Robert Baer: Could a Missing Iranian Spark a War?

[sabra]

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1601814,00.html

Could a Missing Iranian Spark a War?
By ROBERT BAER

I've tried my best to find out what happened to the man who could spark a war with Iran, but he seems to have disappeared like a diamond in an inkwell. And it makes me nervous.

General Ali Reza Asgari, a former intelligence officer in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and deputy defense minister until 2005, was last seen in public around December 7 in Istanbul. Iran says Israel and the United States kidnapped him, presumably to coerce him into telling lies about Iran. The Washington Post has reported he is in U.S. custody, spilling his guts, and more recently the New York Times reported that the German defense minister, when asked about Asgari's whereabouts, said "I cannot say anything on this issue." But both the U.S. and Israel deny having him, let alone kidnapping him.

Normally, vanished intelligence officers barely merit one short paragraph on page eight. Asgari is different, though. As the IRGC commander in Lebanon in the late '80s and early '90s, he knows dirty secrets, secrets that could be used to justify going to war with Iran. Asgari was in the IRGC's chain of command when it was kidnapping and assassinating Westerners in Lebanon in the '80s. Asgari knows a lot about other IRGC-ordered, Lebanon-based terrorist attacks, including the October 1983 Marine barracks bombing in Beirut and the 1996 bombing of Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia.

...

The more important question is what Asgari's possible defection would mean for this Administration's plans for Iran. Nothing is certain when it comes to Iran, but here's what I think we should look for: If Asgari resurfaces in the next couple months with a detailed, convincing bill of indictment against Iran and Hizballah (unlike Khalid Sheikh Mohammed's supposed confession), we should expect a confrontation. For instance, in the late '80s Hizballah, under IRGC orders, sent plastic explosives to secret cells around the world. Only one shipment was intercepted. The others are presumably still in place. If Asgari helps us dig one up, the Administration has a propaganda weapon it never had going into the Iraq war.

On the other hand, if Asgari remains in his inkwell, the Bush Administration may have decided to leave Iran alone.

[Selatius]

1. At this point, there's nothing we could do if US-Israel does have Asgari

If he has been kidnapped, we must ask ourselves if he's being tortured into giving Bush Co. the ammunition it needs to justify a violent confrontation with Iran.

[PATRICK]

2. And they blew the credibility

of the recent "mastermind" who confessed under torture. That has immensely weakened any such powerful ploy except for the fact that the media always plays along- at first, which in a case of quick war is extremely dangerous.

Also they have to spring this disappeared catch at the same time as a suspicious confession. This can be very likely part of a fast escalation scenario and is a good speculative catch. Any second thoughts based on the WH mangling of similar source confessions and terrible interrogation methods and this alone is far from enough for anything. Probably this would have to included in a war prop package deal with other "imminent" causes.

[democrat_patriot]

3. This was discussed last night on the radio. He defected.

At least that was the story last night on the John Loftus NovaMradio show. It was made to look like a kidnapping by MI6. His family was also moved, along with several other Generals.

MI6 has him and he is being debriefed. It was stated that he has info on Iran's 'secret' nuclear program in Syria. That he is going to talk about the nuclear weapons that are already produced.

This makes *'s case for war with Iran very strong, credibility or not. I would think that the US will stay out of it, and say the info comes from the UK, or Lebanon.

Loftus stated that Israel & Argentina would have a solid and legal case for war now.

[sabra]

4. this is scary stuff... :-(

[Selatius]

5. Argentina has a dog in this fight? n/t

[democrat_patriot]

6. From what I heard - and I have no audio transcript.

Is that this General was in charge of a group that did some 'nasty' business. Kidnappings, assassinations etc. and that he was responsible for a killing or two in Argentina. Or possibly a terrorist act?