Predict the electoral college

[norepubsin08]

Based upon what you know right now...how many electoral votes do you think Obama will receive in this years presidential election.

[southpaw]

1. I'll say between 296 and 310.

But I'll settle for 270.

[norepubsin08]

2. that's what I said also

but I truly would love 3 things 1) 60 dems in the senate Obama to win AZ and AK and that Obama gets to 339 electoral votes My prediction was 308 Obama 238 McCain

[featherman]

3. As things stand today... it's pretty obvious Obama will be well over 360

Nothing far-fetched about it: win the Kerry states plus NV, CO, NM, IA, MO, OH, VA, NC, FL... that's 364 right there.

For those guessing less: which of the above won't Obama win in your opinion? He's leading in ALL.

Throw in a likely win in IN plus some longer shots in WV, MT, ND, GA, MS and you get an even bigger number

Here is another interactive map to play with, by the way
http://grayraven.com/ec/

[norepubsin08]

6. I see him not winning

MO and NC

[featherman]

12. You could be right, of course, but he leads both as of now. Intrade thinks he'll win both

as well as 538.com and a few others.

Intrade currently favoring Obama in 364 EV's
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aN6KgfzBrYwE&refer=home

Nate Silver has Obama up a bit (around 2%) in both as well:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

I agree this can all change if the race tightens. But it remains my best guess as of today.

[SteelPenguin]

4. 383

[vanderBeth]

5. That's what I got too.

I was being pretty optimistic, though.

[rucky]

7. 278

[norepubsin08]

8. How do you figure

I guessed 308

[rucky]

9. Giving McCain the benefit of the doubt in any state within 3 points

and we still win.

[norepubsin08]

10. Ok sounds good.

The state that surprises me that they are giving to Obama right now is Florida..I alwazys looked at it as a very middle of the road to Republican leaning, with a lot of Republican corruption going on and that is why it always goes in the R column.

[baldguy]

11. I'll go out on a limb - 400+

[torbird]

13. Obama 313, McCain 225

McCain wins Ohio and MO. Obama wins VA and Florida.

[norepubsin08]

15. That's pretty much what I thought

except that I think Obama will have NM stolen from him, thus 5 lesser EV's

[tom_paine]

14. That a tough one. I do trends, not specifics. Not a psychic.

Plus, to me there are two separate predictions. One, the "Coincidence Theorists' Prediction" in which I automatically assume that which is not 100% proven does not exist.

If I do that, and ignore the large amounts of uninvestigated evidence of electronic Bushie Election fraud, only restricting myself to "lawful" and/or 100% proven Bushie Disenfranchisement Tactics from
the Voter ID Laws to Bushie Republican County Commissioners basically placing African American (especially African-American colleges) polling places in the most uncomfortable, broken-down, out of the way places imaginable.

I called the NAACP. It's, of course, a National Bushie Strategy in places where they are able to abuse their power in this way.

OK, so ONLY taking into account ONLY things which are 100% provable, it's still going to be tough because these "legal, proven" disenfranchisement methods are in place and powerful.

But ONLY considering what I know, I think Obama may still squeak it out in the Coincidence Theorist's Fantasyland.

The Coincidence Theorists' Fantasyland is also the Bushie-Generated Conventional Wisdom of Imperial Amerika. Thus, I voted that way in the poll. 281-296 EVs.

Unfortunately, if one takes into account the rest of the "it could easily be proven if only we could find someone with the guts to start and investigation and follow it through to the end" stuff, I do not think Obama's ~10-12% margin is quite enough to feel safe about even 269 EVs. Stuff like electronic malfeasance and black box "inside job" programming malfeasance, to name two of MANY examples, both electronic and manual.

It might have been enough in 2004, or his his African-American-ness combined with the Adolf Palin Strategy hadn't activated the Bushie Crazies into new levels of "willing to perform criminal acts in order to prevent what they consider to be a greater evil", mindset.

So, that's my vote in the poll, and my stern caveat with it...