Obama Has Post-Convention Lead; Palin Largely Unknown (Update1)

[gi4obama]

Aug. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Barack Obama jumped to his biggest lead since late July in public opinion polls, after his televised speech to more than 75,000 people in a Denver football stadium and his Democratic National Convention reconciliation with rival Hillary Clinton.

How long Obama holds the lead is open to question, as voters react to John McCain's surprise selection yesterday of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin for his running mate and Republicans begin their nominating convention Sept. 1 in St. Paul, Minnesota.

Obama leads McCain 49-41 percent in the most recent Gallup Poll daily tracking survey, which measured voter sentiment during a three-day period ending Aug. 28. The presidential contenders had been tied at 45 percent in the last Gallup tracking results before the Democrats started their Colorado convention.

The 8 percentage-point lead almost matches Obama's biggest margin of the campaign, a 9-point bulge in tracking polls conducted July 24-26, Gallup said.


More:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aApryf.cK.lI&refer=home

[yellerpup]

1. Heartening news. Progress continues.

:kick:

[depakid]

2. " How long Obama holds the lead is open to question"

The Republicans are about to start hammering away with negative ads in addition to their own convention- while the Dems will go all "feel good" and end up on the defensive again.

I hope they prove me wrong and don't repeat the pattern. Again.

[Tutonic]

3. He needs to hit 50--once he gets to 50 it ain't gonna matter much

for Old Man McCain.

[regnaD kciN]

4. The "August 28" polling ended before his acceptance speech...

The polls ending August 29 (taken after his speech and mostly after the Palin announcement), announced this morning, showed no change.

That could be read as good news or bad news. It might mean that the "VP bump" from such a dramatic choice really didn't materialize. It might mean that Obama's speech had no effect at increasing his support over what it was the day before. Or it might mean that McCainiac did pick up a "VP bump" that was exactly the same size as the bump from Obama's speech, or simply that it canceled it out by making the speech seem like "old news."

In any event, convention bumps generally fade over a few days. I would thoroughly expect that, by this time next week, the race will be back into the "too-close-to-call" range, or McCainiac might even be ahead (before his convention bump has had a chance to dissipate). One thing is for sure, though: if the polls taken after the Craigtown Convention still show Obama ahead by more than the margin of error, McCainiac/Quayle-in is in a world of trouble.