US's Syrian raid sets Iraq on fire

[FarCenter]

From Asia Times, By Sami Moubayed http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/JK01Ak05.html

DAMASCUS - The United States raid on Syria on October 27, which led to the killing of eight civilians, sent shockwaves throughout Iraq, mainly enraging the Sunni community, former Ba'athists and tribal leaders who are pro-Syrian.

It came as such a surprise to Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki that he was completely dumfounded at commenting. Here was the prime minister of Iraq, an ally of Iran and a former resident of Syria, watching Syria being attacked from his own territory - without his knowledge.

Maliki's relations with Damascus can be described as cordial at worse, warm at best. They have never been excellent, but he categorically opposes any destabilization of Syria, knowing that the spillover into Iraq would be colossal.

Other politicians, like President Jalal Talabani, also were not informed beforehand of the raid, which added insult to injury. Talabani, too, would have said "no" since, unlike Maliki, he commands an excellent relationship with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Shi'ite leader Muqtada al-Sadr was reportedly furious.

Pressure was so high from disgruntled Iraqis that the Maliki government was forced to change its originally silent attitude towards the raid, 24 hours after US planes landed in the Syrian border town of Abu Kamal. Ali Dabbagh, the government spokesman, explained, "The constitution does not allow Iraq to be used as a staging ground to attack neighboring countries." Assistant Foreign Minister Labid Abbawi added, "We are trying to contain the fallout from the incident. It is regrettable and we are sorry it happened."

A prominent Kurdish politician, Mahmud Othman, confirmed that the raid been carried out without informing the central government in Baghdad. He feared, however, that such action would only add to the anti-American sentiment in Iraq and make it harder for Iraqi officials to sign the controversial Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) security agreement with the US government. This has been debated for months by Washington and Baghdad.

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Shi'ite response

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The Syria raid has electrified Iraq's Shi'ites, who are once again calling on Maliki not to sign the SOFA, claiming it will be used against Iran since it would give the US long-term access to Iraqi territory. This week, the call was repeated by Shi'ite heavyweights Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani (who is originally Persian) and Muqtada.

Sunni response

Sunnis are furious, given their historic relations, both personal and commercial, with the Syrians. While Iran always served as an umbrella for Iraqi Shi'ites, Syria did the same for Iraqi Sunnis and they turned to it in need of shelter and salvation after the downfall of Saddam Hussein's regime in 2003.

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These tribes once formed the backbone of the anti-American movement in Iraq and many of them have joined in the Awakening Councils, created in 2007 to combat al-Qaeda in Iraq. They were persuaded to change sides through political support, money and arms, dished out generously by the Americans. If they get angry with the Americans and decide to abandon the Awakening Councils, this could spell disaster for the US in Iraq

One of the tribes on the verge of an outburst against the Americans because of the raid is the Bakara tribe, with an estimated 1 million people divided in half between Syria and Iraq. The second important tribe is the Tai, with 25,000 members in Syria and a significant number in Iraq. Then comes al-Jabour, with 350,000 people, who are based mainly in Iraq and partially in Syria. The other major strong tribe is the Shammar, which, like al-Bakara, is divided between Syria and Iraq.

The politically weak tribes include the al-Sharabin (90,000 members) and the al-Oudaidat, but which has more than 500,000 members living inside Syria. Other tribes include the al-Ruwula and the Hassana of the Syrian desert; the Butainat and the Abadah, near the ancient city of Palmyra; and the Fadan Walad and the Fadan Kharsah of the Euphrates desert. All of these tribes are "kings of the Syrian-Iraqi border" with more influence to get things done than the Syrians, Iraqis and Americans combined. They are also categorically opposed to confrontation with Syria through Iraqi soil and the Americans cannot but listen to their objections, and take them into serious consideration.

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Conclusion

Until a proper explanation comes out of the US, it is safe to assume that there are people in the outgoing US administration who are angry with the moderate behavior Syria has shown in the past seven months, and want it to change course towards radicalization. Logic says that radicals cannot deal with moderates; it makes them uneasy.

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Sami Moubayed is a Syrian political analyst.

[Karenina]

1. Just keeping Amurikkka safe!!!

[shadowknows69]

2. Mission accomplished

This was to help Bush get his unholy non-treaty treaty signed.

[dixiegrrrrl]

3. "The constitution does not allow..." Maliki said.

He sure must not be plugged in to the last 8 years of Bush-Waaaaa.

Why on earth would he think our regime would give a rats ass about Iraqi constitution?