Who is there to come to the aid of Georgia with troops on the ground?

[RB TexLa]

Who?

[daleo]

1. Good question

Nobody that I can think of. If the U.S. wanted to respond, I think it would have to be via cruise missiles and strategic bombers. God knows where that would lead.

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. Techically we are now combatants by flying their troops home

taht said, NATO is overstretched and so are we...

And given how things stand right now... spring of 1914... that's the feeling... we may see Turkey enter this (treaties) as well as other regional powers

Remember that spring didn't feel like anything too ominous... but then it led to summer...

[Adsos Letter]

9. Except that I don't see the crystallization of alliances in this situation....

that made WWI so difficult to stop. Plus, the mobilizations, and reactions to them by everyone involved, aren't of the same nature.

At this point the Russians have already "crossed Belgium" without the obligatory responses by any other powers.

[nadinbrzezinski]

21. Spring, not summer, this is Serbia and Montenegro, the Balkan wars

not the fall... we are not even close to Belgium yet

That said, some of the alliances are not there... and the conflict goes all the way to... about a thousand years in the past

[Adsos Letter]

24. OK...but I still don't see the system of alliances....

tied to predetermined mobilization schedules that would turn this into another major war in Europe.

I just don't see it; and I hope I'm right.

[nadinbrzezinski]

25. Look at turkey... who has a treaty to defend the muslim population

while Russia has a treaty to defend the christian population

If turkey gets actively involved, to fulfill her treaty, they can call upon Article Five of the Nato Charter...

that brings Nato into the fray.

[Adsos Letter]

27. Is Turkey mobilizing "just in case" as the nations did in WWI?

Do you expect the Turks to face off against Russia?

[nadinbrzezinski]

29. As I said, we are still in the Balkan Wars phase

nobody mobilized in the spring, beyond Montenegro and Serbia, or the secret intelligence services of multiple players

Nobody went there until Archduke Ferdinand got shot

But I'd keep my eyes on Turkey... if they start mobilizing beyond the expected, there is shooting near our borders, lets place a battalion or two on the border... then I'd start getting really nervous.

[Adsos Letter]

30. Well...I don't need to read the conventions...

I'll take your word for it about the combatancy issue. Still, I can't see Turkey doing anything other than being very, very careful about how they deal with this situation. Their military is well armed and well trained, but I just can't see them doing anything that would give the Russians a reason to join them in an escalation, or expand the war. Not that war ever makes much sense...

[nadinbrzezinski]

31. "Not that war ever makes much sense..."

Ain't that the truth?

Me, keeping my eyes on Turkish news right now, and Asia Times online

[Adsos Letter]

32. My hope is that the speed of communications...

the ability to get diplomats on the move, the memories of what major European land wars are like, and a less stridently "militaristic" spirit (as existed among the populations of Europe, generally, in the decade running up to 1914 ) will combine with a more fluid system of diplomacy to resolve this thing without a further expansion.

Georgia began the major fighting this week; I would very much like to know what signals they interpreted to give them the idea that either:
A. Russia would protest but not react,

or

B. That the US would support them militarily (and I mean with air power, equipment, intelligence, etc.)

[nadinbrzezinski]

35. Do far we are not doing more than providing transport

and the turks are playing it cool (they are part of NATO), so far, so good...

But we also provoked some of this by putting missile systems in the check republic, we were told that if we did that, by the russians, they'd be consequences.

It is not quite 1914, but history never repeat itself and I do hope that things cool down FAST

[Adsos Letter]

36. " not quite 1914, but history never repeat itself and I do hope that things cool down FAST"

I agree...and the benefits we have gained since 1914 could easily be negated by boneheaded, ill-considered, inflammatory statements from any of the parties involved...especially our current "leader."

As others have pointed out, the longer-term effects of all this may manifest in the territories formerly under Soviet occupation.

Time for bed...sweet dreams to you! :hi:

[Tim4319]

3. Let's see?

We have the Cobb County, Fulton County, and Dekalb County police departments. They at least takes care of the Atlanta area.

[RB TexLa]

5. Wow, making a joke about the state and the country having the same name, you best get that bit

copyrighted before someone steals your idea.

[magellan]

4. Maybe the same people who opposed enforced regime change in Iraq

Rebels. Not that they'll change anything, but they'll be a thorn in Russia's side for as long as it holds onto Georgia.

[alcibiades_mystery]

6. Nobody is sending troops against the Russians

That's just fantasy.

It's all over but the negotiating about the ports and oil facilities.

[murray hill farm]

18. It is still all about oil and gas.

Resource wars that will go on and on. Russia will control the pipe line..no one will do anything to stop them..and everyone knows that no one will do anything to stop them. Europe is dependent on whatever country controls the oil and gas and they know it will be Russia...and knowing that they will bow to the controler to be...that being Russia. This is a done deal.

[nadinbrzezinski]

22. Its not just about oil and gas

it is about Peter the great and the tribal \ regional allegiances and hates going back at least one thousand years

If there wasn't an oil pipeline there would still be conflict

[seemslikeadream]

7. Maybe some mercenaries

:shrug:

[Adsos Letter]

8. Only someone willing to engage the Russians in a full-on war...

I don't see anyone pining for that experience. My unprofessional opinion is that any significant military support would only lead to escalation on Russia's part. I don't think anyone is quite ready to take that step.

Just my opinion.

[flamingdem]

10. So much for Nato!

Looks like Georgia won't be joining Nato now.

[Hardrada]

11. Maybe that Texas rich harpie who sponsored Charlie Wilson's War

should part with a few more bucks for this one.

[tuckessee]

12. US airpower from Incirlik, Turkey

At least that's what the Georgians think.

There was a Georgian member of parliament who is on their Foreign Affairs committee on the BBC radio who requested US military help, specifically wanting air strikes launched from the US Air Base at Incirlik.

He added quickly and clearly that he was requesting this in his "official capacity".

[Adsos Letter]

14. I suspect (just shooting from the lip here)....

that one of the (several) things Georgia misunderstands is that we are in the process of trying to pick a fight with Iran (at least it appears that some of the powers-that-be are) and we are pretty unlikely to do anything that would cause Russia to throw her unqualified military support behind Iran.

I wonder what message they were getting that suggested they could pull of an assault on South Ossetia?

[Dr.Phool]

15. And I'd tell him in an official capacity, "No can do".

Our military is already bogged down in 2 wars, looking for a 3rd. They're already exhausted, and we're broke.

I'm really surprised it took Russia this long to fight back, when we started trying to get their former satellites to join NATO, and started arming them. Anybody with a clue, could have seen this coming 2 or 3 years ago.

Now Chimpolini's arrogance is getting him bent over a barrel.

[tuckessee]

17. Here's a scary quote from Saakashvili in Monday's USA Today....

From the main article.....

".....Saakashvili said he had spoken to Bush, who had signalled his 'full support'
'He understands that it's not really about Georgia but in a certain sense it's also an aggression against America'......"

.

Let's hope Saakashvili is either deelusional or he misunderstood Bush.

*edit to correct my typo in quote*

[Dr.Phool]

40. I think Bush is delusional and Saakashvili believed him.

[seemslikeadream]

13. We're good for a taxi ride

10 hours ago: Georgian soldiers arrive at an airbase in Tbilisi from Iraq, August 11, 2008. President Mikheil Saakashvili urged his Western allies to provide more than just moral support and aid to confront Russia in Georgia's conflict over the separatist region of South Ossetia.

[Adsos Letter]

16. And I suspect (as others have speculated) ...

that that taxi service probably only constitutes fulfillment of a pre-existing agreement. I don't think it makes us "technical combatants," but I could certainly be wrong about the international law issues.

[nadinbrzezinski]

23. We are flying them into a region in conflict, it makes us active combatants

the russians have shown restraint...

But this will end up in retaliation in other ways

[Adsos Letter]

26. I don't know the International Law on this...

we may have had a pre-existing agreement with all of our allies in Iraq to assist in returning them to their nation in case of an outside threat or attack.

I'm not convinced that it makes us, either de jure or de facto, combatants.

[nadinbrzezinski]

28. It does... read the conventions

and it does de facto

Every time any of those C-5 Galaxy enter the combat air space... I get tingles... as a Russian pilot would be very well justified to shoot, even by "accident."

It is one of those that the only way we woudl be free and clear and not be playing into it is if these combat troops were not armed.

That is where you get wiggle room, or if you were transporting humanitarian aid.

But we are transporting active combatants into an active combat zone

[depakid]

19. Why would anyone want to?

The Georgians provoked this war, shelling the South Ossetian captial and causing thousands of civilian casualties in the process.

[WorseBeforeBetter]

34. And who backs the Georgians? (n/t)

[depakid]

41. Bush and the neocons

drew them into Iraq, made repeated overtures to expand NATO into the Caucasus (against the wishes of the Europeans), irritated the Russians with American military presence and egged on Georgian nationalism and terrtitorial ambitions in South Ossetia.

Saakashvili hitched his wagon to the wong star- and now the entire country is paying the predictable price.

[HCE SuiGeneris]

20. I hear Kristol, Kagan and Cheney are available!

We can have Lieberman and McCain't lead them too... Whoohoo!

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

33. Hopefully, no one is stupid enough to send troops.

But, considering the amount of stupidity prevalent in D.C. we can fear the worst.

[KharmaTrain]

37. What's Left Will Head For The Hills...

Georgia is a very mountainous country...lots of places for a "liberation movement" to set up and conduct a guerilla war...or attempt to. The bottom line is the pipeline...the main reason the BFEE was there in the first place...and if they can't control it, they'll gladly pay to make sure it doesn't operate at all. The more oil that stays in the ground, the more the Texas wells and oil stocks are worth.

Other than that...the Georgians are SOL. They're a small Christian country surrounded by Russia and predominately Arab republics. The neo-cons plans for "world domination" have yet another victim....and the Georgian people, who have suffered for centuries are in for another dark period. Methinks the George Booooosh Road in Tblisi will soon have a new name..."Mud Drive". Maybe they'll also name a sanitation plant after him.

[tkmorris]

38. Perhaps they should have considered that before the blitzkrieg

of South Ossetia. Oops.

[Franc_Lee]

39. Cheney would say, send in the boy scouts...