Are we headed for a depression?

[.... callchet ....]

[trthnd4jstc]

1. Maybe, but please realize working with friends, through trade, and barter, will help. n/t

[Donnachaidh]

2. what do you mean *headed*?

To the many hundreds of thousands thrown out of work in the last six months -- it's already HERE.

[Warren Stupidity]

3. Do try to construct an actual poll next time, ok?

p.s. you probably still have time to fix this one.

[.... callchet ....]

6. Help please

how do you do that ?

[valerief]

7. When you post a message, click on Click Here to Post a Poll.

Easy.

[Tangerine LaBamba]

4. "... headed for..."???

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

[live love laugh]

28. My thoughts exactly. nt

[gateley]

5. We're there. nt

[ThomWV]

8. It would appear that we are too damned broke to vote in a poll

[Deja Q]

14. And the OP was too broke to put in any details clarifying how or why one might occur.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

9. We've been there for quite a while

that's why it is important to rely upon friends and neighbors. Together we'll see it through.

[machI]

10. The actual question to ask is 'When will we hit bottom?'

[backscatter712]

11. I'd like to think optimistically and say there's time to turn things around.

Yeah, I'd say we're already in a deep recession/depression, but once Obama takes office, maybe he can get some stimulus going, turn around our clusterfucked economic policies and get us on the mend.

[Hawkowl]

15. Stimulus lag

Budgetary stimulus takes at least 9 months to kick in. Historically, a stimulus package doesn't start showing results for 12 to 18 months. So there really isn't any time left to "turn it around" quickly. We've been in recession for over a year and we missed that boat.

My "feeling" is that once Obama takes office there will be a brief feeling of good will and optimism about the economy but that we will be MASSIVELY blind sided by all sorts of bad news that Bush has been hiding. So, if Obama holds to the tried and true strategy of just getting all the bad news out at once so we can deal with it, then the first part of 2009 is going to hurt like 1930. Obama has even said outright that it is going to get worse before it gets better, which I took to mean that he has already uncovered some really bad news.

Retail, exports, and investments have hit 30 year lows and are approaching lows not seen since WWII with no bottom in sight. Unemployment claims are still INCREASING on a WEEKLY basis with again, no end in sight of increases! Let alone stabilization or decreases in the unemployment rate. When unemployment starts to decrease then we will know we have turned the corner. 8% unemployment is already here and 10% will likely be reached by spring. I'm guessing between 12-15% unemployment at the worst of this Bush Depression--if Obama, Congress, and the Fed do everything right in the next six months. They screw it up or delay the stimulus and we could match or exceed the Great Depression of the 1930's. People don't know that "Depressions" used to be routine and prior to the 1930's they used to be called panics. During the 1930's, FDR set up the "New Deal", beefed up the Fed's regulatory powers, and passed such laws as the Glass Steagall Act to prevent fraud and speculation. These policies were specifically designed in large part to mitigate Depressions/Panics.

Bush and his cronies have systematically dismantled virtually all the safeguards and mitigation policies so it is only natural that the DEPRESSIONS RETURN! Like a really bad B movie. Obama will only be closing the barn door after the horses are gone. It takes a while to round up horses and bring them back to the barn (unless that's the only place to get feed :-)

[w8liftinglady]

12. I think some parts of the country will be hit harder than others.

[Deja Q]

13. Depends.

[4 t 4]

16. Helen Thomas said we are in one now. n/t

[dysfunctional press]

17. and then some...i think we're going to find out what comes after depression...

recession...depression...??? :shrug:

[dkofos]

18. We will know for sure this time next year.

[natrat]

19. a depression with a rural farm based population like the 30s is doable

one with huge #s of urbanites unable to feed themselves is going to suck

[theophilus]

20. If FDR had been President in 1930 that one wouldn't have been so

"Great" either. IMHO. Obama has a lot more at his disposal and we are at an intersection for change in many, many areas.

[Kip Humphrey]

21. Let's see...Equities halved, assets shrinking, unemployment rising, credit frozen,

economic activity declining, dollar & prices falling...
I'd say we're juuust about there... depression, that is.

[blues90]

22. I really hope not

But the way things look and have been going it looks like hope is just a word.

It's difficult to imagine how this would look like where I live , not that it's safe here but you cannot get any sort of read on the reality of things here in southern calif . I see mostly new cars on the road and the area right where I live seems to look the same.

That is just a visual though , I don't know what the people are actually dealing with since no one here ever seems to talk about anything personal.

I have seen a lot of U-hauls loading up and not un-loading in many apt buildings that surround me and in the building I live in it is come and go which it never was before.

[ozone_man]

23. Probably in six months would my best estimate.

Technically, we're not there yet. Also, keep in mind that the way unemployment is calculated today is much different than it was during the GD. Also, the GD did not have high unemployment until three years into it. We've only just begun and are at about the same as 1930 in regards to true unemployment. 2010-2011 could be very bad.

[Xenotime]

24. Obama will be able to save the country from demise.

[babsbunny]

25. Say yes? Then the Universe will say Yes

What you think about you bring about!

[.... callchet ....]

26. Well it

is beyond belief where the country is going. But then we are looking at it from the wrong perspectives. We did not disappoint anyone that is

benefiting from non productive wealth creating. If left alone, the country will have successfully been turned into a third world country. The

aristocratic wealthy will have an endless supply of cheap labor. Dozens of workers to wash cars, do massive gardens and bow humbly. There will

be cheap labor to do all the grand ole things, like build another Biltimore. Just take a second to look at health care. It is an easy target to look

at Canada and criticize there health care. But the Canadian health care is far superior than the health care that the uninsured have

in the USA. That is the point that escapes debate. Obama has to go to the end game. He has to raise taxes on the upper brackets, raise taxes at a

progressive rate on savings and assets, make it illegal for private citizens to control money over a certain amount. Do away with all speculative

leveraged market ploys as well as all gambling, make it illegal to buy lottery ticket's privately, issue everyone a free ticket, start first to put

people to work by quadrupling the law enforcement forces. This is the line of reasoning that he has to extrapolate, the agenda is human rights.


" People First "

[.... callchet ....]

27. People First

Well it
is beyond belief where the country is going. But then we are looking at it from the wrong perspectives. We did not disappoint anyone that is

benefiting from non productive wealth creating. If left alone, the country will have successfully been turned into a third world country. The

aristocratic wealthy will have an endless supply of cheap labor. Dozens of workers to wash cars, do massive gardens and bow humbly. There will

be cheap labor to do all the grand ole things, like build another Biltimore. Just take a second to look at health care. It is an easy target to look

at Canada and criticize there health care. But the Canadian health care is far superior than the health care that the uninsured have

in the USA. That is the point that escapes debate. Obama has to go to the end game. He has to raise taxes on the upper brackets, raise taxes at a

progressive rate on savings and assets, make it illegal for private citizens to control money over a certain amount. Do away with all speculative

leveraged market ploys as well as all gambling, make it illegal to buy lottery ticket's privately, issue everyone a free ticket, start first to put

people to work by quadrupling the law enforcement forces. This is the line of reasoning that he has to extrapolate, the agenda is human rights.


" People First "
" People First "