My Prediction of the Sotomayor Full Senate Vote Tally w/Analysis

[Tx4obama]

My prediction is if Byrd and Kennedy do not show up then Judge Sonia Sotomayor will get 69 votes, and if either Byrd or Kennedy (I doubt both will be able to make it) does surprise us with their presence then the number of votes will be 70.

Full analysis can be found on the following link: http://www.demconwatchblog.com/diary/2024/predictions-sotomayor-vote-count

I would be very appreciative to know what vote total ya'll are predicting.

DCW is tracking the 'publicly stated' preferences of the senators, which can be found in the link within the above link.

I haven't had this much fun since last year when we were tracking the super-delegates and the electoral votes ;)

http://www.demconwatchblog.com/diary/2024/predictions-sotomayor-vote-count

p.s. Has anyone seen another website other than DCW that is tracking the projected Sotomayor senate vote count?

[Buzz Clik]

1. Lugar announced he will again be voting for her.

[Tx4obama]

3. Yep.

Lugar, Martinez, and Snowe are the three republicans that announced on Friday that they will be voting 'yes'.
There are six republicans that we know that have said they will vote 'no'.
The full list is over there on the DCW link.

[WI_DEM]

2. very sound analysis

[jclincali]

4. I agree with your analysis. Maybe even a few more Repub votes.

But I do have to ask, why Kennedy & Byrd don't resign for the good of the party and country?

[Tx4obama]

6. Well...

considering that Byrd and Kennedy (in the order) have the most seniority in the Senate I am sure it would be very hard for them to step forward and resign.

Which repubs do you think would vote 'yes' other than the ones that I listed in the 'full analysis' ?

[Bandit]

5. I predict 17 Republicans vote for confirmation

They have already said as much. It hasn't yet been decided by the Republicans who those seventeen will be but they know if they don't show a substantial showing they will lose the Latino vote entirely. They have crunched the numbers and will have 23 votes against her to sooth their racist base but still have almost half vote for her to show they aren't completely against people of other color even though anyone with even half a brain knows that isn't even close to the truth.