Wall Street is crashing and burning today.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

the NYSE is crashing horribly, with 13-1 ratios. There are 30 brand new lows in the S&P 500, meaning that 30 companies have never seen stock prices this low. ever.

the volumes on the downside are HUGE.

this is going to be the worst day ever in the market.

watch for the market to close under 8,000.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

1. hell, the DOW is already down 270.

and the pressures are on much lower prices.

[babylonsister]

2. Thanks. I hadn't been paying attention, not that that

would do any good.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

4. heh, about as much good as prayer.

[xchrom]

3. recommend -- fasten your seat belts. nt

[ChairmanAgnostic]

5. kinda sad to recommend this kind of news, tho, huh?

Not that I mind several hundred hedge fund managers suddenly finding themselves totally broke. But as for the rest of us . . .

[xchrom]

20. i find it very sad.

our fellow americans are going to suffer badly.

no good news in that.

[Spouting Horn]

65. Actually,

hedge funds have been outperforming mutual funds, for instance.

Hedge funds down "only" 18% for 2008. Compare that to other indexes and the rest of the market, that's pretty damn good.

[GoesTo11]

6. What's another year or two more until retirement

Anyway, the mailing I got from my 401k said the best thing to do in volatile times is to stay the course and whatever I do, keep contributing the max.

[greguganus]

10. Me too. I have about 15 years until retirement. Staying the course. (Nervously) n/t

[CoffeeCat]

25. But do you really believe that these...

..."volatile times" are like previously experienced volatile times?

If you believe that this is just another dip in the economy from which
we will recover, then staying the course makes total sense.

I'm no financial wizard, but I sense that we're experience a complete
collapse of our economic way of life.

I think our economy is being culled. It's as if our economy has a virus,
and nature is weeding out an overly populated, bloated system.

I see a complete paradigm shift.

[GoesTo11]

44. Beats me - could be the endgame

We just do the best we can, and if that means working as long as possible and living more frugally, so be it. I can't really tell which way the market will go. My whole retirement plan - like most of us - is predicated on having some growth rate larger than inflation from my investments. If the market stays flat or if drops more, in either case, the future is going to look about the same. I'm still in international stocks. I figure that the world will continue even if the US role diminishes.

I don't think this is really the end of the economy as we know it. We've got problem solvers coming into Washington so it won't go in an out of control spiral to hell. There are still going to be companies and they'll be worth something, people will still work. The 40 trillion dollars worth of houses aren't about to fall down. Life will go on, there will just be less. At the top, where people have more than they should be able to spend, it won't make a difference. At the high end, this just means fewer trips to Disney World, and fewer cruiselines, and fewer snowboarding trips, less new car smell, no granite countertops, and fewer years of scooting around. In the middle, it will mean fewer leisure hours, fewer nights out, fewer square feet, and fewer nice touches. At the bottom, it will mean fewer years of life and fewer teeth. So, yeah, some weeding out, but it won't look all that different afterward.

[eridani]

70. Our real capital isn't going to go away

Physical capital and intellectual capital can be put to use any time. Financial capital is another story.

[progressoid]

29. Retirement? What's that?

[SammyWinstonJack]

55. Yeah, no kidding. 'Shop til you drop'? More like 'Work til you drop'.

x(

[DainBramaged]

7. More reason for these criminals to come to Obama hat in hand

[glitch]

12. Confidence in the market will not be restored until the criminals are removed from the system.

Prison will do.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

23. that is a very good point.

[glitch]

28. It's crucial, IMO, and deserves its own thread from someone who can write.

:) hint hint

[SOS]

50. If you decide on starting that thread...

May I suggest including parts of the solution proposed recently by Michael Lewis in the NYT:

"There are other things the Treasury might do when a major financial firm assumed to be “too big to fail” comes knocking, asking for free money. Here’s one: Let it fail.

Not as chaotically as Lehman Brothers was allowed to fail. If a failing firm is deemed “too big” for that honor, then it should be explicitly nationalized, both to limit its effect on other firms and to protect the guts of the system. Its shareholders should be wiped out, and its management replaced. Its valuable parts should be sold off as functioning businesses to the highest bidders — perhaps to some bank that was not swept up in the credit bubble. The rest should be liquidated, in calm markets. Do this and, for everyone except the firms that invented the mess, the pain will likely subside."

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/04/opinion/04lewiseinhornb.html

[glitch]

68. Not me, not a writer. Thanks for the article though, looks good. nt

[Soylent Brice]

41. ding ding ding!!!!!!!

EXACTLY.

numbers go up, numbers go down. nothing will really matter to the avg person until they see visible change with those that are in control of this disaster.

[nbsmom]

46. Robert Heller had an interesting idea in last Sunday's SF Chronicle

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/01/11/INUN1541J4.DTL&hw=pie&sn=001&sc=1000

[Soylent Brice]

61. easy as PIE. clever.

thanks for the link!

[.... callchet ....]

8. Tomorrow

Has the problem been that the brokers were telling everybody it's going to better tomorrow.. So keep on buying !

[CoffeeCat]

32. The brokers together with the media...

...are only interested in Americans as objects to be manipulated.

The past three weeks, all financial media talking heads have been pushing the, "It's like...such
a great time to buy, because everything is so cheap!"

Well yeah, that's true. IF that was the bottom.

No one knows if three weeks ago was the bottom. These talking heads serve to prop up Wall Street
and big corporations. Their entire existence is to keep Americans calm and oblivious--so they'll
"stay the course" and continue to prop up the stock market.

I've seen this from a corporate side as well. I worked in PR for a public company. You can damn
well bet that every financial reporter and talking head is being harangued by corporate PR people--
pitching them stories and begging for coverage. Seventy percent of what you read in the newspaper,
and that includes corporate/financial news--is generated from a PR person--either issuing a press
release or pitching a news story.

We must do our own due diligence and rely on our instincts and intuition.

[Statistical]

40. And NEVER buy all at once.

If you want say 400 shares of a company:

Buy 100 shares and set limit for another 100 at a point or two lower.
If that executes then buy another 100 at point or two lower.

Spread out your buys in both time and price.
With the volatility in market today buying at once (either one time, or one price) is way too risky.

When you get an unsustainable run-up takes some off the table. You don't need to sell it all but lock in that high price. Given the volatility you will have a chance to gets some later and lower.

[Irish Girl]

67. Excellent post, TwoSparkles

:applause: :applause:

[gristy]

9. Worst day ever? You think the DJ is going to drop more than 2000 points?

Ah!!!!!!!! All is lost!!!!!!!!!!

[ChairmanAgnostic]

15. it is well on its way. no shitting.

the volume on down bets are 300 million. Those buying, expecting stable or positive price changes, 5 million.

a 60-1 ratio is about as close to doomsday that you can find. the Dow is already down 300.

anyway, with the dow at 8400 to start the day, a record loss (in terms of percentage) would be less than 2000, only because 2000/14,000 ratio is hard to match. Check out CNBC, every arrow is down, some really badly down.

[gristy]

16. 2000/8400=23.8%

I found this list on the internets:

10 Worst days in Dow Jones History.
By BP
Rank Date % Chg
1 12/12/1914 -24.39
2 10/19/1987 -22.61
3 10/28/1929 -12.82
4 10/29/1929 -11.73
5 11/6/1929 -9.92
6 12/18/1899 -8.72
7 08/12/1932 -8.4
8 03/14/1907 -8.29
9 10/26/1987 -8.04
10 7/21/1933 -7.84

[ChairmanAgnostic]

17. thanks. neat numbing numbers.

[madrchsod]

11. just think of all the money

the gamblers are going to make today on the upside...

[Maven]

13. I know: why don't we give the "banking sector" another "capital infusion"

I actually read this on the NYT yesterday. "Banking sector." "Capital infusion." Sounds better than "cash giveaway to bankers," doesn't it?

:argh:

[slipslidingaway]

18. Another 350 billion needed :( n/t

[SOS]

51. Today's NYT is saying $1.8 trillion.

:banghead:

[slipslidingaway]

56. Billions, trillions and we do not need to know who gets the $$$

:(

$1.2 Trillion Slush Fund: Congressman Alan Grayson Grills Fed Vice Chair Donald Kohn
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mj0JAfq4esk



If you have a link that would be great, came up with this from Sept...

Fed Bailout Now To Include Foreign Banks; Will Amount To $1.8 Trillion

http://www.mytwodollars.com/2008/09/22/fed-bailout-now-to-include-foreign-banks-will-amount-to-18-trillion/

[SOS]

57. From today's edition of the NYT

"Banks in Need of Even More Bailout Money" Page A1

"Industry analysts estimate rising unemployment and business failures will lead to another $500 billion to $750 billion of losses in coming months. That could bring total losses from the credit crisis to $1.5 trillion to $1.8 trillion, twice as high as earlier estimates."

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/14/business/economy/14fed.html

[slipslidingaway]

59. Thanks for the link :) we always have the Bernanke printing press

:(

[slipslidingaway]

60. delete - dup n/t

[Greyhound]

27. Off 3.27%

:kick:

[CoffeeCat]

14. I'm so glad that we got out our 401k funds...

...out of the stock market and into MM funds.

I'm just a half-wit, but I saw this coming. In the fall, it was clear that holiday
sales were going to be abysmal. Many companies were failing, and it felt as if
many were hanging on by their fingernails--praying for a holiday miracle.

I was betting that those miracles would never arrive.

I grew up in a family that owned a bunch of retail and restaurant franchises, so I've
always known what happens to retail (and discretionary spending in general) in Jan, Feb.

As the holiday sale stats trickle in--and as the early '09 sales look bleaker than hell--
a major crash looks inevitable.

My husband kept telling me to ride the wave...and that the market will go back up.

I disagreed. Yes, we will recover from these horrendous economic times. However,
this economic event is more than a dip. It's a paradigm shift. Our economy has
propped up so many malls, strip malls, retail outlets and restaurants--with credit
card spending and people dipping into their home equity.

That well is now dry.

Many businesses will go bankrupt, or will simply close. So, the dip will also
include a shattering. The market that dips down will drop off many businesses
and what emerges will not be what initially went down.

That's what I feel in my gut. But what do I know--but I am glad that we 'got out'
and I feel comfortable with that decision.

Hang on everyone! Iceberg! Right ahead!

[SOS]

53. Your bets were sound

As market "glitches" or "bumps in the road" happened over the past 10 years, it became evident that something was really wrong.
The collapse of Long Term Capital, the internet bubble bursting, Enron and many other signs were there.
We too pulled out of mutual funds in 2000, opting for fixed income.
Our retirement management guy went nuts, saying that we must stay in! Stocks are always a winner in the long run.
We disagreed and got out.
My wife then lost her job and we had to dip into the retirement fund to pay bills.
We are deeply thankful that we used that money, rather than watch half of it simply disappear (again).

[Mari333]

19. i am getting used to it.

as my retirement goes down the toilet, i just cut back even more. what me worry? is my new mantra.

[Statistical]

21. Worst day ever? How long have you been in the market? 9 months?

300 pt move down is big but nothing like worst day ever.

Hell last year we have 300pt move in futures in PRE MARKET.
Kicked in circuit breakers for S&P future contracts and halted trading.

The market "may" close under 8000 but if it holds at 8000 we will see technical buying kick in.

It is a large down move but you are blowing it WAY WAY WAY out of proportion.

[.... callchet ....]

30. From :gristy (1000+ posts) Wed Jan-14-09 09:52 AM

2000/8400=23.8%
I found this list on the internets:

10 Worst days in Dow Jones History.
By BP
Rank Date % Chg
1 12/12/1914 -24.39
2 10/19/1987 -22.61
3 10/28/1929 -12.82
4 10/29/1929 -11.73
5 11/6/1929 -9.92
6 12/18/1899 -8.72
7 08/12/1932 -8.4
8 03/14/1907 -8.29
9 10/26/1987 -8.04
10 7/21/1933 -7.84

from gristy's post

[Fly by night]

22. I am glad that the only stock I've ever owned was what I could count in my pasture at sunset.

Eat the rich (or what's left of them).

[slipslidingaway]

24. How This Bear Market Compares

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/10/11/business/20081011_BEAR_MARKETS.html

[closeupready]

31. Interesting - this bear market seems to be falling faster than any other, including 1929-32.

Thanks for the link.

[slipslidingaway]

43. You're welcome n/t

[Coyote_Bandit]

26. The market

is still overpriced IMHO.

The Dow probably should be somewhere around 6800. That level might better reflect both historical market P/E and current sentiment regarding future performance.

No real concern here until we get close to the 7000 level for the Dow.

Chill.

[TahitiNut]

48. I agree ... and have been estimating mid-6000's for years. That's how inflated I see the market.

:shrug: As corporations commit kapitalist hari-kiri and shed senior, experienced employees, that level could go lower.

[Javaman]

33. Too bad wall street itself couldn't crash and burn instead of my 401K. nt

[newtothegame]

34. Lets hope not...we shouldn't exactly celebrate just b/c we don't like those in power...

[Greyhound]

36. Do you pull off the band-aid slowly or all at once? n/t

[Two Americas]

69. celebrate?

Who is celebrating?

This is a variation on the Republican "blame America first" arguments - the false and derogatory idea that any who point out dangers must therefore want things to go badly.

[babylonsister]

35. Markets Tumble On Worse Than Expected Retail Sales Numbers

Stocks tumble on disappointing retail sales

Wall Street tumbles on downbeat retail sales report, continuing worries about banking sector

SARA LEPRO and TIM PARADIS
AP News

Jan 14, 2009 10:32 EST


A dismal reading on retail sales and worries about the banking industry pounded stocks early Wednesday. Major stock indexes lost more than 2.5 percent, including the Dow Jones industrial average, which fell 235 points.

Although investors already knew that retailers suffered a terrible holiday season, a government report on December sales was a surprise. The Commerce Department said retail sales dropped 2.7 percent, more than double the 1.2 percent decline analysts expected.

The pullback marked a record sixth straight month of declines and was the latest sign of the troubles facing consumers. A steep drop in home prices, rising unemployment and difficulty accessing credit have given many consumers no choice but to pare their spending.

The weakness in consumer spending has been a major factor in the economy's deterioration and analysts say they don't see that improving soon. That's troubling for investors because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Many predict the recession, already the longest in a quarter-century, will persist at least until late this year.

more...

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2009/01/stocks_tumble_on_disappointing_retail_sales.php

[Marr]

37. Wait a minute-- isn't the second half of that $700 billion coming up for a vote this week?

*sniff* *sniff*

Something smells.

[earth mom]

38. I was thinking the exact same thing. * has a week left to do more damage....

:scared:

[high density]

52. The money would go to Obama's administration

There is a 15 day period after the request of the funds where the senate can "veto" the request. Bush doesn't have enough time to get the money.

[Junkdrawer]

39. Indeed. n/t

[slipslidingaway]

49. .........n/t

[Common Sense Party]

42. This will most definitely NOT be the "worst day ever in the market."

Nice hyperbole, Chicken Little. :eyes:

[cherokeeprogressive]

58. I'm with you. Bookmarking this thread as I have a hundred others

from the US attacking Iran in April of LAST year, to Bush declaring Martial Law and throwing out the results of the General Election, to the Stock Market crashing. Let's not forget that we're all going to die due to Chemtrails so it really doesn't matter in the long run.

The market will do what water does. It will find its own level.

[Two Americas]

63. misleading

Far more of the dire predictions people have been making have come true than not.

Chemtrails?

People are liable to use hyperbole when they are not listened to and handed reassuring saccharine platitudes such as "the market will find its own level." People are terrorized and confused and are being lied to and misled at every turn. It should not surprise us that they latch onto fanciful visions and chicken little scenarios in their desperation. People escalate their alarmist claims when they are dismissed and ignored.

I would say that the "don't worry everything is fine" folks have been discredited far more than "the sky is falling" folks have been, if we are going to make absurd generalizations.

There is very real suffering going on, and I can't understand why anyone would take a smug, complacent and condescending attitude about this crisis. You may be fine. You may not be worried. But millions of people most definitely are not fine, and have good cause for worry.

A little humility and compassion are in order, in my opinion. Millions of people do not have the luxury of worrying about whether or not they are "right" nor any energy or inclination to indulge in ridiculing others or looking down their noses at them.

Too many people here are privileged, upscale educated professional people from the top 10% income bracket, and are largely insulated from the horrors the rest of the people are facing. I find the arrogant and contemptuous attitudes many are expressing to be truly obscene in a time when so many people are frightened and suffering.

Chemtrails?

[Carolann]

66. Ya' got that right..

Time for a little compassion. Hell, I don't have time for anything, but death which is staring us in the face. We're 67 & 64 still working to pay off medical debts and He's going to lose his job in June. She's desperately hanging on watching the 401K's tank. Compassion is all we have left! Thanks for your comment...and the rest of you can stuff it - you ARE the MEANING of OBSCENITY!

[Neshanic]

45. The worst day will be in the fall of 2009. That will be the final curtain.

[high density]

54. Final curtain?

Is America closing up shop that soon? I wish it would at least wait 40 years so I can make some money first.

[raccoon]

47. Alas, Babylon. nt

[Yukari Yakumo]

62. Factoid: For the first time since the Carter Administration...

For the first time since the Carter Administration has the market closed lower at the end of a Presidency than it did at the beginning.

Also...

W is the first President ever to have served eight years (or more) and have the market closed lower at the end of their Presidency than it did at the beginning.

[newtothegame]

64. Pretty bold prediction considering you're gonna be wrong on most of it.

Next time I would recommend not making guarantees about the day's market at 7:36am. I guess you got the recs you wanted though.

[Occam Bandage]

71. This is why nobody goes to DU for financial analysis.