If you think the GOP is dead or dying, you're deluding yourself.

[cali]

We live in a binary system. It's essentially either repub or dem. that's what it comes down to. Voters get sick of repubs, they vote dem. They get sick of dems, they vote repub. Not everyone, obviously, but enough in the mushy middle to change the outcome of elections. Now some here believe that every election won by the rebubs is actually stolen. I believe enough people are, well, sheep, and those are the folks that meander from party to party.

I'd bet anything that repubs will make significant gains in the 2010 Congressional elections.

[elocs]

1. I've thought this for a long time. Democrats celebrate the death of the Republican Party

to their own peril. Get too smug and overconfident and Dems will find themselves on the outside looking in again. Republicans are not feckless and with the help of some Blue Dog Dems they seem to be doing a good job of stymieing healthcare reform.

[H2O Man]

2. I tend to agree.

I'd add to the list of reasons why the fact that the elected officials in Washington, DC, are a single class-based party, with very few exceptions. We see definite proof of that today: the reason the "democrats" are unwilling (as opposed to unable) to make decisions that benefit the middle- and lower economic classes is because they are as much lap-dogs for the wealthy powers that be as republicans. As long as we look to them for "progress," we will continue to be stuck in the same shell game.

[dkf]

3. I have a feeling healthcare will doom us.

I'm thinking the way it will come out, health insurance will just get more bloated and expensive with pretty insignificant benefits as insurance simply does not equal health care. Frankly, I think that having insurance gives a false sense of security which gets us to go to the doctor and may or may not turn out to be all we need to keep us from bankruptcy.

I hope I'm wrong, but I doubt it.

[Echo In Light]

7. Only because the "oppositional" party intentionally didn't create huge momentum w/the public

...and instead meandered, talked from both sides of mouth, quickly and constantly obliged and obeyed corporate interests over the people's, etc. The sort of tact one would expect a phony opposition party to take.

[CrispyQ]

19. Another DUer made the point

that the reason so many people are happy with their private insurance is because it's never been tested. They've made minimal claims over the years & have never been in a true crisis situation where the blood sucking reveals itself. That contributes to the false sense of security so many have simply because they have insurance.

[TreasonousBastard]

4. After Nixon's demise, the Republicans lost everything and...

couldn't even pay the rent on their DC headquarters.

Then look what happened.

[liberal N proud]

5. The GOP attack dogs are just sharpening their teeth

They will return with an even more vicious plan for America than the last 8 years.

Why DO they hate America?

[SeriousEbony]

6. I believe you are correct

And cap -n- trade passing would just about insure it.

[ixion]

8. spot on, cali

k'd and r'd...

[Peacetrain]

9. We have made huge gains two elections in a row.. which is quite unusual

in itself. Just goes to show how badly the republicans mucked it up.. I do not know about significant gains, but I am looking for them to gain ground. To lose more than they 3 elections in a row.. well ..that would almost be a death knell for them

[Echo In Light]

10. I maintain the Right will *again* rely on a "terror" attack to scare-up support

As it is now there isn't nearly enough people to 'support' their party, but their party just happens to represent centralized, corporate power, which isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

[WeDidIt]

11. The GOP could die

It's currently moving into a regional minority status. If it doesn't pull out of it, it could go the way of the Federalists.

It definitely could happen if things keep going the way they are.

If that should happen, the Democratic PArty will split in two shortly after, just like the Democratic-Republican party split into two factions (Jacksonians and the Adams Faction).

[zipplewrath]

16. In name only

Technically, there will always be a GOP. The existence of a structure is just to attractive for anyone to ignore. It's really about who runs it that will change. I've seen it before, in both parties, and the GOP will find new leaders. The dems went through about a decade of going from a relatively racist filled organization to LBJ, then they even threw him out. I've seen the GOP go from being roughly "Rockefeller republicans" which included Mitt Romney's father, and William Millikan, to the socially conservative party we saw under Bush II.

The GOP will recover from their current situation, and one can almost see right now how it will go. The loony right, the birthers and most of the nutty "old white guys" will cease to be the "base" of the party. They'll go back to complaining about the UN and probably all join the John Birch Society again. The democrats though are now a "split party" of relatively moderate DLC folks, and some hard core progressives. The progressives are still pissed that Gore wasn't president. The DLC crowd still thinks they are the "only way" and that the progressives are just a bunch of Code Pink nutballs. A split is coming and I suspect it will be the DLC'ers heading off to rebuild the GOP under their new corporate leaning leadership. Which strangely will put them back into their "Rockefeller Republican" position that they were at the end of the '50s and beginning of the '60s. It will probably take 10 - 15 years, but just watch, you'll have "former prominent" democrats endorsing a GOP candidate and complaining that the "party left them".

[CrispyQ]

20. I think that is a spot on assessment of what is likely to happen.

The true conservatives will join ranks with the DLC/Blue Dogs & the progressives will have to form their own party.

[sendero]

12. Another rare occasion....

.... I agree with you. Nobody really likes either party, almost everyone understands that Washington is bought.

So, the vote for the "lesser of two evils".

In a couple of years, it will be the economy, stupid that determines our next president. No matter what else Obama does, if we are not in a meaningful recovery that people actually feel, we will have a Rep president and congress in 2012, whether they run an Eisenhower or a Palin.

[ThomWV]

13. I'd take your bet for 2010, but I wouldn't touch it for 2012

First off I think you are right in your observation that we haven't put the devil's in his grave but I don't think the Republicans will see a significant rebound next year - I think it will be 3 years form now. Even someone with brain-substance as substantial as grits will take some time to drift to the dark side.

I will take your prediction one step farther if you like (or not) with this. I think the Republican who emerges as their Party's savior will be a lot more like Dwight than like Newt. Don't rule out Collin (or worse yet, Petraeus*) just yet.

* Republican Presidential Candidate, 2012 or 2016.

[Prism]

14. The short-term memory of it all

Was it only 2004 when major media publications and conservative engines were discussing the permanent death of the Democratic Party? "9/11 changed everything! Now, the Democratic Party will die."

Until it didn't.

So with the Republicans. They're the laughing stock now, much as the Left was blithely dismissed after 9/11. But winds change, tides shift, politics always swings about, and the Republicans will be in power again before we know it.

That's why it is so important that Democrats get the vital stuff right the first time around.

We have no assurance there will be a second.

[Orsino]

15. That's right, Democrats.

Your majority will last exactly as long as you appear to be fixing the status quo.

Water down all your legislation, fail to fix Teh Suck, allow more families to fall into poverty, and you will be replaced by Republicans.

[mmonk]

17. Not with the Blue Dogs and "centrists" covering their backs.

[mikehiggins]

18. Its like a fantasy novel

Right now the GOPers are united because they have no choice. It is quite possible for them to lose EVERYTHING and they find themselves in the position of cornered rats (oddly appropriate). They have to attack on all fronts and all issues because they have no alternative. IMHO that is why we have the birthers and all the other crap going on (tea parties, town hall disruptions, etc et al) at the same time weak spokespeople like Boner and the others spew obvious (to us at least) lies at every opportunity they get.

And, of course, many Dems do not want to see them collapse because in the absence of the foaming mouth opposition there is nobody to blame for the failures coming down the pike but themselves.

Washington, like Albany, is actually a symbiotic relationship at bottom. Expect to see the Dems make crucial "errors" in months to come that will weaken our hand and bring the GOPers much needed openings to reestablish themselves as a "legitimate" party, backed by those elements of the media who are deathly afraid of things like "fairness" and so on.

Anybody got any figures describing the relative frequency of Dem/Progressive talking heads on the screen as opposed to the GOPukes?

Maybe everyone on the left ought to register as a GOPer and take over that party in toto. That's the model the right wing followed across the nation, from school boards to congressional seats and it seems to work.

Just remember the GOPuke slogan: check the truth at the front door.

[BolivarianHero]

21. I don't necessarily agree...

The GOP could very well die in its current form or we may see an ideological re-aligning of both major parties (similar to what happeend beginning with the Great Depression and stretching into the 1970s), but there will be a centre-right and/or fundamentalist party that continus to exist in some form.

Getting rid of that that nasty brand conservatism would be like purging Saudi Arabia of Wahabi fascism.

[Odin2005]

22. The GOP's future depends on the Blue Dogs and the Democratic party leadership.

Either the Blue Dogs will jump parties or the Democratic Party will split into a liberal party and a new conservative party.

[WI_DEM]

23. I think they might too with the old tax and spend argument. I bet indies will swing to the GOP in

2010.

[tridim]

24. I think their death spiral will continue because they've never had to deal with the Internets.

Or at least at the level it has risen to as a communications medium. Big lies never go unchecked these days as they have in the past.

If they only had Faux News, sans fact-check they'd be sitting pretty.

[endarkenment]

25. If this version of the GOP returns to power we are totally fucked.

One result of the McCain debacle has been the transformation of the Republican Party into a bizarre regional far right radical-religious-theocratic political organization. If this version succeeds it regaining power we are in far more trouble than we were January 2001.

[LynneSin]

26. Everything works in cycles

for us to think we're safe is the moment we'll see a surge in republican voting trends

:scared:

[Echo In Light]

28. Pride goeth before the fall. Although I more so align that w/Western civilization in general.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

27. "All politics is local." Tip O'Neill The voters are better at voting out than voting in.

Obama is president because Bush made a shit salad out everything.

If the repugs make a comeback it will be because the Democrats failed.

[madinmaryland]

29. I'm waiting to see what the economy does. If the economy picks

up next year as expected, I don't see the dems losing much of anything. I also think if there is some sort of health care bill passed, it will also give momentum to the dems.

OTOH, you are right that the GOP is not dead. I just don't think their revival will happen as quickly as you think. The repubs have no message, and only the lunatic fringe is driving the party.

[Jade Fox]

30. Ordinarily, you would be right......

but our last binary cycle was unusual, and unusually extreme.

I'm talking about the Bush era, and to some degree the last 35 years since Watergate, during which the Right bought up the media on the theory that if the media was conservative, the country would be too. The problem is that theory is wrong, and we are living that untruth right now.

The Right Wing noise machine succeeded mostly in confusing people (with the help of 9/11). The Right underestimated people's commitment to Liberal values, and did not anticipate the internet. The clearest long term result of the Right Wing media monopolization is epitomized by the Birthers--a minority base of irrational people who are easily manipulated into outrage, but are hard to control.

Right now he Republicans don't get that the Bush era is over. They don't get that the American people want something different. By continuing to pander to the small base of kooks created by filling the airways with Fox News and Limbaugh wanna-bes, the GOP is solidifying itself as a fringe party. Certainly, this will change. But how and when it will change remains to be seen.

I do not think the GOP will make significant gains in 2010. I think the pendulum swing will take longer due to the extreme foolishness and disorganization of the current GOP.

[LeftishBrit]

31. Well, I hope you're wrong, but there are precedents...

In 1993, the Canadian Conservatives met electoral disaster, with all but TWO MPs losing their seats! Now, they are the ruling party again.

In 1997, the British Tories were crushed; they lost the subsequent two elections badly. But they have resurfaced, and short of a miracle or an unexpected scandal, will probably win the next election.

However, there's another sort of precedent, from Europe and elsewhere. Once a country has introduced universal health-care, this is almost never revoked by subsequent governments even when the party changes (though it may be weakened and underfunded, as it was by Thatcher here). The public will generally not stand for that. So IF the Democrats last in power long enough to introduce universal healthcare, it will be very difficult for even a future Republican government to remove it.