Tick Tock, Motherfuckers

[jefferson_dem]

Another riveting post on Andrew Sullivan's blog - ace coverage of the Iranian election aftermath.

Tick Tock, Motherfuckers

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/.a/6a00d83451c45669e201157134dedb970b-500wi

A reader writes:

So here's what we have:

They're afraid of murdering too many protesters all at once. Eventually the protesters will come to understand how to work around this.

They can't open their telecomm pipes, because the minute they do 3 million people will know how and where to gather, and the world will get to see thousands of videos showing horrific instances of state violence against its subjects.

They have to open their telecomm pipes, because their economy cannot function without telecomm.

They can't repress too much, because the cleric support base will tip against them.

Rafsanjani is waiting to find out who'll keep his financial empire running. He's going to come to conclude the current leadership's promises cannot be trusted; the country is now being run by a Fascist Islamic Mafia.

So what do they do?

They turn this into a keystone-cops gulag, and still, no matter how they try to block it, the entire world is watching, and international disapproval is growing. At some point even life in Syria or Egypt will start to look better. The leadership will become ostracized in the Muslim world, and a large and influential Islamic country like Indonesia will come out with a public condemnation. Then other nations will feel emboldened. Even worse, Ahmadinejad, and to some extent even Khamenei, will now have a difficult time making uncontrolled appearances where the crowds are not bused from towns 100 miles away; every time they show up, crowds will chant them down.

These citizens are done with their leadership. The trust has completely and irretrievably dissipated, and the fear, although present, is not sufficient, especially as it becomes more clear the army will remain on the sidelines. And the mullahs have opened all the playbooks on repression and crowd control simultaneously; it's a smorgasboard attempt at blocking the rising tide of resentment; if you'll recall, that's called the mullah's-ass-on-a-pressure-cooker-lid-to-retard-fulmination rule. If things look bad with the pressure cooker, piling more mullahs on the lid will only result in a more spectacular finish.

If the Warsaw Ghetto uprising had been broadcast to the entire world, Hitler's demise most surely would have come several years sooner. The mullahs have no way out. They are, essentially, fucked. It's now only a matter of time. And Iran's negotiations on their nuclear program? Suspended indefinitely due to lack of credibility; nobody will believe anything they say now.

TICK, TOCK, MOTHERFUCKERS...

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/06/tick-tock-motherfuckers.html

[rockymountaindem]

1. That Warsaw Ghetto line is inane

The Ghetto uprising took place in the Spring of 1943 while the whole world was already doing everything it could to get rid of Hitler and his ugly crew. It's not even remotely similar.

[TomClash]

2. Plus 13,000 were killed

And 50,000 more went off to suffer and die at Treblinka.

[jefferson_dem]

4. Point taken.

It seems a bit of a stretch but I think the point the poster is making is this -

A genuine uprising like what is happening in Iran is utterly enthralling, and the instant global exposure will likely serve to garner support for the insurgents and the "revolutionary" process. While sides were taken and clearly dug in by Spring 1943, the world (even those plugged in...in "the day") did not learn about the Warsaw uprising for weeks. Today, the information tide will be too great for Iran to plug.

At least, that's one way of looking at it...

[TomClash]

9. Prague Spring '68 might be a better analogy

Still an interesting take on the situation, though maybe too optimistic.

[DFW]

15. I followed the Prague Spring closely

Until my parents died, I even kept my copies of Pravda with Brezhnev's "letters" to the Czech
leadership as a historical reminder of perfidity--they got tossed out when the house was sold.

But I fear that this movement will meet the same fate as the Prague spring. Right will succumb
to might when the smoke clears.

Still, remember Miguel de Unamuno's words to the Fascist general yelling "Viva la muerte:"
"Vencerán, pero no convencerán." ("you will conquer, but you will not convince")

Franco's Fascists lasted forty years. The mullahs have already had thirty.

[JVS]

5. Yeah. Chronology fail on Sullivan.

[JustinL]

32. it was written by "a reader", not by Sullivan

[struggle4progress]

16. Unsurprisingly. Sullivan is a nitwit. In 2000, he was supporting Bush and calling Cheney "sexy."

In 2003, he was hyperventilating in favor of the Iraq war. There's not the slightest reason to think his ideas about Iran have any depth whatsoever

[Hannah Bell]

35. I've been surprised how few here remember that. He didn't change his position until very late in

the Bush admin.

New Republic = spook.

[boppers]

34. The world was not blogging about Warsaw, tweeting about Warsaw, Facebooking about Warsaw.

That's the difference, the thing that is unifying political spectrums all over the globe. We're watching it in real time, and not having it filtered by media.

[ThomWV]

3. It was clear from the speech yesterday morning that something like this was the case

I was lucky in that I woke up very early (Pre Washington Journal) and got to hear most of the Supreme Leader's speech. You know what he was doing? He was encouraging the religious finatics to go out and do battle with the crowds of protestors with the hint that the forces of the military was right behind them. But it was equally clear that if the he thought the military would back him up he wouldn't be out there inciting a riot. In short the Theocracy is bankrupt.

[The Magistrate]

7. An Excellent Point, Sir

It is not clear that the 'Supreme Leader' can count on the loyalty of his military in this crisis, and that is generally the decisive factor in these situations.

[ThomWV]

8. I was surprised no news pundit echoed that assessment - maybe they didn't listen

Really, this isn't an assessment I made after reading everyone Else's opinion of excerpts of the speech. It was about 15 minutes into watching it and trying to pay very close attention to every word the translator said (very odd translation I thought) and I was sort of talking to myself, saying "what in hell is he doing?" He was something between a Klan meeting and one of those pre-war Nazi scripted mass meetings. All I could think was he was attempting to use the real zealots to duplicate a "night of broke glass". He said things like, 'soon we will be visiting them (very omnious)' or similar threats - and then I knew, if he actually had any power he would be using it right that moment, but without his audience of fools he had nothing.

[janx]

6. I've been following Sullivan all day today.

He is to be commended for his wide and constant coverage of the situation in Iran. Once he said he had to take a break to get something to eat, but he was blogging again something like 15 minutes later.

[lame54]

10. The Ghandi effect - it's their best shot

[arcadian]

11. The Atlantic printed "TICK TOCK MOTHERFUCKERS"?

I guess they have gotten a more edgy since I last read them.

[JustinL]

33. does Sullivan's blog appear in the print edition?

[Kablooie]

12. Actually I predict just another Tienanmen incident. "Nice try but no cigar".

[DFW]

14. I have the same fear

I hope we're both wrong.

[elmaji]

13. Excellent Article!

[Party Person]

17. I thought this was a democratic website

I'm surprised there are so many jingoistic posters here. A little bit of twittering and everyone is all hyped up like its 1979 with the hostage situation. Bomb bomb bomb bomb Iran

[Bluenorthwest]

18. I've not seen one single DU poster call for the bombing of Iran

No, not one. John McCain, Republican sang a whole song about it that he thought was dang funny, and Goopers all over the Hill are frothing off in a manner that makes it clear why they are no longer trusted on National Security issues in the slightest.

[Party Person]

19. It was hyperbole on my part

But I can't believe I was criticized for standing up for Paul Craig Roberts on anohter thread and someone here is quoting Sullivan and no one says anything. Sullivan is a joke, he doesn't know what he believes from one day to the next.

[Kaleko]

20. A total misrepresentation of the facts.

I can only speculate why anyone would make such claims.

[bhikkhu]

21. The drums of war always sound the same

I don't have any idea what will happen in Iran, though its clear things are pretty messed up and there is some criminal behavior on the part of the leadership. Very often things calm down, crimes get punished, and a government rights itself to become again representative of its people's interests. Other times things devolve and millions die. Not that DU has much of an impact in Iran, but what are we hoping for here?

[Kaleko]

24. I think it's safe to say that most of the mentally stable DUers

are simply hoping for an incremental move towards a more open society where men and women are equally empowered to join the global community if they desire to do so.

Implementation of basic human rights, really.

[bhikkhu]

31. I hope so

I keep getting flashbacks to the run-up to the Iraq war though...

[Life Long Dem]

22. And the propaganda is flowing good

They want so much to be "war mongers" that their making up stories. Mousavi they say is a bad guy, yet this same guy was a member of the 1979 Democratic movement. Go figure.

[Party Person]

23. Unleash the dogs of war!

I remember 1979, and everyone was whipped up into an insane jingoistic fever over the hostage crisis! Even at that age I knew people had gone temporarily insane. Then it happened again in the first Gulf War, and then the second. Now war fever is taking over DU. People never learn.

[Odin2005]

27. I see the knee-jerk BS of the Ahmadinejad-n-Chavez lovers is flowing good.

Yeah, I get it, you think the US in inherently evil and is the cause of all evil in the world. Maoist Underground is down the street, you can talk about "evil AmeriKKKa" all you want, there.

[Life Long Dem]

29. As McCain would ask

"When will the US send an air message to Tehran." and then he'll start singing... "You know that old Beach Boys song, bomb Iran? Bomb bomb bomb, anyway..." Quote, unquote.

And this is how war mongers behave. Oh and also to tell the revolutionist they will lose. Bunch of idiots listening to this propaganda.

Now the media knows it's out and are trying to paint a losing battle.

[Odin2005]

30. I'm no "war-monger".

[Hannah Bell]

36. and then he joined the ayatollah's gov't & killed people. go figure.

[Ikonoklast]

25. The mullahs have reverted to the tactics of repression

practiced by the Shah that they so despised.

"Be careful you do not become the thing you fear the most."

Too late.

[LatteLibertine]

26. A Tyrant

is nothing without flunkies. One man can not oppress a nation by himself. He needs stooges.

Hopefully, more and more people will continue to wake up in Iran.

Eventually the status quo will likely find themselves well out numbered. It is possible that even some thugs that are being well compensated to do what they do will wake up too.

IMO authority should always be measured and questioned. When you violate the trust and humanity of the people said authority is no longer legitimate.

[Odin2005]

28. The point of no return has come and gone.