Damnit, there is no way in hell this race is as close as the polls suggest... I have long term Repub

[Danieljay]

lican friends who are voting for Obama this year.

Have any of you seen anything quite like this?

[Contrary1]

1. I like this site the best, but it is based on polls also.

In New Mexico, Obama appears to be pulling away. He is now leading 53% to 40%. Like Nevada and Colorado, the state has a large Latino population favorably disposed to Obama. If Obama can win the Kerry states plus Iowa (which looks increasingly like it is in the bag for him) plus New Mexico, he has 264 electoral votes. That means he needs to win only one state out of the set: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Missouri, Colorado, and Nevada. McCain has to hold all six of these key swing states. (If Obama wins just Nevada, it becomes 269-269 and goes to the House. There will be a long posting about that scenario after the news of the conventions dies down.)

Florida is apparently tightening also and is now tied, with Obama holding an insignificant 1-point lead there. (The map show barely Republican because the value being used is the average of three polls taken this week..."

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[davekriss]

3. What did the map look like at this point in 2004?

Anyone have that data handy?

[Contrary1]

6. 2004 results map:

2004:


Today's poll:


http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

[davekriss]

9. Thanks, but...

...I'm curious what the pre-election polls looked like vs. the outcome. I'm amongst those that believe the election was stolen.

[Contrary1]

11. A big "Doh" on me...there's a link for that on the main page:

Today:


Aug. 28, 2004:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Aug28.html

[davekriss]

12. There certainly is a blue shift

That is encouraging. However I still worry (and would bet) that McIdiot and the Republithugs find a way to steal another election. Vote caging, strategic placement of voting machines, the machines themselves -- make it look close prior to the election, disenfranchise as many Democrats as possible, and finally manipulate the counts as needed to magically squeeze through a "miracle" win that contradicts and dumbfounds our exit pollsters, that seems to be the Republican operating model. If McIdiot wins this year that may be the final straw for me -- it's off to Europe, the U.K., Haiti, anywhere that'll have me!

[seabeyond]

4. i swear iowa, colorado, nevada and new mexico was with kerry

and then at a certain time i saw a change

[seabeyond]

2. my ten yr old told me today a white country club boy wants obama. this is amarillo texas

no way i say. this kid and parents hang with a group and they are not going ot go outside of the box. told hubby at dinner and he says he is hearing more and more people gonna vote obama. had one woman today where he was working sway she was voting for him. this is ALL a different feel than in the past, especially for this area. AND no one has run me off the road yet, lol i have obama sticker and coexist and are we a kinder and gentler nation, yet? i have seen a dozen obama stickers. no mccain.

[GreenPartyVoter]

5. I felt the same way in '04. Was so shocked when Kerry "lost". But wow this movement is

so much more on fire this time, don't you think?

[kwolf68]

7. Check the media

Have you noticed the Yahoo stories from the AP have been exceedingly negative. It's been a damn joke. Wonder if they roll that same shit out next week during the Republicants party.

[lonestarnot]

13. Yes as they are definitely going to go for the cheat! Look, it's all they've got. They know they

can't win.

[Ahpook]

8. The polls are fucked, but i got a feeling it doesn't matter anymore?

Look at 2000 and 2004 for reference. Who is going to do anything about it?

Honestly, the only one i hear screaming is Kucinich

We all know he can't get anywhere in this fucking storm alone.

[amuse bouche]

10. Don't take anything for granted