Phoenix Expert Sees Real Estate Boom Ahead

[helderheid]

Cross your fingers this guy is right!

Author H. L. Quist is on record in calling all the past five boom and bust cycles in the US since 1990.

Phoenix, AZ (PRWEB) August 10, 2008 -- H L Quist, a Valley resident for thirty-six years, believes that the local real estate market will bottom this year and forecasts another boom starting in 2009. In April, 2005, H. L. Quist forecasted that the "Greenspan Plan" to promote all forms of consumer borrowing and spending would implode causing the real estate and credit meltdown aftermath experienced in 2007 and 2008.

Quist, who has taught "Cycles & Trends in Real Estate at the Southwestern School of Real Estate for the past fifteen years, says that, "All markets move on fundamentals and emotion. The new 'Housing & Economic Recovery Act of 2008' just passed by Congress and signed into law by President Bush, changes the fundamentals. The bill greatly expands the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) which will insure up to $300 billion in new loans for desparate homeowners who cannot qualify for FHA loans under the existing rules and law. The new FHA along with the Hope Now Alliance will slow the surge in foreclosures permitting the market psychology to also change."

"Based upon information available as of this date, here's an example of how the new FHA program might work," explains Quist.

"A homeowner (who has spent at least 31% of their income on a mortgage)has an existing high interest sub-prime loan with (let's say)Countrywide Financial. The loan may already be in default as is 48% of Countrywide's $30 billion sub-prime portfolio. The borrower can refinance with the new FHA on a 30-year fixed rate loan at an interest rate significantly lower than any prime borrower on a conventional basis. Countrywide agrees to write down their mortgage to 90% of the current appraised value in exchange for a new loan guaranteed by FHA.The borrower presumably now has a loan that is affordable, Countrywide owns a loan that is fully valued on its balance sheet and the risk of default is assumed by taxpayers."

Quist, now retired, worked thirty-five years in financial services and ten as a real estate developer and is the author of "The Aftermath of Greed: Get Ready for the Coming Inflationary Boom." He is also the author of 3 other non-fiction and fiction books.

Contact:
H L Quist
602-840-4117
http://theaftermathofgreed-updates.blogspot.com/

http://www.prweb.com/releases/2008/8/prweb1193434.htm

[Bob Dobbs]

1. I love his ironic damning of socialism

while touting the socialistic bailouts that he predicts will turn the housing market around.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

2. Sure. There is a boom ahead.

10-15-20 years in the future. Perhaps.

Right now, I would say the gentleman has been at the gold spray paint again.

[helderheid]

3. Author H. L. Quist is on record in calling all the past five boom and bust cycles in the US since

1990.

:shrug:

[QueenOfCalifornia]

7. This guy?

Yep, he thinks the price of airfare is going down too and that hairspray is a tasty dessert.

[phantom power]

4. I'd love to believe that, but I think he's smoking crack.

We may not soften up here quite as much as some areas, but we got sucked into the bubble event horizon and things are going to have to unwind a lot more before they get better.

[Warpy]

5. Until wealth gets scraped off the top

and recirculated at the bottom, nobody's going to have a boom anywhere, especially in overheated places like Phoenix where prices will continue to decline for at least the next several years.

Not only is there an oversupply of the wrong kind of housing--the trophy house--there is a dearth of qualified buyers who think their jobs are stable enough to risk taking on a 30 year debt.

The same thing is at work in my town, also in the southwest, although we never saw the real bubble. Builders here kept pace with speculator demand, though, so we do have the oversupply of the wrong type of housing.

[El Pinko]

6. AHAHAHAHA!!!!

That's a good one! Let's see... High crime - check. low quality of life with oppressive heat - check. Endless expanses of ugly, desolate sprawl - check. Depleted aquifers and brackish groundwater due to wasteful irrigation - check. Real estate that is STILL grossly overvalued in comparison with local incomes - check. Car-dependent sprawl in an aged of soaring fuel prices - check Cheaply-made, monotonous-looking stucco houses - check. Poorly diversified economy, heavily dependent on construction and snowbirds - check.

Average household income in Phoenix is $44K. The average price for a used house there in may was about 220K. That is five times the average income.

Long-term tends show houses consistently at 3X local mean household income. House prices have quite a ways yet to drop in Phoenix. When the average sale price hits about $130K, then I'll start expecting a rebound, but no sooner.

The credit is simply no longer going to be there for people to buy houses that they cannot afford.

[helderheid]

8. eek your sig picture hurts my head.

I don't think he's talking about just Phoenix. Should be interesting to watch.

[El Pinko]

9. I'm not either.

Basically, aside from the rust belt and flyover country, most of the country's real estate is still grossly overinflated due to the 2002-2006 real estate speculation spree.

I personally am not crossing my fingers for real estate to "recover" because it is still too unaffordable to most people.

The last real estate "boom" was disastrous for working people, who were forced to pay exorbitant rents or were conned into taking out crazy loans that they couldn't afford on overpriced homes that have now dropped a third or more in value.

Despite all the economic fallout, I'm glad that an adjustment is finally happening, and fully expect it to continue for at least another 2 years or so, until home prices are back in line with incomes.