Afghanistan Election Prediction Thread

[tekisui]

Afghanistan will be holding nationwide elections one week from tomorrow, on the 20th of August. Hamid Karzai is widely expected to win re-election, but he is in the untenable position of on not likely reaching the 50+% to avoid a run-off vote. If he were to exceed 50%, the opposition would not trust the result, and claim foul. If he doesn't reach 50% in the first vote, the run-off vote could be put off until October.

This would lead Afghanistan into two possible months of ethnic divisions. Karzai is working hard making deals with tribal leaders, possibly abusing his position and state funds to create a perception of rising in the polls. He was at 35% just a couple weeks ago, one poll has him as high as 45% recently.

His closest competetor Abdullah Abdullah, Karzai's former foreign minister, is polling at 20%. Ramazan Bashardost, a former planning minister, and Ashraf Ghani(with James Carville as a political strategist) , a former finance minister, are expected to come third and fourth at. three and seven per cent of the vote respectively. All of these numbers came from a US-funded poll.

The Taliban have vowed to disrupt the poll with roadblocks and threats of violence. They have taken over municipal buildings south of Kabul, and are attempting to move closer. They have also told people living in regions they control to not participate.

It has also been reported that the US may try to install a 'CEO' in Afghanistan to work directly under Karzai, who is corrupt and not trusted.

Will the elections take place? Will violence and mistrust of Karzai keep most voters home? Will the election be rigged? Will Karzai win by the magically narrow margin of 51% or 52%? Will there be a run-off election?