Wow, I Predicted This Crash -- A Blast FromThe DU Past

[Yavin4]

This is a thread that I started in 2004!!!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x986336

I got into it with a lurking Freeper named, Frodo, who was TS later.

Here's a snippet:

Now, I know you're a rah-rah Bush economy supporter. That's all fine, but I'm here to warn you that you're making the kind of mistake that causes economic crashes. You're confusing debt growth with real growth. Every positive economic stat that you're seeing is built on the back of easy to get credit, and once that credit gets just a little bit more expensive, WHAMO! a crash.

[liberalmuse]

1. Whoa! And yet our "experts" in the Treasury...

some of whom are still running policy didn't have a clue? That's astounding. Unbelievable, really. They knew, but what they didn't know is that it would unravel before the new Dem President took office. I don't think that was the plan. Hell, a lot of us here knew a crash was coming, but it looks like you called it dead on, and you have proof that you did. Love it! :toast: :applause: :yourock:

[geckosfeet]

2. Current policies still have very low interest rates, and call for increased

lending from banks etc. If I read that article correctly, it is saying that cheap credit allowed us to get into debt trouble, and that it is all coming together at once (perfect storm) and choking the economy.

If that is true, why does monetary policy continue to push cheap credit?

[Yavin4]

3. The Situation Is Very Different Today

Back then, monetary policy had a lot of control over our economy. Today, it does not because so many banks got burned that no one is lending.

It's like being an alcoholic, you've drunk so much that it no longer has any effect on you.

[truedelphi]

13. How does monetary policy not factor into today's economy?

Not sure I follow your thinking on this.

We still have monetary policy - it is called "printing money" and will bring about vast inflation at some point. What is even worse is that much of this printed up money is going to try and fill in the unfillable hole of a 550 trillion dollar deficit wrought by the banks turning into casinos. If they were just sitting on the assets of the Tarps we've given to them, that would be one thing. But they are using the TARP money to buy things, and some expoerts predict among the things the banks will buy willbe utilities such as the local power utility or even the water utility.

Coming soon: the $ 500 a month water bill to each consumer.

[Yavin4]

14. Interest Rates Are Nearly At 0% And It Has Zero Effect

Banks are not lending because no one can be trusted to pay the money or the borrower may be insolvent.

The days of the Fed controlling the direction of the economy, the Maestro era, are over.

Also, inflation is being hedged with deflation in asset prices.

[Liberal_in_LA]

4. Obama needs you in his cabinet!

[malaise]

5. Great 'Blast from the Past'

Frodo should have chosen the username Freepo

[FreakinDJ]

6. Cool - I was reply #2

The present economy crumbling and Bush winning in 04.

I have been wondering myself what is propping up this falsely inflated economy. There is "No Meat" behind it, kinda like a over inflated gas bag (sorry Rush no pun intended)

I nailed the economy prediction pretty well - but that was a given

[elocs]

7. Who bets that Frodo is till lurking here amongst the 1000 posters with a new name?

Who might Frodo be now? (A rhetorical question in the sense that the rules will not allow it to be answered.)

[Mrs. Overall]

8. Good for you Yavin! People like you, here on DU, saved my family from financial disaster--

I began to notice DUers intelligently discussing the coming economic collapse with facts and data to back up their arguments in 2007, so I simply stopped spending, began saving, and made some major lifestyle changes. Thank God, because my spouse lost his job and we survived for many months on the money I had squirreled away until we found work again. I would not have saved resources like I did if not for DU because mainstream media was certainly not talking about a coming economic crisis.

[Yavin4]

10. You're Welcome!

At the time of that post, I was working as temp and had a huge student loan on my back. I followed my own advice and paid off that sucker two years later. I've been debt free since 2006, and I posted several times about this current collapse, going all the way back to 2002.

I knew that the GDP growth at the time was based on people borrowing huge sums of money, and I knew at the time that job growth was anemic. They were borrowing so much because Greenspan kept rates artificically low to help Bush win re-election in 2004.

Sure enough, right before and after the 2004 election, Greenspan hiked rates like crazy, and when he realized that things were going to turn sour, he ran for the hills.

[GoesTo11]

9. How many of the large number of DUers who foresaw this crash

decided to make a fortune by shorting the market?

[bvar22]

11. K&R

I would be rofl if your being right wasn't so tragic.

Howcum the people who were RIGHT have been excluded from leadership positions in the new administration?
Howcum the people who were RIGHT have been excluded from the Talking Head Shows?

Why does anyone still care what Bill Crystal, Robert Rubin, Richard Pearle, Karl Rove, any Republican or "Centrist" Democrat....
have to say about ANYTHING.

There were many who saw what was coming, and were roundly ridiculed and marginalized at DU.
I'm not a genius, but it was easy to predict the collapse of property values and the attendant mortgage crisis....but that prediction was ridiculed at DU.

My wife and I started making plans in 2004. In 2006, we sold everything, cashed out IRAs, bought "Bubble Proof" property, and moved to The Woods.



Frodo sure reminds me of someone who posts today.....can't put my finger on it.

[rug]

12. You were right and Frodo was banned.