7/15 Election Model: Obama 420EV...2008 Election Fraud Scenario Analysis...Understanding 2004 Fraud

[tiptoe]

2008 ELECTION MODEL
A  Monte Carlo  Electoral  Vote  Simulation

TruthIsAll

Updated: July 15

?click">Chart   State Poll Aggregate + Projection Trend

?click">Chart   National 5-Poll Moving Average Projection

?click">Chart   State vs. National: Vote Share Projection Trends

?click">Chart   Battleground-State Polls

?click">Chart   Battleground-State Win Probability

?click">Chart   Electoral Vote + Win Probability Trend

?click">Chart   Electoral Vote + Projected Vote Share Trend

?click">Chart   Undecided Voter Allocation + Win Probability

?click">Chart   Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials

?click">Chart   Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency

 2008 Election Model Fraud Analyzer 

Uncounted  &  Switched Votes

?click">Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Vote Share

?click">Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Electoral Vote

 

“I’m glad that TIA raises the questions. A Top 10 list.”  — Sancho

 

This
State
National
State
National
Monte  Carlo
Simulation

Update
Poll
5-Poll
2-party
2-party
Expected

7/15/2008
Aggregate
Average
Projection
Projection
ELECTORAL VOTE

Obama
McCain
 45.53 
 39.03 
 47.20 
 42.00 
54.79
45.21
53.92
46.08
420
118

    

15-Poll

Last Poll

Sample

 

NATIONAL MODEL

 

5-Poll Mov Avg

 

5-Poll MA, 2-party Proj

Poll MA

Poll

Trend
                      
Gallup
Rasmussen
ABC/WP
CBS/NYT
Quinnipiac

Newsweek
Pew Resrch
CNN
DemCorp
Time

Bloomberg
USA Today
Newsweek
FOX
Rasmussen

Date
        
7/14
7/14
7/13
7/14
7/13

7/10
6/29
6/29
6/25
6/25

6/23
6/19
6/19
6/18
6/18

Size
              
2637 RV
3000 LV
--
1796 RV
1725 LV

1037 RV
1574 RV
906 RV
2000 RV
805 RV

1115 RV
1310 LV
896 RV
900 RV
3000 LV

 

Obama
        
47
47
50
45
50

44
48
50
49
47

49
50
51
45
48

McCain
        
43
45
42
39
41

41
40
45
45
43

37
44
36
41
45

Spread
        
4
2
8
6
9

3
8
5
4
4

12
6
15
4
3

 

Obama
        
47.8
47.2
47.4
47.4
48.2

47.6
48.6
49.0
49.2
48.4

48.6
48.2
48.0
46.6
47.0

McCain
        
42.0
41.6
40.6
41.2
42.4

42.8
42.0
42.8
41.0
40.2

40.6
41.6
41.8
42.6
42.8

 

Obama
        
53.92
53.92
54.60
54.24
53.84

53.36
54.24
53.92
55.08
55.24

55.08
54.32
54.12
53.08
53.12

McCain
        
46.08
46.08
45.40
45.76
46.16

46.64
45.76
46.08
44.92
44.76

44.92
45.68
45.88
46.92
46.88

Diff
        
7.8
7.8
9.2
8.5
7.7

6.7
8.5
7.8
10.2
10.5

10.2
8.6
8.2
6.2
6.2

Win Prob
          
100.00
100.00
na
99.98
99.93

98.48
99.96
99.09
100.00
99.85

99.97
99.91
99.32
96.77
99.97

MoE
          
1.91%
1.79%
na
2.31%
2.36%

3.04%
2.47%
3.26%
2.19%
3.45%

2.93%
2.71%
3.27%
3.27%
1.79%

 

 

Assuming that Obama will win 60% of the undecided vote, then based on the latest state polls, the Election Model projects that he will win 54.8% of the two-party vote with 420 electoral votes — if the election is fraud-free and held today. With 55% of the undecided voters, he will have 54.0% with 393 electoral votes. Since Obama won all 5000 Monte Carlo simulation election trials, his electoral vote win probability is 100%.

Based on the latest 5 national polls average projection (including just-released NYT/CBS and ABC polls), he would win 53.92% of the popular vote.

One might ask “What are you smoking? Nothing is 100%”. Well, based on the results of 5000 Monte Carlo simulation trials, the win probability is 100%.

...
FULL REPORT: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=505613&mesg_id=505613

But there’s a catch: It’s called Election Fraud.

The Democratic True Vote is always greater than the Recorded Vote.
A massive voter registration and GOTV effort is required to overcome the fraud.

• Approximately 3–4 million Obama votes will be uncounted.

Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes conventional wisdom. But that’s to be expected. Although the media commissioned the exit polls which indicated that Kerry won by 5%, they don’t question the mathematically impossible Final Exit Poll which was forced to match a corrupt vote count. Bush won the corrupt Recorded vote but lost the True vote. Past is Prologue. It would be foolish to assume a fraud-free election.

That’s why the Election Model now includes a fraud scenario analysis. Even assuming that 4% of total votes cast will be uncounted, McCain would need at least 10% of Obama’s votes switched to his column to win. In 2004 approximately 3% of all votes cast were uncounted. Bush stole 8.0% of Kerry’s votes (analysis below) to obtain his 3.0 million vote “mandate”.

Zogby was correct in 2004 when he projected that Kerry would win. Unfortunately, Bush won a rigged Recorded vote. Kerry won the True vote, but like Three-Card Monte, what you see is not what you get. Election forecasters and complicit media pundits who projected a Bush win avoid discussing the overwhelming evidence that the election was stolen. On the contrary, a complicit media relentlessly promotes the fictional propaganda that Bush won TWO elections.

These graphs display the effects of uncounted and switched votes on Obama's projected EV and 2-party vote share.
?click">Effect of uncounted and switched votes on the projected vote share
?click">Effect of uncounted and switched votes on the electoral vote
...
The bottom line is: ...

MORE HERE: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=505613&mesg_id=505613

2004 Election Model Review

On Election Day 2004, Bush had a 48% approval rating.

• The Final 2004 Election Model projected that Kerry would win 337 – 201 EV with 51.8%.
  
• Preliminary State and National exit polls also indicated that Kerry won.
  
• Bush was the official winner of the Recorded Vote by 50.7 – 48.3% with 286 EV.
  
  And so the Final National Exit poll was 'forced' to match the fraudulent Recorded Vote.
  
  Final state projections and national exit polls are shown here.

The model produced a startling confirmation of the state and national models.

• In the base case scenario, Kerry was assumed to win 75% of the undecided vote.
  
• The Monte Carlo simulation determined that he would win 337 electoral votes.
  
• Both models projected Kerry the winner with 51.8% of the two-party vote.
  The final 5 national poll average projection was 51.8%.
  The final 18 national poll average projection was 51.6%.

The Election Model projections were based on state and national Pre-election polls.

• Kerry’s projected vote share was within 2.0% of his exit poll share in 23 states.
• The 12:22am Preliminary National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry won by 51 – 48%.

Exit Pollsters Edison-Mitofsky released their 2004 Evaluation report in Jan. 2005.

• E-M discussed polling methodology and provided summary statistics by state, region and voting method.
  
• Within Precinct Error (WPE) is the average difference between unadjusted exit poll margin and recorded vote count margin.
  It is more appropriate to call it Within Precinct Discrepancy (WPD).
  Kerry won the unadjusted (WPD) aggregate state exit poll by 52.0 – 47.0% (average of three measures).

                Unadjusted Exit Poll             Recorded Vote Count
         EV     Kerry  Bush   Margin KEV     Kerry  Bush   Margin KEV          WPE/WPD
  WtdAv TOTAL   51.95  47.05  4.91   337     48.27  50.73  (2.46) 251           7.37 % 

The state exit poll WPD:

• exceeded 6% in 25 states for Bush and none for Kerry (equivalent to exceeding a 3% MoE)
• exceeded 4% in 34 states for Bush and just 2 for Kerry.
  
• was less than 2% in 8 heavily Republican states (AR, ID, IN, KS, KY, MT, OK and TN).
  
• was less than 2% in just 1 Democratic state (OR), the only state which votes 100% by paper ballot.

The 1:25pm FINAL National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry lost by 48 – 51%.

• All FINAL National Exit Polls are 'forced' to match the Recorded Vote.
  
• The 'forcing' of the 2004 Exit Poll numbers resulted in IMPOSSIBLE demographics.
  
  
  Either the state and national Pre-election and Exit Polls were wrong, or the Recorded Vote was fraudulent.

GO HERE TO RECOMMEND: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=505613&mesg_id=505613

[tiptoe]

1. If you like the OP, give it a REC!

[JeffR]

2. K & R!

:kick: :kick: :kick:

[tiptoe]

6. a three-assed K&R! thanks! nt

[Dover]

3. I'm astounded anyone would believe the polls that have Obama & McCain neck and neck.

A sure sign that 'something's up' once again.

In reality McCain might have 30%

[tiptoe]

4. I agree.

Obama was gaining on McCain in his own state (before the head-to-head campaign's really even started!), whereupon CNN spun a 50-45 with 5% undecided a "dead heat" (!). Obama will be getting most of the UNDECIDEDS, being the "lesser-known quantity" relative to McCain: a conservative 60% UVA to Obama would correspond to a projected 53% - 47% two-party vote.

The pollsters, as the OP points out, never talk about fraud.

[tiptoe]

5. note: Be sure to press Refresh to view the latest updated graphs. nt

[KharmaTrain]

7. 45%...Gramps Line Of Death

And TIA's numbers show it as others do...Gramps has a real tough time getting up around 45% in any key demographic...if he can't raise that number, he's screwed...it won't even be close enough to steal. Throw in 3-5% for Barr and Gramps is in a real world of hurt.

I don't pay a lot of attention to national numbers, I prefer the state ones as that's where the election will be decided. The national ones are more pyschological...it drives what the bobbleheads on TV yak about and can boost the spirits of a campaign, but it's winning the states that matter and if you look at those numbers, it looks even worse for Gramps.

Also, downticket races are gonna have a big affect this year. There are a lot of open seats and contested races that will bring out more Democrats...numbers that you can't build into any political model.

[rusty fender]

8. They're definitely going to try to steal it--

remember when McCain claimed that he will close the gap in the 48 hours before the election? That'll be their meme if the theft is "successful."

[wryter2000]

9. Am I right in understanding it this way?

What you're saying is (as of today) McCain isn't close enough for them to steal it.