http://www.411mania.com/politics/columns/89295/New-Polls-10.31.08:-CO,-IN,-PA,-IA,-NC,-MO,-NV,-NH,-GA,-ND,-AZ,-National,-Trends,-EC.htmNew Polls 10.31.08: CO, IN, PA, IA, NC, MO, NV, NH, GA, ND, AZ, National, Trends, EC
Posted by Ashish on 10.31.2008
Time has nearly run out for John McCain. As the final full week of the election comes to an end, time has nearly run out for John McCain.
-- In Colorado, Public Policy has Obama's lead up to 10%, 54% to 44%. The key note here is that over 60% of the electorate has already voted in Colorado, and among them, Obama leads by 17%.
-- In Indiana, SurveyUSA has the race tied at 47%. Among those who have already voted, Obama leads by 32%.
-- In Pennsylvania, Morning Call has Obama up by 10%, 53% to 43%, while Strategic Vision has Obama up by 5%, 49% to 44%.
-- In Iowa, SurveyUSA has Obama up by 15%, 55% to 40%. Among those who have already voted, Obama leads by a whopping 40%.
-- In North Carolina, InsiderAdvantage has the race tied at 48% while Civitas has Obama up by an insignificant 1% margin, 47% to 46%.
-- In Missouri, InsiderAdvantage has McCain up by 3%, 50% to 47%.
-- In Nevada, the Reno Gazette-Journal has Obama up by 5%, 50% to 45%.
-- In New Hampshire, SurveyUSA has Obama up by 11%, 53% to 42%, UNH has Obama up by 18%, 54% to 36%, Strategic Vision has Obama up by 9%, 50% to 41%, Suffolk has Obama up by 13%, 53% to 40%, and Rasmussen has Obama up by 7%, 51% to 44%.
-- In Georgia, Research 2000 has McCain's lead down to 3%, 47% to 44%, while Rasmussen has McCain up by 5%, 52% to 47%. According to Research 2000's poll, Obama leads by 15% among those who have already voted.
-- In Montana, Research 2000 has McCain up by just 4%, 48% to 44%.
-- In North Dakota, Research 2000 has McCain and Obama in a virtual tie, 47% to 46%.
-- And in John McCain's home state of Arizona, Research 2000 has McCain and Obama in a virtual tie, 48% to 47%. Among those who have already voted, Obama leads by 12%.
-- And here are today's daily trackers. Obama gained or stayed the same in every one of them.
* Gallup RV - Obama 52%, McCain 41%
* Gallup LVI - Obama 52%, McCain 43%
* Gallup LVII - Obama 51%, McCain 43%
* Rasmussen - Obama 51%, McCain 47%
* ABC News - Obama 53%, McCain 44%
* Diageo - Obama 48%, McCain 41%
* Research 2000 - Obama 51%, McCain 45%
-- And here are your national polling averages (averages of all recent polls).
* 538 - Obama 52.0%, McCain 46.4%
* Pollster - Obama 49.8%, McCain 43.9%
* RCP - Obama 50.0%, McCain 43.5%
-- And, most importantly, the latest electoral college breakdowns.
* 538 - Obama 347, McCain 191
* Pollster - Obama 311, McCain 142, Toss Up 85
* RCP - Obama 353, McCain 184
The McCain campain can spin all this data however they want, but there is no way to spin the fact that McCain's own home state has now fallen into what could very well be a virtual tie. That says all there is to say about the state of this race. Yes McCain seems to have improved his position slightly in Missouri and North Carolina, but all that means is that he has pulled two states he should have won fairly easily back into toss-up status. And yes he has made up a couple of points in Pennsylvania after he and Palin have basically camped out there for days now, but all that means is that instead of being behind by 13%-17%, he's behind by 8%-12%. Does any of this really matter in the grand scheme of the election? No.
For the past two weeks, McCain has needed a game-changer. He has needed something big to happen nationally that was positive to him so that he could make up ground everywhere at once. That has not happened.
The other thing I want to stress is how strongly Obama is dominating early voting, and most importantly, that a big percentage of these early voters thus far are new voters
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