How have all Presidential elections from 2000 on come down to 1 state?

[MiniMe]

In 2000, it was Florida, Florida, Florida. In 2004 it was Ohio. This year they are claiming it is Pennsylvania. How can they know in advance which state it will be and why has it been 1 state in the last 3 elections? I'm hoping that we don't see an election that is that close this year, but something about this is starting to smell.

[NeedleCast]

1. Not a one state race this year

There are lots of combinations that put Obama over the top. If the Republicans have to take PA to win, this one is over (and it is over).

[serrano2008]

2. The difference this year...

Is that in previous years there was seriously a toss-up on which states would go where and it was so close that we knew it would be one of a few different states that would be the decision maker.

This year, MOST of the toss-ups will probably go to Obama and we'll know pretty early if it looks like B will win it or not. On the other hand, McCain has to win ALL OF THE TOSS-UPS.

If B wins some early east coasters like VA and NC then it's a done deal. Even if McCain wins most of those and PA, B still just needs to win ONE toss-up state to win.

That's what's different this year than the last 2 elections is that the Repubes are counting on "stealing" whichever state they think it comes down to - this year they would need to steal at least 5 states. Ain't gonna happen.

Look at the polls on RealClearPolitics for the last 2 elections. MOST of them in the past 2 weeks were fairly accurate and 90% of them choose bush in 2004 and he ended up winning with almost the exact same margin that RCP predicted. It is statistically impossible for B to lose this year. I'm not being cocky or letting my guard down, but realistically, McCain would have to win all toss-ups AND even a couple that are leaning strongly to O. No one, not even the Repubes are smart enough to pull that off. A few hundred thousand votes in Ohio or Florida maybe, in different years, but this would be hundreds of thousands of votes in at least 6-7 states.

[hfojvt]

3. they have not

Florida was important in 2000, but Gore would have won the EC with a win in either New Hampshire or Tennessee or Arkansas. In 2004, Kerry would have won the EC if he had taken Iowa and Missouri. There are other combinations of states which were very close and could have tipped the election either way. Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico, etc.

edit: see my post on the swing states, how close Iowa, New Mexico, Wisconsin and New Hampshire were in 2004

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/hfojvt/83

[ThomWV]

4. The gap is too wide now for it to be stolen

Stealing one state, or two states will not do it for McCain and besides that he doesn't have the orginization to keep his own VP in line, there is no way his campaign orginization could coordinate the theft of even one state. This ain't the Bush orginizaiton you are talking about, this is the Rube Goldberg side of the Republican Party.

[WallStreetNobody]

5. You say "all" as if 2 elections is a lot!

Yes, GWB's two elections came down to 1 state, he barely one either election and actually didn't win one of them. This year they are playing that same narrative because its what they've gotten used to, however this is likely not coming down to 1 state. This is shaping up to be a landslide for Obama as long as people GOTV.