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Edited on Tue Sep-01-09 01:45 PM by hlthe2b
As a public health official who has been dealing with this sent last May, was not able to take any time off for summer vacation because of the need to plan and have had Thanksgiving and Christmas travel plans, canceled, I have NO REASON TO LIE TO YOU.
HERE ARE THE FACTS:
H1N1 novel swine flu did not go away and yes, with coming Fall and return to school, it was fully expected to increase in spread. It will be focal in nature at first, affecting some locales more so than others. Underscoring that fact is that across NY, the increase is largely in NYC, as might be expected, given the population numbers and density.
Both national and international surveillance of influenza subtypes is undergoing, based on submitted specimens from throughout the country and around the world. Currently, of those having CONFIRMED influenza, type A, 99% have been H1N1 novel ("Swine") by CDC. Similar proportional rates internationally.
During week 33 (August 16-22, 2009), influenza activity remained stable or continued to decline in most areas of the U.S. However, activity appears to be increasing in the Southeast. A total of 8,843 hospitalizations and 556 deaths associated with 2009 influenza A (H1N1) viruses have been reported to CDC an increase from 7,983 hospitalizations and 522 deaths from the prior week. 99% of all subtyped influenza A viruses being reported to CDC were 2009 influenza A (H1N1) viruses.
In answer to your question, though NOT ALL cases are PCR-confirmed with H1N1 novel ("swine"). That doesn't mean they are NOT likely to be due to this virus, but simply because confirmatory SUBTYPE testing resources are being prioritized to those hospitalized, for the purposes of sentinel physician surveillance systems, and for major outbreak control purposes, rather than to identify every individual case. You can be sure, that for every one of these confirmed cases, there are 3-10 less severe cases that will not be confirmed, as is always the case with influenza viruses, including seasonal strains. Most of these are being tested for influenza A, however and given that 99% of circulating influenza A isolates right now ARE H1N1 novel ("swine") I think you see the likely conclusion to be drawn.
I feel compelled to do my part to clarify when possible, but lately, I feel overwhelmed by the nonsense and seriously erroneous information being dispensed as "truth" on DU in regards to H1N1 novel ("swine") flu. While there is certainly room for academic debate back and forth as to the magnitude of the pandemic over the next 8-12 months, there are other medical and public health professionals on this board, who, like me, are probably getting really, really, really fed up with all the tinfoil governmental conspiracy theorizing by those who are least informed. With all respect in the world intended, SheilaT., please don't be one of them.
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