The Sushi Bandit
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Thu Apr-30-09 05:02 PM
Original message |
Computer Simulation of Swine Flu Infection Rate |
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Large-scale computer simulations run by Northwestern University researchers show worst-case scenario projections of approximately 1,700 cases of swine flu for the entire United States four weeks from now. Story and video at: http://current.com/items/90011536_computer-simulation-of-swine-flu-infection-rate.htm
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kestrel91316
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Thu Apr-30-09 05:10 PM
Response to Original message |
1. Oh, boy, I just LOVE what it shows about MY neighborhood. |
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:rofl:
Los Angeles County, the reddest spot on the map soon........and the Valley is half Mexicans.......oy.
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readmoreoften
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Thu Apr-30-09 05:11 PM
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4. I don't expect it to have much to do with Mexico soon. /nt |
kestrel91316
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Thu Apr-30-09 06:30 PM
Response to Reply #4 |
18. Well, Cinco de Mayo celebrations are just around the corner and they are BIG BIG BIG |
readmoreoften
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Thu Apr-30-09 05:10 PM
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2. It's interesting to see how slow an actual "pandemic" is as opposed to Hollywood nightmare scenarios |
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It shows that if we can get our media apparatuses to respond to such events with a PROPER TONE we might be able to prevent and control pandemics in the future.
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Howzit
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Thu Apr-30-09 05:11 PM
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3. This doesn't sound "worst case" considering how much media attention is being given |
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This university must be run by right wingers. I am sure other accademics could run a model that predicts swine flu resulting in over 100 foot sea level rise by 2020....
That begs the question: Why all the media attention to what seems to be a small event?
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readmoreoften
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Thu Apr-30-09 05:14 PM
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8. Wait? Right wingers are more staid than "left wingers" when it comes to producing |
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mathematical models? I'm not sure *wings* have much to do with it. And what's with the pro-right wing bias? Is FOX news less sensational than Democracy Now? Did I miss a memo or something?
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Demoiselle
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Thu Apr-30-09 05:12 PM
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5. 1700 out of 300 million? |
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That's um....(just a minute, I'm playing with my calculator),,, .000005 % of the population
Isn't that sort of low? ( I am an idiot where numbers are concerned.)
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nadinbrzezinski
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Thu Apr-30-09 05:16 PM
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9. This is not for the full year, but four weeks |
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and the only thing I think it is not taking into account, is air travel, or not enough
but if you look at the annual maps for the yearly flu they track someting like this
If you look at the 1918 map, somebody posted the map yesterday from a history program on PBS it looks similar, but going from Kansas on
Of course that is for a full year
Infections , or rather infection rate, looks like a bell curve
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Demoiselle
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Thu Apr-30-09 05:18 PM
Response to Reply #9 |
12. Thanks for the perspective! (eom) |
rosesaylavee
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Thu Apr-30-09 05:57 PM
Response to Reply #9 |
17. And given the number of cases in Cook County (Chicago) |
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it sure doesn't account for the millions of commuters who work in the City and live in the 'burbs.
Interesting map but highly doubt it will be close to accurate. Guess we will see won't we.
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readmoreoften
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Thu Apr-30-09 05:17 PM
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10. Yeah, but there won't be a vaccine for a few months, so it will either fizzle on its own |
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or grow from that point on. During earlier pandemics, we most likely wouldn't have the slightest clue about what was happening until a few months in.
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nadinbrzezinski
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Thu Apr-30-09 05:31 PM
Response to Reply #10 |
15. There is something that the geeks know |
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except for 1976, where it started and fizzled out at Fort Dix, every other pandemic has had waves.
By the way 1976 was not a pandemic, never even got to the definition of epidemic, though I do get it why public health freaked out
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graywarrior
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Thu Apr-30-09 05:12 PM
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6. I can't make out NH results. |
nadinbrzezinski
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Thu Apr-30-09 05:14 PM
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7. THanks for us geeks that is great |
hedgehog
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Thu Apr-30-09 05:17 PM
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11. But, other maps show cases alrady in Kansas, Ohio, Michigan and Indiana. |
Muttocracy
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Thu Apr-30-09 05:19 PM
Response to Reply #11 |
14. exactly - see map link below. South Carolina too. nt |
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Edited on Thu Apr-30-09 05:20 PM by Muttocracy
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Muttocracy
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Thu Apr-30-09 05:18 PM
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13. Due to air travel it's way more stochastic than that |
alfredo
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Thu Apr-30-09 05:41 PM
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16. I'm not really worried about this flu. I think it is good to be cautious. |
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