It is a meaningless question, unless one sets the price for "buying into" Medicare.
Medicare is funded partly through a payroll tax of 2.9% (no wage limit), partly through premiums, and partly through payments from the general fund, i.e., income tax. It is also funded very significantly by excess payments from the uninsured and the private insurance companies - because Medicare payments are set by a board, and in many case are less than the cost of the treatment. Thus, in many cases the fees charged by hospitals and doctors are set higher for everyone else to cover the costs of treating Medicare patients.
If you are wondering what it would cost to "buy into Medicare", the answer is something like a 20% payroll tax plus the $100 premium, and that only gets you 80% reimbursement. We would have also have to hike income tax significantly on the top 30% of wage-earning households, plus impose additional income tax on median and higher income households (household AGI over 50K).
I can absolutely promise you that if most of the population were currently covered by Medicare, many patients would have little or no access to doctors, because the doctors wouldn't be able to provide the services for the schedule payments. Therefore, if everyone "bought into" Medicare, we would have to significantly raise schedule payments, which accounts for part of that 20% wage tax.
I don't think the idea of making Medicare open to all is a bad one, but we must be realistic about what it would cost. We would also have to somehow curtail the malpractice lawsuits and unfunded treatment for illegal aliens. Doing so (and imposing a high wage tax would take care of the unfunded illegal care problem) would cut that payroll tax down to 18% or so although as our population ages it would have to rise rapidly. But for everything except hospital insurance, the general fund currently pays over 3/4s of the cost - the rest comes from premiums. So general fund revenue would have to be greatly increased from a new payroll tax or a much higher income tax.
So the question Josh Marshall should have asked is "Would you agree to pay a 20% wage tax plus $100 per person monthly premium for 80% insurance coverage for doctor and hospital costs?"
If people want the Medigap policies, they will have to pay $100s more a month for them, plus income tax would have to be raised on everyone across the board. If people also want drug coverage, they would have to pay another monthly fee plus income tax would have to be raised again, across the board.
From what I have read on this board, many would not answer yes to the question if the costs were included. I am also aware that many could not pay for it. In many ways Congress is trapped by unrealistic public conceptions of what healthcare can cost.
I personally believe that we do need major changes in our health care system, but people have to understand that we must pay for the coverage. Pretend insurance is no insurance at all.
One fallacy that is almost universally accepted on this board are that Medicare is solvent. It is not. We will be both raising current Medicare taxes and cutting benefits to take care of the retirees as things stand. If we admit more people to Medicare, the costs will rise massively again. If you want to understand Medicare's current problems, I recommend the American Academy of Actuaries' report:
http://www.actuary.org/pdf/medicare/trustees_09.pdfThe hospital insurance fund has been in deficit since 2005. In 2008, total Medicare funding from general revenue (think income tax) was 166 billion, but that includes SMI (parts B & D). As the number of persons covered under Medicare rises, that number will gallop up even if medical costs completely stopped rising. Over the next 10 years, the total gap between revenues coming into Medicare and benefits being paid out is estimated to be 2.5 trillion dollars, or about 250 billion a year. But that is only the cost to cover about 1/5th of the population. If you want to cover the whole population, you are looking at more like 10 trillion. Seriously. That money must be raised somehow, and the easiest way is with a payroll tax.
Currently (in 2009), Social Security plus Medicare cost about 1/2 of the revenue (taxes and fees) received by the federal government. That will rapidly rise over the next decade as more people retire.