Dollars & Sense: April-to-May Job Loss: 532,000

[marmar]

Wednesday, June 03, 2009


April-to-May Job Loss: 532,000
by Dollars and Sense


The ADP National Employment Report covers "nonfarm private employment" and comes out a bit in advance of Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The current report revises upward by 54,000 the estimate of job losses in March-to-April job loss, and estimates April-to-May job loss at 532,000. So it appears that, even before the massive job losses that should follow the bankruptcy of GM, the U.S. economy is still shedding more than half a million jobs a month. So much for "green shoots."

Our July/August issue will include an "Economy in Numbers" by John Miller on unemployment, comparing the official unemployment rate (currently 8.5% as of March) with the BLS's broader alternative U-6 measure, which also includes marginally employed and unwillingly part-time workers. John says: "opping the 8.9% peak unemployment rate of the 1973-75 recession or even the 10.8% peak rate in the 1982 recession is now only a matter of time." And that's for the official rate; the U-6 rate is already at 15.6% for March.

Here's the abstract of the ADP report:

The ADP National Employment Report

May, 2009

Nonfarm private employment decreased 532,000 from April to May 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report ©. The estimated change of employment from March to April was revised by 54,000, from a decline of 491,000 to a decline of 545,000.

http://www.dollarsandsense.org/blog/2009/06/april-to-may-job-loss-532000.html

[OhioChick]

1. Not to worry....

"Bernanke sees recession ending soon"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3906323

[madrchsod]

2. the during the 73-75 recession i was a union worker.....

when i was laid off i received unemployment plus health care coverage for 6 months. although i was low in seniority was not laid off for over three months during this time.

by 1980 the forge shop went from 12 hammers that ran 3 shifts to 6 hammers that ran 1 shift. after 1980 orders were being filled from south korea and taiwan. today the forge shop has 1 hammer and 1 shift.

this economy will take years to recover and it will never recover to the level of the wages and the standard of living of the mid 1970`s.

[gcomeau]

3. So much for "green" shoots"?

Ummm... not that a loss of 532,000 more jobs is a good thing, but it's ALSO a green shoot considering this is the third consecutive month that that number has gotten smaller than in the previous month. We'd all like it to have gotten much MORE smaller, but smaller is in any amount is better than bigger and nobody sane expected it to just instantly have turned around by now.

So the article is sarcastically mocking the idea of there being green shoots in the national economic data while posting a data point that represents what it is implying doesn't exist. Which is pretty damn silly.

[lunatica]

4. Another half a million jobs this month too.

But not to worry because that's not an indicator of whether the economy is turning around. Only the stock market can tell.

:sarcasm:

[leftstreet]

5. Shovel Ready!