Some Gustav maps: Now predicting landfall as cat 4

[Dead_Parrot]

I figure there's no such thing as too much information at a time like this: These should update every few hours, so you might want to bookmark.
Good luck...

Predicted track:


Predicted surge:


Hurricane wind prediction (>64kts):


Storm prediction (>34kts):


NOAA Bulletins at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/251438.shtml?

[SacredCow]

1. ouch....

Baton Rouge is not going to get off lightly with this one...

[RL3AO]

2. One of these days these maps will stop showing a 155 mph storm as a category 5

but what can you do about it.

[Dead_Parrot]

3. how do you mean? nt

[RL3AO]

6. The first map from the OP

It shows a category 5 in 36 hours in the Central GOM but the NHC is not forecasting one. They are forecasting a 155 mph storm which is a strong category 4 (cat 5 starts at 156 mph), but for some reason those maps show a 155 mph storm as a cat 5 despite the key saying a cat 5 is 156+ mph.

Not that it matters. Who can tell the difference between a 155 and 160 mph wind?

[Dead_Parrot]

15. Ahh, I see what you mean

Weather Underground draws data from a lot of sources, and puts it's own best-fit to them. So if NOAA say cat 4, but the UK Met office say cat 5, they might side with the UK met office and put a five on their maps, while NHC might go with NOAA's figure.

There's something like six to eight forecasts used by each, and a chunk of guestimation thrown in, so there's usually some differences. Plus, of course, the simulations change every couple of hours so you almost never see the same thing twice anyway.

[emmadoggy]

24. I've been following the NHC forcast pretty closely and...

they actually WERE predicting it to hit Cat 5 status. At the 5pm update, I believe they were forecasting the peak intensity to hit 165mph. At the last update I saw, which was the 8pm one I think, they had downgraded that just a bit to a peak intensity of, I believe, 155mph. The map in the OP either hasn't been updated to reflect that, or they are pulling other data in that is still predicting that strength.

But yes, you are right....155 or 165 doesn't really matter....it's utter devastation either way.

[malaise]

4. Hannah may push it futher West

Get out of harm's way.

[Dead_Parrot]

10. Hannah's looking pretty shoddy at the moment...

There's a lot of wind-shear keeping her from developing: She might recover, but it doesn't look like she'll have a part to play here.

Having said that, of course, these are very dynamic systems, so it's not completely impossible.

[Critters2]

5. Am I right that it looks like it's gonna hit smack-dab on NOLA?!

:cry:

[RL3AO]

7. No, it will probably hit just west of NOLA

which is worse than it hitting it dead on.

[Critters2]

8. Why is it worse? Not that I'm arguing, I just don't understand.

So, thanks for any info. :hi:

[alfredo]

11. The winds are harder on the Eastern side. They spin counter clockwise.

[QC]

13. And there's usually lots more water on the right side of the storm. n/t

[alfredo]

18. I think this might be the end of a very special culture in America.

There's always been a New Orleans.

[QC]

20. Agreed. N.O. is probably the most culturally significant city in America,

and I honestly fear that this storm might finish what Katrina started.

[alfredo]

26. The Puritans never tamed that city.

[RL3AO]

14. The highest winds are on the northeast side

and the storm surge is highest on the north east side. So if the eye hits 25 miles or so west of New Orleans, it will put the highest winds and highest surge right over NOLA.

[wildflower]

9. How will the elderly get out?

I recently heard a report that over half of those who died in New Orleans after Katrina were 75 or older. How will they get out this time? Does anyone know? I'm extremely worried.

[alfredo]

12. I saw some being carried to buses.

[wildflower]

17. Thanks for replying. Will they be able to find all of them and

carry them to buses? I really really hope so.

[alfredo]

19. I hope so too. There's not as many to find, many are dead, the rest refugees.

[Feron]

16. I'm leaving tomorrow.

That track is too close for comfort and we have a hotel room in Alabama.

I'll check in when I get a chance. Take care everyone.

[EFerrari]

21. Be safe.

:hi:

[Barack_America]

22. Godspeed to you and your family. And please take your pets!

:hug:

[alfredo]

25. I wouldn't stop until I saw Lake Michigan.

[gi4obama]

23. This will be updated at 1 am. n/t