"Whisper it softly, but Texas looks set to become a Democratic state"

[Ilsa]

The red and the blue
Jul 9th 2009
From The Economist print edition

Whisper it softly, but Texas looks set to become a Democratic state

THE elected sheriff of Dallas County is a lesbian Latina. The leading candidates to become mayor of Houston in November include a black man and a gay white woman. The speaker of the House of Representatives is the first Jew to hold the job in 164 years of statehood and only the second speaker to be elected from an urban district in modern times. In this year’s legislative session, bills to compel women to undergo an ultrasound examination before having an abortion (to bring home to them what they are about to do) and to allow the carrying of guns on campus both fell by the wayside; a bill to increase compensation for people wrongly convicted sailed through. Lakewood, in Houston, the biggest church not just in Texas but in America, claims to welcome gays. As Dorothy in “The Wizard of Oz” might have said, we’re not in Texas any more.

SNIP

With no prospect of a local son to vote for in future elections (a Bush has been on the ballot paper for six of the past eight presidential votes), the Republicans have lost one big advantage. In the 2008 election the Democrats did much better all over the state. They won the presidential vote in all the big cities except Fort Worth (see map). They made big inroads into the Republicans’ dominance of the suburbs, where American elections are lost and won these days. Overall they took 44% of the vote, up from 38% in 2004, even though Barack Obama barely campaigned in Texas.

They secured a blocking minority, 12 seats out of 31, in the heavily gerrymandered state Senate, and almost took control of the Texas House of Representatives: the Republicans now hold it by just 76 seats to 74. The conservative speaker was promptly ousted and replaced by Joe Straus, who depended for his election on a sizeable block of Democratic votes.

The mild-mannered and charming Mr Straus has turned out to be a bipartisan and moderate figure, though he insists that he made no promises to the Democrats who backed him. But this year’s legislative session showed the Democrats flexing their muscles in the House, blocking a bill on voter identification that they said discriminated against their supporters.

The rise of the Democrats poses a dilemma for Republicans in Texas, just as it does nationally. And just as the national party seems to be lapsing into fratricide, so a vicious internal war has broken out over the governorship. Rick Perry is running for a third full term in the job, but the main challenge he faces is not from the Democrats who, oddly, have come up with a remarkably unconvincing candidate: Tom Schieffer, who used to be Mr Bush’s business partner and who is famous mainly because his brother is a TV presenter. The real rival is within, in the shape of Kay Bailey Hutchison, probably the most popular politician in the state. Mrs Hutchison has served as one of Texas’s two senators in Washington, DC, since 1993, and was last re-elected in 2006 with 62% of the vote.

SNIP

http://www.economist.com/specialreports/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13938887

[Liberal_in_LA]

1. yay

[LiberalAndProud]

2. psst. your secret's safe with me.

:bounce:

[SpiralHawk]

3. "I believe I can claim credit. Smirk." - xCommander AWOL (R)

[SpiralHawk]

4. "I helped, too. Sneer." - xVP Dickie 'Five-Military-Deferments' Cheney (R)

[Skittles]

5. it ain't as red as too many people think

I saw plenty of Obama signs in the snooty red town where I live

Heck, on election night I walked to go mail something at midnight - a party was in progress on an apartment balcony with one of those signs - I gave 'em the thumbs-up and they erupted in cheers :D

[EndersDame]

9. There are still a bunch of Obama bumper stickers in Wacko Texas

[Skittles]

12. I saw that last time I drove to Austin

I stopped off in Waco because my AC was just not keeping up with the 104 degree temps - saw a few Obama stickers and thought, now THIS is progress :D

Hey, tell me the good places to eat in Waco; I make quite a few trips to Austin.

[BlueGirlRedState]

32. Waco's holding on

I've still got my Obama sticker on!

[applegrove]

6. Karl Rove just managed a temporary flip to the dark side in Texas. They were

really Democrats all the time. They just got manipulated for a bit. Now that they are left alone their truths shine through. And they are Dem. It must feel like they are comming up for air.

[charlie]

7. The Republi-conning of Texas happened long before Rove

If Texas goes blue, it really will be a sea change.

[applegrove]

13. I thought that Texas used to vote for a Dem Governor?

[charlie]

16. We've had them mixed

for the past 30 years, solid Republican in the 15 since Ann Richards. But Texas drifted hard Republican long ago.

[applegrove]

18. Didn't know Texas was hard republican. Even better news if they are going Dem.

That holds out hope for other parts of the USA. But I'd read that Karl Rove flipped two dem state politicians and that his how * got to the governorship.

[charlie]

19. Gramm, Armey, DeLay, Dubya...

We provided some the meanest ideologues of the ascendant Republican Right. And we still haven't gone for anyone but the Republican for president since Reagan, a 30-year streak. That looks to be changing though, if we're lucky.

[Lady Effingbroke]

17. Texas has had many dem governors.

List of Governors of Texas

[DainBramaged]

8. Austin is as Blue as New Jersey

[Lady Effingbroke]

14. All of the major cities are blue.

[DainBramaged]

15. My beloved ex is Austin till early September and will be home till January

the heat is good for her disability,and she needs the warmth of winter there, but she misses home.

[EndersDame]

23. And I am Moving back there in a couple of weeks!

[saltpoint]

10. If Texas has more Democrats, that's splendid news.

Let's give that lone star a blue tint.

[charlie]

11. Molly should've lived to see this, kinda sad

Bill Moyers is around to see it, though. And that's really good.

[bluestateguy]

20. I don't know. I still remember the much vaunted "Dream Team" in 2002

And every single one of them lost. Every single last damn one of them. Most of the elections were not even close.

In those West Texas ranching counties Democrats get absolutely blasted in election after election.

Maybe someday, but not anytime soon.

[MisterP]

21. as in Hightower Dems or Mona Charen Dems? we have plenty enough of the latter n/t

[Iggo]

22. Welcome back, Texas.

Love,

California.

[sonias]

27. Well thank you

It's nice to have a warm welcome. We're not completely back but the tipping point has been reached. We're hurrying as fast as we can.

:hi:

Sonia

[Blue_In_AK]

24. Interestingly, Alaska may be poised to go Democratic in 2010

as well. http://www.themudflats.net/2009/07/19/palin-hands-alaska-to-the-dems/

The soon-to-be official resignation of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) could hand Democrats a legitimate pickup opportunity, according to a recent poll in the Last Frontier obtained by the Fix. The survey, which was conducted by Global Strategy Group, showed Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell (R) at 41 percent to former state Sen. Ethan Berkowitz’s (D) 40 percent — a statistical dead heat. Democrats held the Alaska governorship from 1994 until 2002 as Gov. Tony Knowles (D) benefited from a fractured Republican party and serious independent candidates. As for those who argued that Palin decided to leave office for fear she would lose in 2010, this poll, which was in the field from June 14-18 suggests otherwise. Palin led Berkowitz 56 percent to 36 percent in a hypothetical general election matchup and carried a solid 56 percent/35 percent favorable to unfavorable score.

So, what we’ve got here is a statistical dead heat between the guy that Sarah Palin is leaving at the helm, and a progressive Democrat who hasn’t even said they are running yet. Interesting.

[argyl]

25. Texas,my,Texas.Chalk up 34 EV's for the blue. Trivia:in 1976,Texas was the westernmost

state(excepting Hawaii)to go to Carter. With the gains made in the Mountain West and the South in 2008 the GOP must be really starting to feel hemmed in.

Those 34 EV's aren't in the bank yet but a lot of blue collar guys I know and work with voted Obama in 2008. They knew how badly Bush screwed this country and had had enough of the GOP swill. And the word I get from my nephews in Plano,whose ages range from 13 to 26,is that all their friends love Obama and just despised Bush. Two of 'em did vote Obama. The other two weren't old enough but one will be in 2012.

[derby378]

26. The guns-on-campus bill died because of Voter ID, not Democrats who opposed the bill

The Republicans spent so much time pushing that stupid Voter ID bill that the guns-on-campus bill, along with many other bills that would have helped Texans in a very real and tangible way, were sacrificed under the heading of "collateral damage."

[Enrique]

28. Go back to Texas, Pinko!

:toast:

[KamaAina]

29. But, but, but what are all the Texas-bashers here going to do then?

:cry:

:sarcasm:

[EndersDame]

33. My thoughts exactly

[PretzelWarrior]

30. yeah. I read that issue. It also compared Texas and California

Texas is catching up to California as an economic dynamo, and that may well be why it is turning blue. More people moving in from out of state for high tech jobs, etc. and now outnumbering the all hat and no cattle typical conservative flops in the Lone Star State.

[TexasObserver]

31. Most people don't understand how Texas went GOP to begin with.

Texas has always has a Democratic party that tilted right, with a healthy dose of progressives and liberals a strong, but minority position in the party. Texas has far too many voters who are easily driven by social issues, and they can be moved into the GOP column by their pleas to racism, jingoism, sexism, and homophobia. Throw in god and guns, and it's a witches' brew of GOP tactics to pick off the rural voters who once voted Democratic.

In the cities, Texas saw migrations from the North into the state in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, and many of those moving into the tech rich jobs were Northern Republicans. They tend to be more "economic" Republicans who don't embrace the GOP social agenda, but do embrace the GOP economic schemes.

The combination of rural Dems being moved by social issues and transplants supporting the GOP for economic reasons created a balance of power in favor of the GOP, and George W. Bush was the beneficiary of that movement.

Rural former Democrats remain a problem, and it's mainly because of race. However, many of those city folks who have generally voted GOP are not happy with their change of fortunes. So that helps Dems in one way. Growth of the Hispanic population is another way we've been helped.

Texas is ripe for some Dem victories, after a long, dry spell of 15 years.

[Jakes Progress]

37. It would be nice,

but I think you are more right than you know about the god and guns stuff. Texas is a microcosm of how the republicans play to the lowest parts of people's nature. Fear and Hatred are powerful emotions.

Speaking of the northerners who moved here, I remember one of the Texas teachers at a conference telling a cabbie that she was surprised at how polite the people in Pittsburgh were, that she had had problems with the "yankees" that had moved to Texas. The cabbie didn't even pause - "That's because we sent all the assholes down there; we kept the good guys." Maybe they purged their state of republicans.

(Please neo-Texas Democrats. Don't jump on me. It's just an anecdote.)

[HOLOS]

34. yes!

[Jakes Progress]

35. Look up in the sky.

It's a bird. It's a plane. No, it's pigs flying everywhere.

[sutz12]

36. Well, it might be a pipe dream..

But the Texas EVs going blue would solidify the Dem majority, hopefully for a while.

:thumbsup: