Gustav update

[RL3AO]

In the past hour, there has been a significant change in Gustav's structure. Thunderstorms have wrapped around the center and his eyewall is now closed. It has been open all day preventing intensification. Pressure is down 3 mb or so and the eyewall has closed. It might try to make a run at category 4 strength before landfall.

Also, here are the center fixes from the air force hurricane hunter plane, along with the forecast track.

[thewiseguy]

1. It is definitely strengthening. The pressure is now down to 953 mb

Hurricane hunters are now saying the eye is closed and actually you could tell that from the satellite data too.

[RL3AO]

2. The 953 is probably a millibar or two too high.

UZNT13 KNHC 312320
XXAA 81237 99267 70875 08167 99953 28210 10017 00931 ///// /////
92265 26410 12512 85012 23008 11010 70691 15250 17503 88999 77999
31313 09608 82303
61616 AF304 2207A GUSTAV OB 23
62626 EYE SPL 2673N08748W 2306 MBL WND 11513 AEV 00000 DLM WND 11
510 952713 WL150 10514 075 =
XXBB 81238 99267 70875 08167 00953 28210 11850 23008 22758 18410
33705 16842 44696 14056
21212 00953 10017 11925 12512 22850 11010 33812 10511 44696 17004
31313 09608 82303
61616 AF304 2207A GUSTAV OB 23
62626 EYE SPL 2673N08748W 2306 MBL WND 11513 AEV 00000 DLM WND 11
510 952713 WL150 10514 075 =


Dropsonde was 953 mb but with a 17 knot wind. Usually you lower the pressure 1 mb for every 10 knots. So 951 or 952 mb.

[barbtries]

3. thanks for posting this

in layman's terms (and forgive my ignorance), is the closing of the eye wall good, bad or indifferent? it's not as if there is some chance that a hurricane won't hit land tomorrow right? i've been tracking it on my computer all day intermittently. it's times like this i miss my cable television.

[thewiseguy]

4. A closed eye wall is very bad news

This storm did not have a closed eye wall for most of the day and was weakening. With a closed eye wall the storm can further intensify.

[barbtries]

6. thank you

i kinda gathered that from the op but wanted to be sure. sigh.

[Lost-in-FL]

8. A close eye means that it can weaken.

That's what I always thought. Remember Katrina's eye? It was almost 100 miles and visible in the satellite pictures as a well defines structure.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_dense_overcast

"In strong tropical cyclones, the eye is characterized by light winds and clear skies, surrounded on all sides by a towering, symmetric eyewall. In weaker tropical cyclones, the eye is less well-defined, and can be covered by the central dense overcast, which is an area of high, thick clouds which show up brightly on satellite imagery. Weaker or disorganized storms may also feature an eyewall which does not completely encircle the eye, or have an eye which features heavy rain. In all storms, however, the eye is the location of the storm's minimum barometric pressure: the area where the atmospheric pressure at sea level is the lowest."

[RL3AO]

10. Closed eyewall means it can and probably will get stronger.

[RL3AO]

5. The eyewall closing is bad.

It will likely get stronger tonight before landfall tomorrow morning.

There is no chance this won't hit land. New Orleans better hope it turns more west-northwest and hit more near Lake Charles.

[lonestarnot]

7. Damn! I was hoping that wouldn't happen!

[Catherine Vincent]

9. See, now this is what I was afraid of:

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5975900.html

3 die as Louisiana residents flee
Copyright 2008 Houston Chronicle and the Associated Press
Aug. 31, 2008, 6:19PM

NEW ORLEANS — Three people have died so far during the massive evacuation efforts in Louisiana, Gov. Bobby Jindal said.

The victims, all still unidentified, were critical-care patients who died while being moved to higher ground. Two were in Lake Charles and one in New Orleans, he said.

"Every life is precious,'' he said.

About 1.9 million people were evacuated statewide, the largest number in Louisiana history. An estimated 10,000 remain in New Orleans.

"It's unprecedented,'' Jindal said.

With Hurricane Gustav just a day away from a possible monster hit on New Orleans, the mayor Sunday pleaded with the last of its residents to get out, imposed a dusk-to-dawn curfew on those who stay and warned looters they will be sent directly to prison.

The Big Easy increasingly took on the eeriness of a ghost town as thousands heeded a mandatory evacuation order, and police and National Guard troops clamped down on the city to prevent the kind of lawlessness and chaos that followed Katrina three years ago.

[Th1onein]

11. "the mayor Sunday pleaded with the last of its residents to get out"

Except for the ones, of course, who have no picture ID. Those can drown.

[geomon666]

12. The best part about that...

Since they have no ID, they just get reported as "Missing". :puke:

[skooooo]

14. Did you read that somewhere?

How do you know?

[geomon666]

16. I believe that happened during after Katrina.

I could be wrong though, I will admit that.

[Ghost Dog]

17. DU here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x3893101

[bertman]

13. Very sad, but not unexpected when one is moving the "fragile" ones. Let's hope for the best

from here on out.

[Fleshdancer]

15. Damn it

I was getting hopeful that it would weaken more before landing. :(