October: Election Handicapper

[jpertello]

There is a litmus test that has predicted the winner and loser of every presidential election over the past 100 years. If the Dow has risen 3.3 percent or more in October, the incumbent party has never lost. If the Dow has dropped 0.5 percent or more, the incumbent party has never won. End of story.



see more charts and data:

http://www.sfomag.com/homecoverdetail.asp?ID=-432392283&MonthNameID=October&YearID=2004

[Bicoastal]

1. Well, there are exceptions to every rule...

...and nothing is predestined.

[Whalestoe]

2. So we win since it has fallen a huge amount?

[jpertello]

3. Yup. Fell about 30% right?

[Sebastian Doyle]

4. Correction

If the Dow has risen 3.3 percent or more in October, the incumbent party has never lost.

We didn't really lose in 2000. So you'd really have to go back to 1920 and the 2.4% for an incumbent party loss.

I do find it interesting that the closest that the Dow came to no change, a gain of .04%, was in 1960, probably the actual closest election of the century