"The Russians Moved Because They Know You Are Weak"

[KamaAina]

The last two weeks have been a disaster for U.S. (Bush**/McCombover) foreign policy.

http://www.slate.com/id/2198214/pagenum/all/#page_start

Through the first days of the crisis in the Caucasus, all eyes have been on the suffering of the Georgians and barbarism of the Russians. Both are indisputable. But now it is also time to recognize that the events of the last two weeks have been a disaster for U.S. foreign policy....

As others have pointed out, the sad fact is that the administration haphazardly started discovering the virtues of diplomacy in the last two years—think of the turnarounds on Iran, North Korea, and the Middle East peace process. In the relationship with Russia, that has also been evident in the efforts to ameliorate concerns over the Central European missile-defense program. But the last quarter of an administration is the wrong time to discover statecraft. And we are very far from the foreign policy envisioned by Condoleezza Rice in her 2000 Foreign Affairs manifesto for candidate Bush's foreign policy, which promised a new focus on "comprehensive relationships with the big powers, particularly Russia and China, that can and will mold the character of the international political system." As Rice wrote then but quickly seems to have forgotten, "These states are capable of disruption on a grand scale, and their fits of anger or acts of beneficence affect hundreds of millions of people."

There is another aspect of the current crisis that is made in America. It was summed up by a European diplomat who told me last week, "The Russians moved because they know you are weak." He hardly needed to explain. With the U.S. military overstretched and publicly complaining about not having enough troops for Afghanistan, Moscow knew it had a propitious moment. Had we not been so bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan, the White House—which has been watching this crisis build for months—might have left a thousand or so troops in Georgia after our last joint exercise or sent more warships for a visit to the Black Sea. Few would argue that we should get into a shooting match with the Russians over Georgia. But the presence of U.S. forces on the ground, or even the knowledge that there was a significant reserve available in Europe, might have given the Russians pause or at least a healthy fear of miscalculation. As it was, they had a perfect set of circumstances for their strike.

Chalk it up as another indirect cost of the U.S. engagement in Iraq—of the fact that for most of Bush's tenure in office, we have had an Iraq policy, not a foreign policy. Dick Cheney often repeats the platitude that "(t)errorist attacks are not caused by the use of strength. They are invited by the perception of weakness." Too bad that Cheney and the administration could only think about terrorists—of whom there were virtually none in Iraq—and not all the other American interests that would be undermined by palpable evidence of our weakness.

edit: square brackets screwed up quote

[CrispyQ]

1. "...for most of Bush's tenure in office, we have had an Iraq policy, not a foreign policy."

[Turbineguy]

2. Russia and the G.O.P, Partners for a Better Future!

The Russian invasion of Georgia has no doubt been a help to McCain and probably accounts for his Zogby Poll improvement. Given the lack of success of the war on terror, I.E., people in the US are no longer shitting their pants in fear, the Russians have supplanted Islamic fanatics as purveyors of fear. Russians no doubt recognize that the popularity of Obama around the world will not work in their favor as Obama will gather allies to the US instead of alienate them. A third (and perhaps even forth) term of Bush in the shape of McCain is a much better alternative. The lack of a serious threat against them will give them more time to build and control.

The Russians are masters at playing this game. In Lenin's day Chekka Chief Felix Dzerzhinsky had the West supplying money to run all of his intelligence operations. Look how successful their operations against the West were after WWII and right up to the end of the Soviet regime. Don't think for a minute this sort of stuff stopped when the Soviet Union collapsed. The Muscovites are and always have been empire builders whether Czarists, Communists or Capitalists.

And the recent high price of oil (a good deal of it thanks to US foreign policy) has given them plenty of money to finance their dreams of empire.

The Republicans have played this well too. The Whitehouse waited to see who won before throwing Georgian President, Saakashvili under the bus. If he had done well (by some miracle of incompetence on the part of the Russians, always a possibility) no doubt McCain would have received accolades for his advising the Georgians on a course of action during his visit just prior to the outbreak of hostilities.

It's a win-win situation for Russia and the GOP.

[KamaAina]

3. "the Russians have supplanted Islamic fanatics as purveyors of fear"

Indeed. It took Faux News* only until this past weekend to come up with an hour-long special, "Russia: The Angry Giant". :puke: For obvious reasons, I missed it, but I can imagine what the transcript reads like: "Oceania is at war with Eurasia. Oceania has always been at war with Eurasia..."

edit: spelling

[10 Year Freeper]

5. Doubt it

I doubt the Russians have the US elections in their calculus. They have their own interests to pursue and won't pay much attention to who the US president is.

Russia is less bound by world opinion than the US. They should not be underestimated...they have been surrounded by US interests and have good reason to be afraid.

[lpbk2713]

4. That's putting it very graciously.

Actually, the Russians moved because they know (and the whole world knows) our President is simple-minded.

[Selatius]

6. I think the Russians moved simply because the US was moving into Central Asia.

This was about geopolitical positioning on a continent-wide scale. South Ossetians are a small piece of the puzzle, but the fact that Saakashvili was stupid enough to use extremely disproportionate force in dealing with South Ossetians gave the Russians the perfect excuse to play military savior after Tskhinvali was burned to the ground by Georgian artillery guns.