Prominent Neocon Francis Fukuyama: Iraq May Be Stable, But the War Was a Mistake

[sabra]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121876047023242841.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Iraq May Be Stable,
But the War Was a Mistake
By FRANCIS FUKUYAMA
August 15, 2008; Page A13


Sometime in May 2003, shortly after U.S. forces had taken Baghdad and President Bush landed on an aircraft carrier under the banner "Mission Accomplished," an old friend remarked that he thought the war was going pretty well so far. I shook my head and said I thought we were in for trouble.

I bet him that day that Iraq would be a mess in five years' time, a mess being defined as "you'll know it when you see it." I mentioned this bet to Bret Stephens three years later. He'd reviewed my book, "America at the Crossroads" in this newspaper, accusing me, among other things, of turning against the war only when public opinion had shifted. Mr. Stephens wanted to take the wager himself. And as he wrote in his column earlier this month, I conceded that he'd won by the narrow terms of the wager.

Iraq was a mess by any definition from the fall of 2003 to the beginning of this year. It is entirely possible that it will return to being a mess in the coming months and years. But I paid $100 to Mr. Stephens because a tremendous amount of progress has been made stabilizing Iraq as a result of President Bush's surge -- which has allowed Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to establish control over Baghdad and much of southern Iraq.

Though Iraq remains a very troubled country, virtually all of the trend lines -- Iraqi and U.S. casualties, government provision of basic services, and the ability of Iraqi forces to provide order -- have been moving in a positive direction for the past year.

What I absolutely did not concede, however, was the fact that this change meant that the war itself was worth it. By invading Iraq in the manner it did, the U.S. exacerbated all of the threats it faced prior to 2003. Recruitment into terrorist cells shot up all over the world. North Korea and Iran accelerated their development of nuclear weapons.

...

Republican presidential candidate John McCain says he was right in supporting the surge and that Democrat Barack Obama was wrong in opposing it. On this tactical issue I grant that Sen. McCain was right. But Sen. Obama was right on the much more important strategic question of whether the war itself was a prudent policy, and here Mr. McCain remains as wrong as ever.

[stray cat]

1. What was it McCain said - "Nations don't invade sovereign nations?"

[sabra]

2. Fukuyama goes to say that he is supporting Obama for president...

[Romulox]

5. Ummmm, hoooray? nt

[sabra]

6. not sure hooray - but prolly making many conservatives heads explode...

[C_U_L8R]

3. This has got to be the funniest thing I've read all day

Wow. It's stunning how much neocons can delude themselves with their own bullshit.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

4. Well, good for him

But why aren't these obviously intelligent and rational people ever around when it might really make a difference?!!! People like us whom saw Bush's invasion/occupation of Iraq for the mistake it was long BEFORE it became clear to everybody else kept getting sidelined, ignored, shouted down, and labeled traitors (or worse) by people like Mr. Fukayama, Powell, and, of course, the MSM whenever we tried to say anything that might have PREVENTED us from getting into the mess we're currently in (whether or not Bush, McCain, et. al want to admit that it IS a mess, "surge" or no "surge"!). Heck, we haven't been able to get OUT of the mess even though nearly everybody agrees that invading Iraq was a bad idea because of at least some of the same people (with the active collaboration of the MSM) have successfully managed to keep anti-war voices relegated to the "fringes" of the political debate.