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XemaSab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-29-08 11:30 PM
Original message
Question about hurricanes
How wide is the path of destruction, and would this still be considered a "direct hit" even though it looks like the center will be 100+ miles from NOLA? :shrug:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0708W5_sm2+gif/023114W_sm.gif
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Catherine Vincent Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-29-08 11:35 PM
Response to Original message
1. Not sure but I don't think Katrina was a direct hit on NOLA.
Wasn't it more of a direct hit at Gulfport, Mississippi?
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TahitiNut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-29-08 11:40 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. Katrina wasn't as bad as it COULD have been if it had passed just to the west of NOLA.
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TahitiNut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-29-08 11:36 PM
Response to Original message
2. Here's its wind track so far ...
Edited on Fri Aug-29-08 11:49 PM by TahitiNut


After it intensifies, the track will be far wider but the hurricane force winds will remain about 50-75 miles wide. The MAJOR damage, however, will be the storm surge ... and that's what'll breach the levees. The northeast quadrant of the hurricane causes the greatest storm surge, so having it pass west of NOLA is bad news.
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Aviation Pro Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-29-08 11:40 PM
Response to Original message
4. The key is the quadrant and the convection....
....NOLA may not receive a direct hit, but Quadrant 1 (the Northeast quadrant) is where the strongest winds are found. Most people believe that the winds are the most destructive element of the hurricane, but in reality it's the storm surge, which, even if the storm is downgraded, can still carry a surge of higher intensity. This is what will affect NOLA given the current track.
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TahitiNut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-29-08 11:47 PM
Response to Reply #4
8. Yup. This animated GIF shows Katrina's landfall. The eye came just east of NOLA.
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orleans Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-30-08 04:51 AM
Response to Reply #8
15. looks to me like it is going in the oposite direction from the puke convention
now they'll have to come up with another excuse to cancel.
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dysfunctional press Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-29-08 11:41 PM
Response to Original message
5. they have no way of knowing where the center will be or how big the storm will be at this point...
it's all projection.

as far as damage from near misses are concerned- the size of the storm and of the surge matters. and so does what side of the eye you end up on.

:popcorn:
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Aviation Pro Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-29-08 11:57 PM
Response to Reply #5
9. The modeling has become very sophisticated...
....I was at the Key West WFO in 2005 and saw an application, which is still going through certification, that predicted the recurve that Ophelia took seven days ahead of the actual event. I have no doubt that the Gustav projections have a high degree of confidence.
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thevoiceofreason Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-29-08 11:41 PM
Response to Original message
6. Not a direct hit.
But NOLA would be on the "dirty" NE side. It would have a comparatively larger storm surge, heavy rains, and certainly tropical storm force winds. Levees could fail if the surge was high enough, and hit at high tide. And if the track moves 50 miles to the east (very easy), the situation gets twice as bad.
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eFriendly Donating Member (260 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-29-08 11:42 PM
Response to Original message
7. No, that would not be considered a "direct hit"
However, that does put NOLA on the worst side of the storm for the storm surge.
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jobycom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-30-08 12:03 AM
Response to Original message
10. Depends on the hurricane.
IIRC, Camille, in 69, had an eye that was only five miles wide. It went ashore in Pass Christian and Bay St. Louis, and barely affected anything on the other side of Biloxi Bay, 26 miles away. Katrina went ashore in the exact some location, and there was flooding as far away as Pensacola, Florida. Places like Mobile and Bayou Labatrie, AL, had extreme hurricane damage. And Katrina, in terms of wind speed and barometric pressure, was a Category 3, whereas Camille was a Cat 5, and the strongest to ever strike the mainland of the US. Katrina, though, had a larger and wider storm surge, and that is what caused the worse devestation on the Mississippi Coast. Houses that were high and dry during Camille were destroyed by Katrina.

So hurricanes vary drastically in size. Also, the rating system isn't always indicative of the damage it will cause. The worst ever was the Galveston Hurricane of 1900, and it was a Cat 3, they claim. It wiped out Galveston and killed 8,000 people. Katrina was second, and it was also a Cat 3.

As for New Orleans, Katrina glanced off it. The northwest quadrant of the hurricane is the weakest and smallest, and yet it burst levees, caused others to collapse, and flooded NOLA, then went on to devastate towns far inland with wind and constant rain. Because it was slow moving, immense, and because it made an odd turn just inland, it soaked and pounded inland regions far longer than Camille did, and caused worse damage further away from the center.

(Skip the next two paragraphs if you want, they are just detail).

New Orleans east got a Category 3 level hurricane at best from Katrina, and the it got a strong storm surge through the lakes that topped the levees along the lake. Part of the surge washed up the Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet canal (Mr. GO), and that storm topped the levees along Mr GO and flooded the Lower Ninth Ward. Mr. GO empties into the Industrial Canal, and the storm surge washed into that canal, and caused one of the levees to catastrophically fail during the early storm. This was probably the greatest cause of death, as rushing (as opposed to rising) waters flooded houses so quickly people had no time to respond, and washed houses off their foundations, etc. This was the levee some people think was blown, because it collapsed so loudly and violently. The same storm surge topped levees along Lake Pontchartrain to the north of New Orleans, and flooded a lot of regions there.

The Industrial Canal is just to the east of the main city of New Orleans (the French Quarters and downtown areas--what people think of as "the city"). The city (west of the IC) was hit by in effect a Category 2 or even 1 level storm. The wind damage was minimal for a hurricane, and this area suffered no direct storm surge. Here the rains and rising tides caused the levees along drainage canals to crumble, and caused pumps that normally lift water from the city into these canals (which flow into Lake Pontchartrain) to fail. This is what caused most of the flooding after the hurricane. Water was flowing from the canals into the Lake, but since the Lake was above normal (though not above its levees), the water could not flow into the Lake. When the levees crumbled (this is sort of in northern New Orleans) the drainage canals and the Lake itself began flowing into the city, until the water level neutralized. If you saw the footage of Senator Landreiu crying because of the meager efforts to patch a levee, this is the region she was crying over. This flooding continued to rise over several days, as water from the hurricane inland continued to drain into Pontchartrain, and then into the city.

So there were three types of flooding: topped levees (the water washed over them), broken levees (allowing water to gush or leak through), and rainwater flooding.

So the short answer is that a hurricane doesn't have to hit New Orleans directly to cause much of the devastation we saw with Katrina, because Katrina didn't hit New Orleans directly. Now, the damage we saw in Mississippi was the result of a direct hit, and was far worse initially than what New Orleans suffered. But New Orleans suffered more damage after the hurricane from failed levees and government inaction, whereas in Mississippi once the hurricane was passed, the damage ceased and they were ready to start cleaning up (not that that was easy).

Also, remember Rita, a couple weeks after Katrina. That hurricane didn't even touch New Orleans, yet it caused the newly repaired Industrial Canal levee to collapse again, just from the rain. The waters of the IC were still very high, so it did not take much to top the levee, though, so it should not collapse that easily again.
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XemaSab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-30-08 12:08 AM
Response to Reply #10
11. Thanks for the detail!
:hi:
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IrishBloodEngHeart Donating Member (815 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-30-08 12:24 AM
Response to Original message
12. i do catastrophe modeling for a living
Edited on Sat Aug-30-08 12:25 AM by IrishBloodEngHeart
Nobody knows how wide a storm will be, or exactly where it will hit this far out. I think somewhere between houston and mobile is a safe bet, most likely landfall in LA. The eastern side of the storm is stronger than the westernside, so east of the eye will see more damage.

Wind speed has nothing to do with flooding or storm surge, which can be major components of a loss.

Its also important to note a slow moving storm will cause more damage because it will have a longer stay in an area.
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Lex Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-30-08 12:58 AM
Response to Original message
13. As I understand it, north of the direct hit gets much worse damage than south.
For reasons having to do with the wind rotation.





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Dead_Parrot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-30-08 03:18 AM
Response to Original message
14. I think this is what you're after:


Figure 2. Extent of hurricane force (65 kt, yellow), storm force (50 kt, yellow-green) and tropical storm force (34 kt, green) winds, for the four quadrants of Gustav, as predicted by the National Hurricane Center at 11 am EDT August 29, 2008. Gustav's tropical storm-force winds are predicted to have a diameter of 270 nm (310 miles) when it approaches the coast of Louisiana. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina had a 380 nm (440 mile) diameter region of tropical storm force winds at landfall. Thus, Gustav's wind field is predicted to be 70% as large as Katrina's. Image is from our interactive Wundermap. Hurricane force winds are not included in the final two forecast points, because NHC did not make a forecast of these winds for those times.

From Jeff Master's blog
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Varies from 'cane to 'cane, of course.
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TahitiNut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-30-08 01:01 PM
Response to Reply #14
16. That's a very informative graphic. Thanks.
It should be carefully noted that *IF* Gustav's eye passes to the near west of NOLA, the MOST damaging winds in the NE quadrant will create a storm surge for NOLA itself comparable to Katrina, despite the somewhat smaller size of Gustav.
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jobycom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-30-08 03:22 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. Hard to say about the storm surge.
Nola isn't on the beach, so the surge has to come through the lakes or MR GO or through the wetlands to the south and west. I think there's enough land to the south and west to shear off the storm surge, so the wind pushing waters into the lakes and channels will be the big danger. Part of the reason Katrina (like Betsy and Camille) was so devastating was the direction it came ashore--right alongside New Orleans, to the east, over open water, at a northeasterly direction that angled the surge right into the lakes. Not only was the rotation of the hurricane optimum for driving the water westward, into the lakes, but it also pushed the waters southward and westward, because the top of the storm circle ran right into the opening of the lakes.

If the hurricane hits to the west, New Orleans will get the brunt of the wind and rain (and tornados), but the storm surge might be less dramatic, since the top of the circle would hit land, and the winds and storm surge hitting the lake would be more westerly and northerly, without that slight southern hook. The entrances to the lakes is at an odd angle. Of course, a strong surge will muscle across the wetlands and the soupie excuse for land mass to the south and east, but even that will lower the surge. I'd hate to be in Bell Chasse and Chalmette, but maybe some of that surge that flooded New Orleans East, and more likely some of the surge that topped the levees along the lake around Little Woods and west, would be less. A few feet less, and the levees might not be topped along the Lake and even along MR GO (and thank you to the ACoE for dragging their feet on sealing that off).

Then again, maybe not. The surge might blow over the land and hit the lake levees full force, and the city could be hit with the strongest winds, the fiercest rains, the most tornadoes, and topped and burst levees all at once. Then the hurricane is expected to stall over land, flooding rivers and bayous, whose runoff will then raise lake levels and maybe flood the region a second time from within.

All in all, I hope this darn thing goes west of Beaumont. I love that region, too, but it's much better situated to handle a hurricane.

Just thinking out loud as I continuously hit REFRESH on the weather page, WWLTV.com, and Sunherald.com, while avoiding calling my parents again and warning them of the dangers they are already aware of. When I was a kid I used to love hurricanes. :(
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