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misanthrope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-06-08 11:53 PM
Original message
Changes in Ike's path...
...the newer computer models are now pushing Ike toward Texas. If these hold true, Gustav's path might be spared a second strafing.
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RoyGBiv Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 12:01 AM
Response to Original message
1. The computer models ...
Edited on Sun Sep-07-08 12:01 AM by RoyGBiv
These are all based on conditions at the time the models were run. And, there is wide variation even with those conditions.

We have little idea at this point where the storm is going. The best we can say with something close to accuracy is that it's going into the Gulf, and what that means is that it will make landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast, somewhere between Mexico and Flordia.

If it doesn't hit New Orleans (and it probably won't) it's still going to mess up someone's day. This is a potential monster.

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babylonsister Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 12:06 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. Yes. After seeing a relatively new hurricane, Wilma, go from
west (Yucatan) to east (FL), all bets are off. I don't trust any of them. Or the weathermen.

The hurricane in the early 1900s that killed so many people in Galveston went from FL to TX.

And I live in TX: I'm not relaxing anything.
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RoyGBiv Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 12:16 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. Same here ...

I moved to Houston last year, so here I sit, waiting to see what happens. I take those highway signs seriously. "Storm Forming the the Gulf."

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bookman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 12:45 AM
Response to Reply #5
8. Houston area
I've been here for 9 years. The worst was the post Katrina panic.

If you live in a surge area you should keep posted. Rita wasn't too bad (for our area).

But a more direct path can cause havoc. Houston will flood.

Let's keep an eye on Ike.

Wish it could fizzle and die.

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misanthrope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 01:05 AM
Response to Reply #1
9. Shhh, you're spoiling my sighs of relief...
Edited on Sun Sep-07-08 01:07 AM by misanthrope
...I'm in the center of the central Gulf and this is the best glimmer of hope we've had in a day or so.

Notice, I said "IF these hold true..."

I agree this looks like a particularly nasty storm.
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RoyGBiv Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 01:18 AM
Response to Reply #9
10. Yeah, I know ...

Sorry if that came off as a dismissal.

I'm just having my own moment of freakout, and the mention of Texas triggered it. I come from tornado country. Hurricanes are nothing like tornadoes.

They're, like, a lot bigger.

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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 12:03 AM
Response to Original message
2. Ike may be similar to an earlier killer hurricane from 1900:
Edited on Sun Sep-07-08 12:04 AM by Old Crusoe
http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/events/1900hurr.htm

--which walloped Galveston, Texas and killed over 6,000 people.


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babylonsister Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 12:28 AM
Response to Reply #2
6. Yes, OC, I mentioned Galveston upthread. Not good.
How ya doing? I escaped for awhile, but I'm back! :hi:
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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 12:37 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. babylonsister, you're back, and that's our gain,
but now be careful because there is a badass storm brewin' down near Cuba, and there's a chance it could be heading to your neck of the woods.

Agree with you that the forecast is still early and no on can be sure what Ike is up to or where'll he'll go.

But wherever he winds up, he's likely to arrive in a bad mood.

Be safe.
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Odin2005 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 12:15 AM
Response to Original message
4. Oh God, Cuba is going to get majorly pounded.
Looks like the center of the storm is going to go east-to-west across along the length of the island, staying a hurricane the whole time.

:-(
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flamingdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 01:18 AM
Response to Reply #4
11. Poor Cuba is just recovering from Gustav.. and Haiti, we have to pray for them... nt
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Ex Lurker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 01:30 AM
Response to Reply #11
13. Gustav didn't hit Cuba that bad
Edited on Sun Sep-07-08 01:30 AM by Ex Lurker
looks like Ike will give them the full treatment, though.
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flamingdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 03:32 AM
Response to Reply #13
14. Correction: Gustav was their worst storm in 50 years
Miami Herald

Some residents of picturesque Los Palacios, in the western province of Pinar del Rio, have already rebaptized their town in the wake of Hurricane Gustav: They now call it The Ruins.

In the storm Cuban authorities are saying was the worst here in more than 50 years—one that registered unprecedented wind speeds—Los Palacios has the dubious distinction of being the first that lay directly in Gustav’s path.

The pastel-colored houses in this town of 15,000 collapsed. Cars went flying. Power and phone lines throughout the city tumbled. At least 10 army trucks and several bulldozers charged into the community Sunday to begin cleanup, while the people in nearby Isle of Youth remained in complete darkness as every single TV, electric and mobile phone tower fell.

‘’The devil came through here,’’ said Juan Carlos Rodríguez, who works for the municipal school management office and spent the night guarding the building. ``It swept it completely.’’


People make their way through a street covered by knocked down electrical posts and cables after Hurricane Gustav hit the area in Los Palacios, Cuba. Javier Galeano / AP Photo

Gustav made landfall in Cuba on Saturday evening as a Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds and gusts up to 212 mph, Cuban meteorologists said, sweeping by in just four hours and leaving a path of devastation. In a testament to the Cuban government’s unparalleled hurricane preparedness system, no deaths were reported.

Some 250,000 people had been evacuated in four provinces.

According to Olga Lidia Tapia, President of Pinar del Río civil defense committee, 86,000 homes were damaged, 80 electric towers and 600 electric posts fell.

‘’Many people cannot go back to their homes because they lost them,’’ she said on the nightly news program Mesa Redonda, adding that people are building makeshift shelters with whatever materials they could find.

In the Isle of Youth, municipal defense committee president Ana Isa Delgado phoned in to the news show: ``Regarding housing, everything has been affected. All towns.’’

Vicente de la O, who heads Cuba’s electric company, said that a total of 136 electric towers toppled over. In a previous hurricane, 30 towers were damaged and it took 15 days to restore service, but he said he hoped to have service restored in 10 to 12 days in Pinar del Rio Province.

The situation in the Isle of Youth was much worse.

‘’100 percent of the electrical grid is damaged,’’ de la O said. ``Totally destroyed.’’

In Los Palacios, Rodríguez estimated that 90 percent of the homes were affected, as well as about half of the electric infrastructure.

‘’This is very sad. It’s unbearable to watch,’’ a woman in Paso Real said, as she burst into tears and walked away without giving her name.

An elderly man gathered pieces of clay tile. A few blocks ahead, a woman swept her wet front porch. There was no flooding in Los Palacios, but the rain seeped into many homes and also fell directly into roofless houses.

‘’It was horrendous,’’ said Alberto García, a 68-year-old retiree.

Along the highway to Pinar del Río, tree branches partially blocked the road, and a twisted mass of electric towers lay on the ground like a row of fallen dominoes as far as the eye could see.

The force of the wind decimated entire fields of banana trees. At a police control station, all the lamp posts toppled over and the metal mobile structure lay upside down in a ditch.

In San Cristobal, fallen branches and tree trunks blocked the main street into the town. Many houses lost their roofs or were flooded.

In other destruction in Los Palacios, debris was scattered everywhere on the wet streets, in many cases blocking the roads with tree branches, downed power lines, tiles, masonry from ornamental columns, pieces of wood, doors, phone booths and corrugated metal sheets that once served as roofs.

Oddly, a community garden stood unharmed, its vegetable rows lined up in perfect order. Dogs and chicken roamed the streets.

The main school building lost all its windows on the upper floor, and authorities postponed the start of school until next week.

‘’It will take us at least six months to get back to a basic level of infrastructure,’’ Rodríguez said.

There was no electricity, no gas, no fuel and no water, although Rodríguez said residents had enough drinking water stored for 72 hours.

‘’I stayed in my closet with my two children and prayed the whole time,’’ said Mabel Ayerbe, a 36 year-old housewife and mother of two boys, ages 5 and 6. ``The little one was crying and the older one wanted to see the wind. The first pass took about two hours. Then, we were in the eye for some 45 minutes and the weather was totally clear. After the eye it lost some strength, but the first pass was violent.’’

Gustav traveled about 100 miles when it entered Cajio and left the city of La Palma at 9:10 p.m., the state media said. The eye crossed at a speed of 11 miles an hour and was 37 miles wide.

The government media said the damage was so bad, the name ‘’Gustav’’ may have to get scratched off the list of potential future hurricanes—a move only taken in the worst of natural disasters.

‘’I don’t want to see this again. It was terrible,’’ Ayerbe said. ‘’We no longer call this Los Palacios. It is now The Ruins. We Cubans are optimists. We’ll see how we work it out and p’alante!’’—onward!

This article was reported by a Miami Herald correspondent in Cuba, whose name is being withheld because the journalist did not have the journalism visa required by the Cuban government. Miami Herald correspondent Frances Robles contributed from Miami.
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Ex Lurker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 05:38 AM
Response to Reply #14
15. I stand corrected n/t
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Odin2005 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 11:32 AM
Response to Reply #14
16. OMG!
:cry:
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malaise Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 11:46 AM
Response to Reply #14
17. It was devastating in Cuba
Haiti has terrible flooding but not the level of destruction that occurred in Cuba.
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XOKCowboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 01:22 AM
Response to Original message
12. I just keep my fingers crossed for my friends in Belize...
They can handle a good storm but it hurts the poorest among them the most.
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