Here's why Alter is WRONG and why he knows better

[autorank]

Changes in the last week of campaigning are unusual, very.

Alter claims that McCain can win because many voters are "low information voter

Oh, lord. What they'll do to set up a stolen election.

Voters don't change their minds that much in the last 3 weeks of a campaign, let alone the last 8 days.

Why Alter is propping up the plausibility of a McCain win at this point is his problem.

But he's simply full of shit.

Presidential Polls in the Final Weeks of the Campaign
13 Oct 2008

Posted by Robert S. Erikson

With about three weeks to go before the election, Obama leads McCain by about eight points. While an upset remains possible, Obama is clearly poised as the likely presidential winner. What can we expect from the polls over the next three weeks, and how well will they predict the actual outcome?

For poll-watchers, the temptation is to treat every new poll as a decisive piece of new evidence, as if any departure from the current trend might indicate a change that will carry forward to Election Day. But the next outlier we see will probably be an artifact of routine sampling error rather than a harbinger of true change. True change in preferences occurs slowly, especially during the final weeks of a campaign. Observe the following graph of the Bush-Kerry vote in the polls during the final 28 days leading up to the 2004 campaign.

The most remarkable fact is the near absence of cases in the off-diagonal—where the leader in the poll-of-polls ends up losing. The two exceptions of late-campaign comebacks are Truman’s famous surge in 1948 (partially an artifact of bad polling) and 2000 (Gore’s futile popular vote comeback). Robert S. Erickson, Princeton.edu

[melody]

1. Newsweek wanted a story to sell its magazine

Nearly everyone else will be headlining with "Obama is going to win." So they had Alter write "Here's how McCain will win"
to improve sales.

[autorank]

3. Yep

I'm just surprised Alter did it. It's like the stupie AP Poll, 44-45%. I'm not convinced that it's
so innocent (misleading the public for a buck). It's like there's a little hedge fund, of sorts,
for a last minute steal. Everyone else is inline but national polls are not reflecting the state
polls, it seems.

Just necessary to call them on their b.s. when they do it. I saw this early p.m. and just thought
about it, how stupid the statement was.

[melody]

7. Alter was just positing from that perspective

Clearly he doesn't actually think McCain will win but that he can given the circumstances.

The majority of "undecideds" simply don't vote.

BTW, giving Alter the benefit of the doubt, he probably didn't have a choice about writing it.

[Captain Hilts]

2. There are low information voters voting for both candidates.

I know people that don't like McCain at all, but they believe in the R party's low tax, pro-biz message.

[autorank]

4. Right

But most everybody has made up their minds. There would need to be a huge shift and Alter knows that.
Those hardly ever happen. Cynical aren't they! Shocking;)

[Captain Hilts]

25. That is true. nt

[Lord Helmet]

5. McCain is trying to harvest Hilary's low info voters.

She said Obama couldn't win. She was wrong.

McCain seems to have missed that tiny detail.

[autorank]

11. You're right on target. They were always coming back

The notion that they'd stay away from Obama was about as believable as the Republican House
members saying they voted against the first bailout bill because Nancy Pelosi scolded them.
That was a fav lie of all time.

People who vote choose the candidate representing their interests. Those can be pretty strange,
as in 2000 and 2004 ("He shares my faith") but they usually have to do with money or fervently
held beliefs.

HRC voters are back because they don't want to tumble any further, like the rest of us (except the
19 PUMA's (sic) who showed up at their national meeting :rofl:

[Trajan]

6. Low information voters didnt just pop up out of thin air ....

There were low information voters then .. There are low information voters now ....

There is no reason to assume they will break differently now than they already have ....

[autorank]

19. "no reason to assume" - Thank you!!!

[lonestarnot]

8. Full of shit indeed! And has to know he is full of shit!

[autorank]

12. I think he should go back to the "rug" and being the token liberal

That's more believable.

So we've got AP giving excuses for a stolen election and now Alter.

But Zogby, the man, said the AP Poll was preposterous!

:hi:

[bluedawg12]

9. Uh, I thought they were pushing that low info voters

were waiting for the debates, well, those are done and they spoke resoundingly in favor of Obama.

Now what, some revelation in the next eight days?

The only revelation that would come would require the skies to open and new jobs appear and 401K's restored.

[autorank]

14. As former Gov. Edwin Edwards said about an election he was sure to win

'They'd have to find me in bed with a life boy or a dead girl' to lose this one.

That's about where it's at.

And Edwards should be immediately pardoned when Obama gets in. Travesty to put him in jail.
He was the first victim of fascist election fraud, predicting the treatment Don Siegelman would
suffer.

[Gregorian]

10. The joke's on them. Look at the fluctuations we've seen so far.

There is a clear leader. And it isn't McCain. So what/how would they justify a sudden change. I think it's obvious- given the choice between the two candidates, and the state of affairs our country is in, anyone with more than a single brain cell can see the benefit of an Obama presidency. Or the disaster of a McCain/Palin.

My new term for the day is mean-reversion adjustment. And it isn't going to change dramatically in the last...OMG...T-minus 10 days.

Ten..........

[autorank]

16. 9 soon;)

They can invent all the terms they want. This is not going to change unless it's stolen.

Too many votes to hide, they'd be fools to try it (which of course they are;)

[upi402]

13. Many ARE undecided

My daughter phoned 50 voters in Minnesota and the vast majority were undecided.

Unreal, but she is no dummy and I think it's accurate.
She did like touting Franken and Minnesotans did listen to her.

[autorank]

17. She had a bad day or list

My regrets. That's very frustrating.

But with 3rd parties added, it's looking like undecideds are only about 3%.

Here's one to cheer up you and everybody else.

North Dakota

Research 2000 10/15
McCain 45% - Obama 45%

Forum Poll(MSUM)10/8
McCain 43% - Obama 45%

Rasmussen 9/18
McCain 55% - Obama 41%

Yes, that is North Dakota

[grasswire]

15. PLEASE consider the strategy here

It is better to lower expectations this week. It is common political practice!! It is much, much, much better to have the chatterers talking down the probability of a wide spread.

So let's stop knocking Alter. What he's doing is actually good for Obama.

[autorank]

18. The outcome is good for turnout but the outcome after

one of those "last minute wins" is not so good. I think turnout is obviously in great shape
considering all the early voting.

A better line to motivate turnout is, don't let them steal it again. Massive numbers are protection.

[BrklynLiberal]

20. K&R

[snot]

21. i'm surprised + disappointed in Alter.

the strategy of "lowering expectations," if that's what it is, is foolish in an era of massive election fraud.

a better strategy is to encourage massive turnout by publicizing the likelihood of fraud, together with the fact that the more massive the Dems' lead, the more difficult it is to steal the election.

[autorank]

23. Right, and Alter's job isn't to raise or lower expectations. We take it

at face value. He either believes this or he's being cute. Wrong time, Mr. Alter.

We have few friends in corporate media but I have a friend in Pennsylvania;)

[bleever]

22. If anyone thinks that Crabbe and Goyle are going to save the day,

I've got a used Horcrux to sell you, cheap.

[Douglas Carpenter]

24. If Mr. Alter's point is that it is "possible" then I can't fault him too much

As Mr. Alter says in his own words in the subtitle of the article; how that scenario could (but likely won't) play out.

The very first words in Mr. Alter's article opens with, "The conventional wisdom, which I share, is that Barack Obama will win this election, perhaps by a healthy margin.

Just as if someone who argues that Obama will win with 60% of the popular vote - that is also possible.

Both scenarios are less than likely, but still possible.

I would be quite surprised if either happened. So would Mr. Alter.