Time to leave New Orleans (Jeff Masters' blog on weather underground)

[stevedeshazer]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html



<snip>

I've been criticized by some for recommending people evacuate New Orleans, since that's not my job, and for saying "it's not natural" to live in a city that lies partially below sea level. I apologize for my remarks, they could have been phrased better. We had to build New Orleans where it is, and it is a great city that needs to be protected. The fact remains that New Orleans is highly vulnerable to storms like Gustav. Gustav is capable of bringing a storm surge to the city that will overwhelm the levees. Pre-Katrina wisdom suggested that the city needed 72 hours to evacuate. With the population about half of the pre-Katrina population, that lead time is about 60 hours. With Gustav likely to bring tropical storm force winds to the city by Monday afternoon, that means it's time to leave. I'm not an emergency manager, but I am a hurricane scientist. I understand the danger this storm poses better than most. The risk of staying in New Orleans is unacceptable. This is a huge and dangerous storm that has already killed a lot of people. The projected track and strength of Gustav is very close to that of Hurricane Betsy of 1965, the Category 3 hurricane that overwhelmed New Orleans' levees, and killed 76 people. It's time to get out of New Orleans.

<snip>

Gustav has expanded significantly in size, and will be a large and dangerous hurricane the remainder of its life. But will it rival Katrina in size, bringing an enormous Katrina-like storm surge to the coast? Well, our ability to predict size changes in hurricanes is poor. We do know that as storms move further from the Equator, they grow in size. This is because the Coriolis force increases as you move away from the Equator. An increased Coriolis force provides more spin to the storm, and the hurricane responds by growing in size. Thus, expect Gustav to grow in size as it approaches landfall along the Gulf coast. Hurricanes also tend to grow in size as they intensify. These two factors are taken into account when NHC makes a wind radius forecast. NHC is forecasting that Gustav's current diameter of tropical storm force (about 300 miles across) will remain about the same at landfall. This is about 70% as wide as the 440 mile-wide region of tropical storm force winds Hurricane Katrina had at landfall (5 am August 29, 2005).

A wind field of this size in a Category 4 hurricane traveling NW over the Gulf of Mexico is capable of carrying a 13-15 foot high storm tide to the coast in central Louisiana. NNW-moving storms bring the highest surge to this region of coast. Storm tide is the storm surge, adjusted upwards by 2 feet in case the storm hits at high tide.

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Masters has been right many times before. It's time to get out of New Orleans and the Gulf Coast NOW.

No schadenfreude gloating here. This is a very dangerous situation.

[SammyWinstonJack]

1. ...

:kick:

[uppityperson]

2. k&r for all LA coastal residents, and TX and MS with Gustav

Last flight out of N.O. leaves at 6 p.m. Sunday (nola.com story)

[stevedeshazer]

4. Thanks for that clue, here's a link . Cuba is getting hammered right now.

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2008/08/monster_gustav_hits_category_4.html

Monster Gustav hits Category 4



HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
120 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008


DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS
NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GUSTAV AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 200 PM
EDT TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES. THE SPECIAL
PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED FOR THAT TIME.

[texpatriot2004]

3. Gustav is very scary. After the experience of Katrina - as an

observer, not a direct victim - seeing this hurricane coming reminds me of the warnings that, well, were not taken seriously enough by most people. With the hindsight of Hurricane Katrina it is a powerless feeling to see this storm churning and traveling toward the Gulf Coast. Just 3 years after Katrina hit, not long enough to even be fully recovered thanks to the failures the * Administration to think they could get hit again is extremely sorrowful. Seeing the photos of the residents of NOLA in the NYT today as they depart from their home before an evacuation is even mandatory because of the trauma they suffered in Katrina adds to this sadness.

I personally wonder if Gustav won't actually end up hitting Texas?

[stevedeshazer]

5. It could very well hit Texas, Houston in particular

Gustav is a whopper.

[lovuian]

7. I'm in Houston and watching like a hawk

Yes it could hit us

[texpatriot2004]

10. I have friends and family there too. I wish you well my friend.

Be safe.

[texpatriot2004]

9. I know. I have thought so too. It is scary no matter where Gustav

is going.

[stillcool]

6. Oh Jesus...

[LeftyMom]

8. Nominating so people see this.

If you're not sure, err on the safe side and get the fuck out. This thing looks nasty.

[Beausoir]

11. Is that his latest update? Is that from tonight?