vote for the Democratic candidate anyways ...

Most polls have Obama polling worse than Clinton or Edwards ... Edwards polls the best but he's too moderate for me.

[ellacott]

10. That's not correct

http://news.ncmonline.com/news/view_article.html?article_id=34ba971ffa81d306d956a074fed18da2

[pnwmom]

48. There are MANY disaffected voters of all races who could be

energized by an Obama candidacy. I think that's why he's a real threat to the GOP.

[AnnInLa]

11. I agree with you totally

They actually want for our nominee to be Hillary Clinton, not Obama. This country gets ga-ga for bright, new, shiny objects....kinda like going ga-ga for American Idol, or Anna Nicole Smith, or the latest missing white woman. Obama is new, shiny, idealistic, a new John Kennedy....I think he'd take the whole country by storm, and make people actually interested in getting out and voting for a different direction for this country. This scares the RW to death.

So, it must be quite a quandry for the RWers. Where do they direct the majority of their venom? They definitely hate, hate, Senator Clinton, so the venom there just comes naturally. They think they can win against Senator Clinton, but not against Senator Obama. So, they must direct most of the organized venom against him, hedging their bets by spewing off about Senator Clinton.

I will support the Dem nominee whoever it is, but I really hope it is the Kennedy-like Obama. Americans like shiny new toys, and I think they would go for him big-time.

[TwilightGardener]

12. I agree, AnnInLA

He's got star power and charisma--I'm sorry, but that's half the battle right there. He doesn't have a long and tainted history in politics, and he comes off as intelligent and genuine. It would be tough to attack him--he is not polarizing, and doesn't have the baggage of the other Democratic candidates.

[champt10]

14. Maybe but...

I'm scared of Guilianni.

[TwilightGardener]

15. I'm not. He's a one-trick pony.

[champt10]

17. I think you should be scared...

of Guilianni. If he gets that nomination, I'm trying my hardest, but I cant figure out a way he loses.

[Perky]

18. That is the problem

He does not get the nomination.

If SC is the bellwhether for the south...and it is.....then he has to win there....and I do not see that happen because everyone will still be in at that point and there is no favoprite for South Carolina. If he does not beat expectation there (second or better) there is no way he gets the nod in august, It is a mathematical certainty.

[champt10]

20. At the Same time though...

And I know the polls apparently mean nothing, but it is staggering the lead Guilliani has. We keep talking about how his numbers will go down when they find out about what he believes in on social issues, but that issue has been beaten for over two months now, and he is only getting stronger. As of right now, there is no competition at all, and I know its early, but I just cant imagine where it will come from.

[TwilightGardener]

21. Celebrities can always wear out their welcome,

and a performer's shtick (Tell me about 9/11, Uncle Rudy! What was it like?) can always get old, if repeated often enough. He is a celebrity. He was maybe a good mayor (I don't know, not from NYC), but certainly an asshole, to colleagues and to his own loved ones. If he becomes the nominee, I'm willing to guess that the American public will be curious, then leery, and then ultimately go with the Dem. He is not presidential material.

[champt10]

24. The way I see it..

is that if he gets the nomination, he could win two key states in New York and New Jersey. I mean that celebrity status is and will always be prominent in those two states. I am from New Jersey and i could see it go to Guilianni. From Central Jersey and north, where most of the population is from, we get new york stations. NBC new york, ABC new york, etc, treated him like a hero and he was in the news all the time. I just have a bad feeling that he could carry those two states and that scares me.

[TwilightGardener]

26. That could happen--I'm not saying it's far-fetched,

but I live in the Midwest, and I don't see the love for him out here. The northeast, I believe, will go Dem--especially if the war(s) are still chugging along.

[Perky]

46. You need to research why Republicans win in NYC

Basically they run as social liberals and fiscal conservatives. And the dems had a primary war of attrition beween various factions and agendas. MANY MANY dems would rather vote for a liberal republican in NYC then the DEM who they did not vote for in the primary.

[TwilightGardener]

56. So they're sort of amorphous...

interesting--that would explain Rudy and Bloomberg--essentially they're Ben Nelsons.

[Clark2008]

29. South Carolina is NOT the bellweather for the South.

It's far more conservative than many of the border Southern states.

Bellweather means "mean," which would mean that Arkansas, Tennessee, Virginia and Florida are more bellweather than South Carolina.

[Perky]

45. Florida is not in the deep south.

And Neither is Virginia.

Florida is a complete melting pot from Orlando south to the Keys. ANd the last two elections three elections in VA suggest that it is in play becausse of the Populataion growth in NoVA and Hampton RoaDS

Bellweather is meant here as an erly indicator of where the rest of the deep south is going to vote in later primaries.

[Perky]

16. .

[riderinthestorm]

19. And for that reason he will be Bobby Kennedy'd.

:cry: Wish it weren't so but even more importantly is the FACT that Obama hasn't yet been coerced into the BFEE/Halliburton/PNAC scheme o'things.

He's got to go because he is so scary to the Rethugs.

[TwilightGardener]

22. I am afraid of a very brutal offensive against him,

should he overtake HRC in the polls.

[tammywammy]

27. That I agree with

I don't think the Cliton campaign will think twice about any punches they pull. i.e. Just like her campaign asking for Obama to apologize for Geffen. I think we're already seeing the Cliton campaign start against Obama, and it's only going to get worse.

I think Obama knows what he's in for, and I hope he continues to stand up against those that chose to denouce him through smear campaigns (i.e. the madrassa rumor).

[riderinthestorm]

31. I worry that he'll be shot. Forget brutal politics (he is a vet in IL politics)

which are among the roughest, if not THE roughest, in our country. Obama knows how to play tough. Which is why the Rethugs need him dead. I am really fearful for his safety.

[Odin2005]

35. Spare me the conspiracy theory crap.

[Clark2008]

28. I love the naivete on this board.

It's fetching.

No, they're really NOT scared of him.

Really.

Take a walk outside of the blue bubble for just a bit. Please.

That said, I like Obama, but I don't believe for one second that the Republicans are scared of him... or Hillary... or Edwards.

[riderinthestorm]

30. I live in the reddest of red bubbles in the US (Dupage Co. Il)

and I regularly hear that Obama should be shot dead - this is standing around on my daughter's elementary schoolyard. This is in IL which elected him.

Obama was keen enough to take out the credible Rethug opponent - Jim Ryan - in IL, and the tattered Rethugs in IL replaced Jim Ryan with Alan Keyes. Obama won in a walk. Obama isn't a novice to politics, he has survived one of our nation's toughest crucibles which is Illinois politics. The Rethugs ARE scared of him in Illinois, and they are scared of him elsewhere. He's got "the stuff" - so much so that I fear for his life.

[TwilightGardener]

32. You know, I worry too, deep deep down

about that sort of thing. This ruthless neocon admin already has tons of blood on its hands from the war, and I wouldn't put it past them to try anything to retain power to keep big oil's profits humming. If I were Obama or Chuck Hagel, I would be most worried. For Obama, he doesn't have the Clinton machine to watch his back the way Hillary does--he is still a relative newcomer in Washington, and I think he is the most significant Dem threat to the GOP. For Hagel, he probably knows too much about incriminating stuff inside his own party and the WH (he was on the short list for VP in 2000), and Lord knows he's a loose cannon--wouldn't be afraid to spill the dirt (or bring up impeachment).

[rebel with a cause]

41. Obama may not have the Clinton machine

but he has plenty of people watching his back just from Illinois, including our other Senator Dick Durbin. I pity the fool that has to deal with Durbin. ;-)

If the republicans had Barack killed, there would be all HE** break loose and I do believe we would have a race/civil war on our hands. Not because he is the "Black candidate" but because frankly I think the people in the African American communities are tired of us (meaning the USA government/whites in power) killing any strong "Black leader" that they see as a threat: as well they should be. I think that any violence against Barack would be one of the stupidest moves ever to be done, but this administration is known for their stupidity, so I won't say it never could happen. There is also the chance of this happening due to a Democrat opponent, and honestly this is one election that I would not overlook that possibility, and I am not talking about only one candidate either.

What I do say is, that Barack is smart. He had people with him here in Illinois in 2004 and he will have more people watching over him now. He knows this country's history and he knows the danger, and he does not have the martyr syndrome that makes he want to die for a cause. I worry about Barack because I like him, but I will never be one that says he should not run because he might be assassinated. Gobama!

[TwilightGardener]

44. Good post...also, concerning race riots...

I also think that any OVERT racism directed at him would spark a huge backlash--I think GOPers are not quite dumb enough to try that. But I am expecting it covertly...like John McCain in SC with his "black" daughter.

[Odin2005]

36. The Pukes are scared of anyone who opposes politics as usual.

[PaDem]

37. It isn't Obama that they are afraid of............

it's losing power. It's clear to me that Obama is the candidate they think has the best chance to win a general election. It boggles my mind that so many folks don't see that.

[skipos]

43. A 3% boost in the white vote would be more than a 25% boost in the black vote

Not that all whites will vote for the white candidate and all blacks will vote for the black, but we have to admit that there will probably be plenty of first time KKK type voters coming out of the woodwork if Obama is our nominee. ANother thing is that Obama has very, very little chance of winning most southern states. In MS, which has the highest % of blacks, about 90% of blacks voted for Kerry, and 90% voted of whites voted for Bush. Bush won the state by a huge 20% margin. Even if the black vote DOUBLED, and the white vote stayed the same, Obama wouldn't win it.

In a close election, I think that AR and VA are the most winnable, most other states, especially the ones George Wallace won, are unlikely. The numbers indicate even Edwards wouldn't win NC even if he was the nominee. NC usually votes 13% more republican than the rest of the country, and Presidential nominees usually get a 10% boost in their homestate.

I am not poo pooing an Obama nomination, I wouldnt' be surprised if he ends up being my pick, however, we need to be realistic about his electoral prospects.

[Perky]

49. Your numbers are wrong

look at the black vote vs black population in Southern statss
Look at white vote and the white population in SOuthern states.


Assume that 90% of the Black voting in previous elections voted Democratic
Assum 95% of the new Black voters would vote for Obama

Now take a look at the White Vote:

About 1 in 3 white voters voted for Kerry in the deep SOuth/ 2 of three voted for Bush.
Assume that number holds in 2008 (No "atonement factor", no bump from disaffected white youth or conservatives who ar just tired of the the War and want us out)

Even assuming a 5% new white voters(anti-Obama voters) and no white Obama bump things get alot close in many states.

[porphyrian]

51. If they were scared of Obama, they wouldn't be talking about him so much.

Frankly, I think he's their second Democratic choice. If they're scared of anyone, it's Gore.

[Warren DeMontague]

52. Yup. The thought of Gore running scares the piss out of them. It's important to look at

what they (and their media shills) are not saying.. When they were making noise in 2004 about how they were "afraid" of Kerry and Karl Rove "couldn't wait" to run against Dean-- the reality was the exact opposite, I think.

[porphyrian]

54. Absolutely. Ironically, it may have been our own party that "killed" Dean's run. - n/t

[Warren DeMontague]

55. I'm the first to admit that I should have gone with my gut that year.

I bought into the hype about Kerry being the 'unbeatable' candidate.

[Perky]

57. Same with Gore in 2000

Same with Gore in 2008
Gore's support is not substantial outside the netizen world.

And He is not going to rununless it look like Hillary is going to win it. If he is not in by July he is not going to run.

[Warren DeMontague]

62. I think Gore's support will be VERY substantial if he gets in.

Not only did he win in 2000, the guy got more votes than Bill Clinton ever did. More votes than any Democrat ever HAS.

I'm going to wait until September or so before I give up on the guy, but you're right about one thing- sooner or later, we'll know if he's running or not.

[bearfan454]

53. You know they are scared shitless of Obama winning

Watch them say the voting machines have to go now.

[Virginia Dare]

58. I think they're scared to death, period...

their prospects are looking very dim at this juncture.

[Alcibiades]

61. Obama is good--he needs to get the message out

about his experience in Illinois. With Republicons attacking the so-called "Washington elite", a one-term senator WITH experience as a state legislator is more credible than one without, such as, say, my own state's John Edwards.

As far as increasing the black vote goes, I have a hard time imagining how that will happen. The black community has been turning out, and an Obama nomination might mean some increase, but there are no big gains to be had there. (Not that resources don't need to be put into GOTV in black areas, we will need to pour it on like we did last time--just that we shouldn't expect anything unrealistic in terms of turnout increases.) A 25% increase in black voter turnout? I really, really doubt it. (Would love it, but doubt it's possible.)

[Perky]

64. 14 million voting age blacks in the south

65% claim they have registered. (It's 72% for Whites)
55% reported voting. (7,5 Million) (it's 65% for whites)

3 Million votes seperated Kerry and Bush in the deep south (excluded are Texas, Florida and Virginia)

Kerry got 42% across the Deep south. It is not about winning it is about making some states competitive so that they do not have as much to spend in Ohio, Virginia, Maine, Iowa and Missouri.

[Alcibiades]

67. I get that

and I'll try like hell to get the nominee the electoral votes of our state, North Carolina. According to what I've seen, the black turnout in 2004 was 60%, which reflected a lot of things. To get it up 25% more would be to get it to 85%. To put that into perspective, compare it to the rate for a high-turnout demographic, women with advanced degrees (one of the demographics that vote most), who voted at only an 80% rate in 2004. Blacks face many, many more obstacles to voting that this groups (though this group includes some black women, of course--by definition, the ones who would face the fewest such obstacles and the ones who would overcome them most probably in any event).

We could get 85% rates among some subgroups in the black community. It could hit that for elderly women who attend church, for example. Among other subgroups, I am less hopeful. Young people vote less, poor people vote less, people with less formal education vote less. Among poor, young, less-educated blacks, I think the turnout will be low, as usual, because this group faces the greatest obstacles to voting, plus they have not acquired the habit yet.

Anyway, for me, as a Southern Democrat, it is about winning, and about enfranchising people. To shave off one border state from the southern baptist theocracy would be a big victory, and the black vote would be an important component of any such victory. I just think it's not realistic to get the black community, as large and diverse as it is, to vote at the rate equal to or greater than the demographic groups that have the highest levels of turnout. If we can get registration up to 75% and voting up to 65%, I'll be pleased as punch.

[NDP]

65. Wrong. I think they would love to have Obama, so that they could have fun with his name and

his smoking and his cocaine use.

And yes, I know that Bush has done everything wrong that one could possibly do including drugs, but the Democrats don't harp about it like the Republicans would love to do with Obama.

I would hate for 2008 to be all about race or gender.

[Bronyraurus]

66. They should be