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screembloodymurder Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-10-08 08:26 PM
Original message
What caused the fall of the Soviet Union?
Edited on Fri Oct-10-08 08:29 PM by screembloodymurder
For years, I've heard how Reagan and Afghanistan caused the fall of the Soviet Union. I'm sure they were contributing factors, but wasn't the decline of oil prices their biggest economic problem? The graph below gives the price of oil in 2007 dollars. Notice how the price collapsed between 1981 and 1985 which is said to be the year the Soviet decline started.



Now fast forward to 2008. The high cost of Bush's illegal wars has dragged down the dollar. Since oil is sold in dollars, the weaker dollar has resulted in skyrocketing oil prices. The world's two largest oil exporters, SA and Russia have become oil rich and Russia's economy is surging. The US is trapped in a vicious cycle of a falling dollar and rising commodity prices. The more we spend on our ME wars, the richer and more powerful our enemies become. I think the Russian intervention in Georgia was the final straw.

Are we watching economic warfare? Are we intentionally bringing down the world's markets in order to torpedo commodity prices and thereby ruin the resurgent Russian economy? Contrary to most expert's expectations, the dollar has been strengthening in the face of this crisis. Why? Maybe this crisis is no accident.

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annabanana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-10-08 08:29 PM
Response to Original message
1. They went broke overspending on their military..
(just like us)
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rwenos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-10-08 08:35 PM
Response to Reply #1
5. And They Couldn't Borrow as Much as We Did
Remember those T-bill auctions that take place every Tuesday morning? In the 1980's, it was Japanese banks and insurance companies buying the T-bills, thus financing the U.S. Goverment's current account deficit. Lately the Chinese industrial companies and "Sovereign Fund" have been doing the same thing.

We had better credit than the Russkis, so we were able to spend them under the table. Reagan gets credit for it, but the Democratic Congress voted for all that military spending.

Then, suddenly, within a WEEK (amazing!) the Soviets folded the tent. An incredible chapter.
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Tangerine LaBamba Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-10-08 08:29 PM
Response to Original message
2. Levis
In the end, the people wanted Levis.
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rgbecker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-10-08 08:52 PM
Response to Reply #2
9. I personally smuggled in two pair myself. 1971.
Just wet their appetite for more, I guess.
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Tangerine LaBamba Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-10-08 09:02 PM
Response to Reply #9
11. I traded a pair for some chocolate tea
and some remarkable hash in 1967..

I really should still be in a gulag. God, weren't we young and stupid?
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bemildred Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-10-08 08:31 PM
Response to Original message
3. The USSR was brought down by an internal nationalist revolt of the Russian people.
Being broke had a good deal to do with that. Stay tuned.
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rwenos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-10-08 08:32 PM
Response to Original message
4. This is the "Weimar Republic" Hypothesis
You've done a great job with the statistics, and it's obvious there's a circumstantial case to be made that the B*sh Administration COULD have orchestrated a devaluation to undermine the Russkis.

But you're projecting a lot of expertise onto a bunch of Georgie Boy's cronies, whose expertise looks more like the Three Stooges than anything else. For the Weimar Republic scenario to be true (i.e., a government deliberately trashing its own economy to deal with foreign financial obligations, as the German government did in the 1920's to pay World War I reparations with inflated currency), there would have to be a master pulling the strings.

Unless you buy the tinfoil hat business about the Illuminati conspiracy, the current situation looks more like the current government slipping on a banana peel, MORE than it looks like a Master Stroke.

On the other hand, where's Dick Cheney?
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knowbody0 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-10-08 08:36 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. Dick's going to Dubai with Halliburton
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benddem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-10-08 08:35 PM
Response to Original message
6. Chernobyl
didn't help! But having traveled to the Eastern bloc many times in the 80's it was easy to see they were on the skids. Then they started letting seniors travel and move to the West cause they couldn't pay their retirements and the ball started rolling. Reagan had NOTHING to do with it.
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2Design Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-10-08 08:44 PM
Response to Original message
8. they wasted money on wars and bullets and trying to control
people - they lost - this current admin has been driving the country into the hole, reagan drove it in a hole, pappy drove it into a hole, so dictator, autocratic, hate monger countries eventually fall
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FarCenter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-10-08 08:53 PM
Response to Original message
10. An interesting comparison of USSR collapse and US potential collapse
Closing the 'Collapse Gap': the USSR was better prepared for collapse than the US

by Dmitry Orlov

Note that it is from 2006

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/23259
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Selatius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-11-08 02:21 PM
Response to Reply #10
18. That's a pretty interesting slide show. nt
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Igel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-11-08 12:01 PM
Response to Original message
12. Lots of reasons.
Some of long standing, some more recent (as of 1990), some economic and some political and some psychological.

Russia wasn't a big exporter of oil; neither did it import just a great deal. Oil wasn't a big deal. Currency valuation would have been important, but that was a recent factor and had only become an official factor in the late '80s (while it was an unofficial factor before that) ... when it's a non-convertible currency, you get rid of some problems.

Gaidar looks to long-term underlying inefficiencies in the economy. His prime example is grain: Production didn't increase from the '60s to the '80s because of extreme inefficiency--lack of fertilizers, motivation to produce more, to bring more land under production, to avoid rendering land unusable, shortfall in tractors and no decrease in waste. (Of course, he has to start *after* Khrushchev's disaster of a maize campaign.) The same could be said about nearly everything else: The economy wasn't growing, even as the rest of the world's was. Gaidar's claim is that ultimately the USSR collapsed of its own accord. Andrei Amal'rik, a minor dissident from the '60s and '70s, would have agreed, but he put the USSR's downfall, rhetorically at least, in 1984 or before. But Gaidar is an economist, so all questions are economic.

It's hard to disagree with that being the ultimate cause. But it's not enough to cause a country to disintegrate. So there are other causes. At least Amal'rik took into account psychological factors that Gaidar didn't.

At the same time, the country was hermetically sealed, and told that it was the best. The West was about to collapse, things were truly crappy her, illiteracy was rampant, with riots in the streets and a shortfall in technology. The computerization of American society in the '80s couldn't have happened. When the US provided gobs of grain in the '70s, it was barely reported on--it was, after all, impossible. With more contacts, it became more obvious the USSR was in a technologically backwards zone, not the pinnacle of human achievement. Never underestimate the effect of national disillusionment and humiliation.

It didn't help when it was revealed that many of the USSR's great advances were Western technology reverse-engineered. Even the Soviet A-bomb wasn't truly home-grown. If *that* was all that was protecting the USSR from the ever-imminent Western invasion, one had to wonder why there had been no invasion. Moreover, instead of exporting greatness to Nicaragua and Vietnam, what *were* they exporting? The answer wasn't pretty.

There were the social changes. The 30-somethings in the 1970s and 1980s lost any fervor for sacrifice. The system was the system, to be milked: There was no real pride in being the USSR. The apparatchiki ruled and were cynical. Nobody wanted to defend the system. When it came out that they *did* have a suicide rate and plane crashes (all state secrets before), that the Stalin and Brezhnev eras had GULags and political repression, it was too much for many; some simply denied it, out of belief or expediency; others considered the problems to be overblown because they couldn't handle the humiliation entailed by them, and publicizing the flaws to be further humiliation. At the same time, many didn't see why some politically banned books were banned--it seemed silly and petty. The thing about a command economy is that it has to be commanded: when the commanders have no real authority, or use their authority for personal gain, things go corrupt and flaccid very quickly. The only recourse is to hide it, and that produces more economic corruption and less accountability. Once the commanders were held up to ridicule, they had no real authority to fix problems--mistakes could be accepted, but even the competent, once reduced to being ridiculed, can't do squat.

Afghanistan was part of it, but a late part, and just more of the same: Not only was the system not worth defending on moral grounds, it wasn't defending on purely nationalistic grounds. It couldn't beat the Taliban, which is to say, the US, even after having beaten the US to a draw or having simply won in Mozambique, Angola, Cuba, Nicagagua, Vietnam, Laos (we'll not mention the blowback of Cambodia) and numerous other countries, and keeping the US sidelined in the UN through alliances with the 'non-aligned' countries like India and Iraq and Egypt. But a second psychological blow was that the losses, and lack of victory, had been kept from them just as the Soviet economic backwardness, suicide rates, alcoholism problem, air crashes, etc., etc. had been kept secret. Reality turned out to be worse than the rumors made it out to be.

Military spending was also a big deal: The best had gone for the military and even the space program. They got their pick of things like ball bearings and batches of steel, making consumer goods even shoddier instead of improving quality across the board. As military spending had to rev up with a fairly static economic base, the military demanded a greater share of high-quality output. This became noticeable at the wrong time--when confidence in the system was badly shaken. Xozraschet made it obvious this was the case.

Xozraschet undermined things even more when the reports came out as to how inefficient everything was. When some enterprises were punished for being inefficient, it wasn't deemed fair, since the workers suffered. And with that the only real social contract left failed as production slowed, food became harder to find as work stopped being guaranteed. But, of course, there's more.

Going back to the '60s, there was affirmative action in the USSR. It was noticed that everybody important, pretty much, was Russian, or at least Slav. This changed, and more "ethnic minorities" were incorporated into more cadres. Russians, esp., didn't like this. The Ivans couldn't catch a break, and there was considerable backlash. It continues to this day--Rogozin, a noted spokesman for Russia during the Russo-Georgian conflict lead a "take out the trash" political campaign in '04 or '06 in which watermelon rinds figured prominently (mostly identified with the Caucasus). Think of a "drive out the cockroaches" campaign that showed trash from a taco stand for an American parallel (Rogozin was popular here when he echoed Putin).

Politically, Gorbachev was fairly popular, at least among those fairly young. At least he was trying to fix things when it was obvious the future wasn't going to be great. The generals and old guard didn't like it one bit, but were off guard. The coup attempt flopped, putting them back on their heels, but also making the country less stable--the USSR was no longer an ideal that a majority bought into, if it ever had been. Seeing the instability and weakness of the generals and old guard, and lack of resoluteness in the KPSS, the various "occupied countries" declared their de facto independence.

Gorbachev did nothing, simply because he wasn't able to do much: To invade would have undermined some of his stated precepts, to not invade undermined the USSR's "nationalistic" fervor. The army was even more weakened and divided, with no consensus or clear leadership; the economy probably couldn't take invading Georgia, much less Poland (he undoubtedly remembered 1917), and then the Soviet minorities felt it was safe to speak. The reaction was predictable--when Estonia or Lithuania finally declared independence after years of occupation, the Russian response was that they'd always been able to, what kept them from doing it in the '50s or '60s? (People were so stunned at the arrogance of the question that they forgot to laugh at the joke.) The generals were divided, and confronted with too many problems: The units in the breakaway areas were largely minority units (which weren't considered reliable enough to be placed in positions that would actually come under attack in the case of a NATO invasion ... i.e., in Europe). Moreover, not just breakaway republics had to be dealt with--breakaway autonomous republics were in the offing, and more serious ... and also a problem that couldn't be dealt with militarily, turning the Red Army on areas inside Russia proper.

Of course, this is all really, really simplified, with various other reasons left out. Declining agricultural output in some regions, vast tracts of polluted or unhabitable land, vast amounts of unexploitable wealth, an attempt to overreach by having subsidized settlements in land that was less than marginal, subsidies to political allies, a static population, the inflexibility of a command economy given rather rapid change, restrictions imposed by having an state-fixed overvalued currency, a preference for E. German, Polish, and Czech manufactured goods, etc., etc., all played some role.

People like nuance, but when confronted with a spate of causes or reasons demand just one because nuance and complexity are, well, hard to understand and complex. Then, when provided with just one, they're at pains to point out that the answer is simplistic and can't be right, often instead still wanting a single reason, just a different one. Then, when provided with more answers, they respond that they were lied to when given just one.

Did Reagan help in the USSR's collapse? Most assuredly: he stressed the economy, helped Afghanistan be a Soviet problem and drained Soviet resources in other US/USSR proxy wars and political confrontations, and he increased contacts, all the while showing the West to not be *just* militaristic warmongers. Could the "Reagan offensive" have been neutered by an economically more powerful and politically cohesive USSR? Most assuredly. Would the USSR have collapsed without the "Reagan offensive"? Most assuredly, but Amal'rik's 1984 half-serious prediction would have been even more wrong, and when it collapsed it might have collapsed in a more explosive way.

One enduring topic of debate is why the USSR collapsed so peacefully. It had a military, with the core being Russians. While it wasn't a finely honed fighting machine, it could have still prevented some breakaway republics from leaving and sown chaos in others. (Remember Budyonnyi? He couldn't keep Poland for Lenin, but he certainly created chaos.) I still haven't seen an answer that really satisfies me intellectually, the answer all seems to be nitpicking details concerning one aspect of the problem or another. All told, they simply say that nobody did anything, with each person having his own reasons, with no overarching reason (except negative ones--lack of consensus, incompetence with occasional flickers of morality, lack of centralized, respected authority, inaction on the part of political leaders, etc.). It's likely to be the real reason, but still it's something that isn't satisfying.
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knitter4democracy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-11-08 12:06 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. This is what I was taught when I studied there.
Excellent analysis.
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Selatius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-11-08 12:03 PM
Response to Original message
13. They never invested in their economy, only on military production. That, and popular unrest.
A totalitarian dictatorship is bound to fall at some point, so the fall was not the issue. The issue was how they handled their economy, and how the successors handled the economy after the Communist Party lost power.
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ColbertWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-11-08 12:49 PM
Response to Reply #13
16. I would add time.
In the history of the "Russian peoples" they change governments every 60-70 years. That's about as long as they can take one regime before losing it.


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suston96 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-11-08 12:23 PM
Response to Original message
15. Actually, it started with the election of a Polish Pope and the Polish labor unions.
Just my opinion, of course.
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ForrestGump Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-11-08 01:09 PM
Response to Original message
17. MTV. Caused the fall of the USA, too.


Sure as hell caused the fall of popular music...

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Poseidan Donating Member (630 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-11-08 02:42 PM
Response to Original message
19. simple physics
Edited on Sat Oct-11-08 02:43 PM by Poseidan
The USSR was built from the top-down. Picture a set of skyscrapers. If you then build skyscrapers on top of the existing skyscrapers, merging them all together, the foundations of the initial 'scrapers will not be capable of enduring the additional weight.

The United States was built from the bottom-up, with the necessary foundations to support a Correlated structure. Before the U.S., there were only a few basic colonies. Their construction was easy enough to modify.
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JackRiddler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-11-08 04:22 PM
Response to Original message
20. The right question perhaps is, "how did it keep going so long..."
Russia had a revolution, but the majority of the Soviet bloc consisted of unwilling nations under one-party dictatorships imposed by Moscow after invasions and propped up by force of arms. In the crises of 1953, 1956, 1961, 1968, 1970 and 1980, Moscow had the will and available force, or sufficient threat thereof, to use invasions or martial law by satellite regimes in suppressing national rebellions, each of which could have set off the same domino effect we saw in 1988-1989. As far as I can see, the Soviets implicitly acknowledged their ultimate unviability in 1961, with the unmistakable message of having to build a Wall so as to retain population within the bloc. With each decade, they fell behind economically because of the competition and the arms race with the West (something to which they never reacted creatively), and were further undermined by the fact that the vast majority of the people believed more in the West than in their own system. (Given that, the most important single move in the cold war was Brandt's Ostpolitik, not Reagan's bellicosity.) Gorbachev implicitly acknowledged this decline in his attempt at a new detente, systemic reform and reintegration of the parts on a more voluntary basis. The risky course backfired when, in the absence of a renewed will to invade Hungary or Poland, the Eastern European dominoes fell in 1989. This enraged the hardliners who delivered the killing blow to the very state they hoped to restore by overthrowing Gorbachev in the August 1991 putsch. The neo-Stalinists' coup fell apart but left Gorbachev powerless against Yeltsin and the leaders of the Republics.
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screembloodymurder Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-12-08 10:49 AM
Response to Original message
21. Sound familiar?
http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.25991,filter.all/pub_detail.asp

One of the Soviet leadership's biggest blunders was to spend a significant amount of additional oil revenues to start the war in Afghanistan. The war radically changed the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. In 1974, Saudi Arabia decided to impose an embargo on oil supplies to the United States. But in 1979 the Saudis became interested in American protection because they understood that the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan was a first step toward--or at least an attempt to gain--control over the Middle Eastern oil fields.

The time line of the collapse of the Soviet Union can be traced to September 13, 1985. On this date, Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani, the minister of oil of Saudi Arabia, declared that the monarchy had decided to alter its oil policy radically. The Saudis stopped protecting oil prices, and Saudi Arabia quickly regained its share in the world market. During the next six months, oil production in Saudi Arabia increased fourfold, while oil prices collapsed by approximately the same amount in real terms.

As a result, the Soviet Union lost approximately $20 billion per year, money without which the country simply could not survive. The Soviet leadership was confronted with a difficult decision on how to adjust. There were three options--or a combination of three options--available to the Soviet leadership.

First, dissolve the Eastern European empire and effectively stop barter trade in oil and gas with the Socialist bloc countries, and start charging hard currency for the hydrocarbons. This choice, however, involved convincing the Soviet leadership in 1985 to negate completely the results of World War II. In reality, the leader who proposed this idea at the CPSU Central Committee meeting at that time risked losing his position as general secretary.

Second, drastically reduce Soviet food imports by $20 billion, the amount the Soviet Union lost when oil prices collapsed. But in practical terms, this option meant the introduction of food rationing at rates similar to those used during World War II. The Soviet leadership understood the consequences: the Soviet system would not survive for even one month. This idea was never seriously discussed.

Third, implement radical cuts in the military-industrial complex. With this option, however, the Soviet leadership risked serious conflict with regional and industrial elites, since a large number of Soviet cities depended solely on the military-industrial complex. This choice was also never seriously considered.

Unable to realize any of the above solutions, the Soviet leadership decided to adopt a policy of effectively disregarding the problem in hopes that it would somehow wither away. Instead of implementing actual reforms, the Soviet Union started to borrow money from abroad while its international credit rating was still strong. It borrowed heavily from 1985 to 1988, but in 1989 the Soviet economy stalled completely.

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