Salon: That sound you hear is the social fabric about to snap (Real unemployment almost 20 %)

[marmar]

That sound you hear is the social fabric about to snap
The real unemployment rate is almost 20 percent. Here's what the federal government can do about the jobs crisis

By Michael Lind





Oct. 19, 2009 | According to official statistics, the unemployment rate in the United States is now 9.8 percent. But those statistics understate the severity of the jobs crisis. The official statistics do not include the 875,000 Americans who have given up looking for work, even though they want jobs. When these "marginally attached" workers and part-time workers are added to the officially unemployed, the result, according to another, broader governement measure of unemployment known as "U-6," is shocking. The United States has an unemployment rate of 17 percent.

And even this may understate the depth of the problem. By adding the 3.4 million Americans who want a job but have not looked for one in over a year, businessman, philanthropist and Obama advisor Leo Hindery Jr. infers an actual unemployment rate of 18.8 percent. In other words, nearly one in five Americans is unemployed or underemployed.

The sound you hear is the sound of the social fabric in America rotting and beginning to snap. Thanks to the unemployment insurance system adopted during the New Deal years, and thanks in part to the stimulus that the Obama administration and Congress passed earlier in the year, we do not have hordes of out-of-work Americans standing in line at soup kitchens and riding the rails from town to town. Even so, the invisible decay of America's social order is just as real as the highly visible decay of abandoned McMansions in new developments that are turning into ghost towns across the continent.

Mass unemployment has yet to spawn a wave of crime or social unrest. But those possibilities cannot be dismissed. And the desperation is real, even if it is not signaled by desperate acts. The psychological toll of prolonged unemployment is devastating on individuals who have lost their roles as breadwinners or productive, self-reliant citizens. Employers prefer not to hire people who have been unemployed for long periods -- and laid-off workers today are spending an average of 26.2 weeks without jobs, the highest average since the Great Depression. And then there are the new graduates of high schools and colleges, a lost generation whose members may be crippled throughout their careers by the lack of opportunities in their youth. ...........(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2009/10/19/jobs/

[no_hypocrisy]

1. Unemployment was underreported during the * Administration.

A lot of people simply stopped looking for work when their unemployment ran out. It was probably closer to 10% by 2008.

17% today is getting closer to Depression stats.

[Skidmore]

6. I've been unemployed for nearly 3 years and was never eligible for

unemployment benefits because I worked on a state grant for a project that was not refunded. There are lots like me who are never counted.

[karynnj]

37. I think you would be "counted" in U6

The reason I put it in quotes is that that number comes from surveys of US households - which relies on statistical sampling and because I have no knowledge beyond what I've read. I thnk people like you or new graduates, who have yet to get a job, would be included in some category here - though I hope you will find something good and be in none of these categories.

Wikipedia has a very nice summary on this:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics measures employment and unemployment (of those over 15 years of age) using two different labor force surveys<32> conducted by the United States Census Bureau (within the United States Department of Commerce) and/or the Bureau of Labor Statistics (within the United States Department of Labor) that gather employment statistics monthly. The Current Population Survey (CPS), or "Household Survey", conducts a survey based on a sample of 60,000 households. This Survey measures the unemployment rate based on the ILO definition.<33> The data are also used to calculate 5 alternate measures of unemployment as a percentage of the labor force based on different definitions noted as U1 through U6:<34>

* U1: Percentage of labor force unemployed 15 weeks or longer.
* U2: Percentage of labor force who lost jobs or completed temporary work.
* U3: Official unemployment rate per ILO definition.
* U4: U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them.
* U5: U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or "loosely attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently.
* U6: U5 + Part time workers who want to work full time, but cannot due to economic reasons.

Note: "Marginally attached workers" are added to the total labor force for unemployment rate calculation for U4, U5, and U6. The BLS revised the CPS in 1994 and among the changes the measure representing the official unemployment rate was renamed U3 instead of U5.<35>

The Current Employment Statistics survey (CES), or "Payroll Survey", conducts a survey based on a sample of 160,000 businesses and government agencies that represent 400,000 individual employers.<36> This survey measures only nonagricultural, nonsupervisory employment; thus, it does not calculate an unemployment rate, and it differs from the ILO unemployment rate definition. These two sources have different classification criteria, and usually produce differing results. Additional data are also available from the government, such as the unemployment insurance weekly claims report available from the Office of Workforce Security, within the U.S. Department of Labor Employment & Training Administration

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unemployment

Table of the various alternative measures over time since 1995 when they were introduced.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm

[conscious evolution]

14. Its still being under reported.

I was using ADP's payroll reports to get an accurate picture of the rates until they quit posting their numbers.Their numbers,despite only covering payroll services about 1 in 6 workers in the US,were much higher than what the fed's are reporting.

[waiting for hope]

2. I've been wondering about how many

of those that have been unemployed for over a year (I'll make a year in March) don't have health care because of that? Cobra is a joke - anyone that has become unemployed can't afford it unless they have a sugar mamma/daddy on the side or a butt load of savings to burn through. This is why I think the passing of a public option is crucial, even if a person becomes employed again, most finances are in arrears ... a PO would enable a person to catch up.

[reggie the dog]

17. sell drugs

or some other black market shit to get money for health insurance.

[defendandprotect]

27. And, anyone "unemployed" should be covered for free . . . MEDICARE FOR ALL --

[Christa]

32. It will be a year for my husband, come November

and no health insurance.

:scared: :scared:

We are worried out of our minds.

[ddeclue]

3. Shouldn't social fabric "rip", "rend" or "tear" instead of "snapping"?

:shrug:

[marmar]

4. In an excessively literal world, yes.

nt

[ddeclue]

8. In a world where everyone is excessively literal.....

Coming soon to a theater near you..

:rofl:

Actually not so... it would be a world where everyone is excessively metaphorical.

[eShirl]

5. not if it's a wet towel

SNAP!

[ddeclue]

7. DUZY ALERT!

:spank:

[slay]

10. Don't forget to bring a towel!!

[Withywindle]

20. I know where my towel is.

And yet, I'm still panicking!

[slay]

21. Mine's blocking that gap between the bottom of my door and the floor

just as it should be. :evilgrin:

"I wouldn't burn incense. That might set off red-flags. I'd just cover the bottom and top of the door with a towel & use Ozium throughout my session" -- http://www.marijuana.com/vaporizers/107547-vaping-dorm.html

[slay]

9. "Actual unemployment rate of 18.8 percent.." - wow

This is bad. Uh-huh. Like really, really bad. But what did we expect - we outsourced everything, shipped all our jobs overseas, and let the rich run wild in this country without paying even close to their fair share. These rich fuckers don't care about us - we are one of two things to them - workers, or consumers. THIS is what happens when right-wing fuckheads run things for soooo many years. 8 years under Reagan (really bush sr), then 4 more under ex-CIA head Bush sr, 8 under Clinton who, while better, gave us DADT and that most horrible of job loss creators - NAFTA, then another 8 years under idiot boy and Cheney. No wonder the country is so fucked up. :(

[reggie the dog]

18. could not agree more

[truedelphi]

25. Like another DU'er wisely stated today:

It has been forty years since we last had a liberal Administration.

[defendandprotect]

28. True . . . and it was taken away with political violence, rw propaganda and filthy tricks ...

[slay]

29. Well then, in my opinion, it's about time

we had another! Kucinich, Grayson, Bernie Sanders.. the underpinnings are there - now if people could just be convinced to get on board. sadly i have to agree with the earlier poster that RW propaganda is so entrenched in society and people's minds that a true liberal awakening, while exactly what we need, seems unlikely. Doh.

[truedelphi]

45. As Republicrat Obama has successfully won over people's hearts and minds.

Along with the fact that so many good and very liberal leaders have been killed off. JFK Jr., Wellstone, and others.

[slay]

49. I was just talking about how strong liberal politicians like the Kennedys and Wellstone get killed

and it ONLY seems to happen to liberals.

Read about the liberal politicians who died under mysterious circumstances here:

Was Paul Wellstone Murdered?

By Michael I. Niman, AlterNet. Posted October 28, 2002.

For our government to maintain its credibility, we need an open and acccountable independent investigation into the death of Paul Wellstone.

Paul Wellstone was the only progressive in the U.S. Senate. Mother Jones magazine once described him as, "The first 1960s radical elected to the U.S. senate." He was also the last. Since defeating incumbent Republican Rudy Boschowitz 12 years ago in a grassroots upset, Wellstone emerged as the strongest, most persistent, most articulate and most vocal Senate opponent of the Bush administration.

In a senate that is one heartbeat away from Republican control, Wellstone was more than just another Democrat. He was often the lone voice standing firm against the status-quo policies of both the Democrats and the Republicans. As such, he earned the special ire of the Bush administration and the Republican Party, who made Wellstone's defeat that party's number one priority this year.

more: http://www.alternet.org/story/14399

[truedelphi]

50. It is also of interest that while JFK Jr's plane went down

Before 9:30Pm on a Friday night, and that plane had the typical GPS tracking indicater, there was no search for the plane, until Ted Kennedy called Bill CLinton (Who was President at the time) at Seven Am the following morning, and asked that Clinton see that someone do a search.

And even then, the Powers that Be pretended that the JFK Jr plane could be anywhere, within some vast 3500 sq mile area, until around 1Pm that Saturday when they suddenly went, "Oh, like maybe we should pay attention to the signals coming from the GPS!"

This is so atypical of what would typically happen when a small plane goes down that I cannot even express how I feel. Angry? Frustrated?

Yet if you say something is not right about this, you are considered a tinfoil hat suspect.

[slay]

53. Yeah it amazes me how otherwise intelligent people will label someone

a conspiracy theorist or tin-foil hat subject just because we point out obvious logical flaws in the official government stories. Oh that damn logic - when will I learn most Americans prefer a fake invisible man in the sky judging their every move rather than you poor logic... sigh...

[truedelphi]

51. Here is to your strong sentiments

:toast:

[Karmadillo]

11. Lagging indicator. It will be down to 15% in less than a year or two or three.

nt

[Mojambo]

12. Crime is coming

The store right next to us was robbed at gunpoint last week.

This is an area that until very recently was VERY safe.

I'm just loving my closing shifts.

[conscious evolution]

15. Crime is also under reported

Just ask any cop or EMT.
I know that in Atlanta they are calling a lot of reported crimes 'unsubstiated' or are reclassifying them as less severe crimes.

[dysfunctional press]

23. time to gear up.

i've never owned a gun- but we've decided that we're going to get one now.

[Old Time Pagan]

38. If you get one

make sure you familiarize yourself with how to operate it. Out here in rural America with our population of cougars, coyotes and bears (Oh My!!) a shotgun is just as much a tool as our tractors and pickem' up trucks so we've always had them but rarely use them. That understood we take one day every quarter to review operation, make sure we remember how to load, unload, fire, and store safely the darn things.

If you can't use one of these things effectively then it's more likely to be used against you than you being able to use it to defend yourself.

Make sure you think it through very carefully before you decide to own one. It's a big responsibility to have one in your home and that needs to be taken seriously.

[dysfunctional press]

48. i used to shoot a bit as a kid...

my uncle had 100 or so wooded acres near steven's point in wisconsin, and when we'd go up there in the summer, he'd give me his .22, and pay me 50 cents a head to kill chipmunks(they'd always find their way into the cabin in winter- he hated them). btw- a .22 long round will basically turn a chipmunk inside-out.
i also went deer-unting with him a couple times- and even got used to the kick of his 30.06. and a couple of times going after pheasants as well, with a small bore shotgun(and wasting some shots trying to hit crows- they aren't at all easy).

but- i have no experience with handguns(other than a co2 pellet pistol).
i haven't decided fully whether to go with a handgun or a shotgun...
we may do one of each.

[debbierlus]

13. Thanks for posting.

[earth mom]

16. But what a great idea it was to give those trillions of dollars to the banksters!!!

It's not like that money could have been used to create green, earth friendly jobs or something.

:sarcasm:

[sabrina 1]

19. And to continue to pour money into two useless wars.

And why was there not a condition when Wall St. came begging for welfare from the taxpayers, that not one penny of that money should go to workers outside the country? I know the question was raised as the bail-outs were supposed to save the economy, put people back to work, and keep them in their homes.

But little of that has happened and big corps are still sending jobs out of the country or bringing foreign workers in. And as far as stopping foreclosures, the big banks won't even talk to people who need to renegotiate their loans and no one is forcing them to do so.

But Goldman Sachs is thriving and the Stock Market went over 10,000 so we're supposed to be happy about that.

[truedelphi]

26. I will never again vote for the candidate who receives the

Most money of all from the Wall Street firms.

[Greyhound]

22. K&R for "Family Values".

50,000,000 people effected (17% of population), millions lost everything, millions more will have little to look forward to except a kind of indentured servitude.

But thank The FSM we saved the banks!

[Demeter]

24. the FIRST Thing to Do About Unemployment Is STOP LYING ABOUT IT!

The second is to establish relief for all, and universal health care.

The third is to cut Corporate Welfare, War, religious tax break abuses and illegal faith-based funding.

The fourth is some rational WPA-type program, employing people in the public sector to do the public's work. No more for-profit privatization at inflated overhead costs.

[slay]

30. I agree with everything you said

no more status-quo business as usual crap - we need real change and the things you listed sound like an excellent start to me. If only we could get REAL change like this. :thumbsup:

[Liberty Belle]

31. It also doesn't count self-employed freelancers, whose business is way down.

Mine is down over 80% this year, same as nearly all the freelance journalists I know.

[marmar]

46. It's a bleak time for freelancers....

I do it on the side....luckily I have a day job.

[Orwellian_Ghost]

33. K&R

[The Wizard]

34. High unemployment spurs investor class.

With pressure on the job market employers can more easily find cheap labor that boosts the bottom line, at least in the short term.
In the long term the bottom line gets adjusted downward because there's less money in circulation to purchase goods and services.
Yes there is class warfare, and the wealthy have the advantage of controlling the money, thus allowing them to make the rules and break or change the rules when convenient or profitable.
We're suffering from the effects of trickle down economics imposed on us by the Bush cartel.
Cheap labor is the life blood of predatory capitalists.
Now that Wall Street banksters have had another round of treasury looting and rewarded themselves with outsized bonuses for failure, the time has come to demand a full refund. A good start would be tying some crooked Wall Street thieves to poles and have the unemployed take turns with horse whips.

[karynnj]

35. How many times did the media use the "real" unemployment rate under Bush

I do think it valuable that the real number be estimated and used when people assess the economy, but it should be done consistently. U6 is a better estimate of employment difficulties. (Especially because it includes skilled people, who failing to get a job in their field, earn money at McDonald's etc as non-management people.)

[Libertas1776]

36. Repeat After Me:

"Hey brother, can you spare a dime?"

That phrase may soon come in handy.:evilfrown:

[Craftsman]

44. Dime ain't worth much anymore.

[Tippy]

39. K&R Three unemployed in my household today...I would have to say

20% is right on....and not getting any better....

[Blue_Tires]

40. k+r

[area51]

41. Heard 20%

I don't have time to read the linked article right now, but I thought I heard that Paul Craig Roberts said that if we counted unemployment like they did when he was asst. Treasury Sec'y., unemployment would be pegged at 20%.

[bvar22]

42. You all are just whining!

Any day now, NAFTA is going to kick in and there will be plenty of jobs for Americans.
Its ONLY been 15 years.
The "Centrist" Democrats say Free Trade is GOOD for America, and I have faith in our Leadership!
Here you are using Right Wing Talking Points, ruining DU for everybody who supports Democrats!
Maybe you should go back to FR!

Whats the matter?
You didn't get your "Free Trade" Pony?
Stop whining!

[OhioChick]

43. K&R n/t

[Tab]

47. Counting those on "unemployment" is misleading

So yes, it probably is more like 20%.

How do you be unemployed and not on unemployment?

- Some people are just embarassed and won't file
- If your benefits run out, you drop off the list. UI isn't forever.
- If you get a job, you drop off the list. Note that you may be "underemployed" - formerly earning $80k/yr but now working at a restaurant for $25k/yr. Technically employed, but really not making anything like what you used to make.
- If you were an officer of a corporation you may not qualify for unemployment
- If you were an independent contractor/consultant - and there have been a lot in the last 15 years - you won't qualify for unemployment.
- If you are trying to do contracting now, even if the phone doesn't ring and you haven't had a job in months, you won't qualify for unemployment

So, if you worked for yourself (self-employed), or your benefits ran out, or you took a lesser job (underemployed), you don't qualify for the list, your financial woes aren't counted. Also if you're working for yourself while looking for a "real" job, you won't qualify either.

When they say 9.8%, I automatically assume it's really more like 15%, if not more. 20% doesn't surprise me. I'd say it's easily between 15% and 20%.

[Tom_x]

52. fixing the economy is easy

I don't see the Dems showing too much concern either.

They should have fixed the economy first. They would then have a lot of additional support which would have made health care reform easier.

By the way fixing the economy is relatively easy. Hitler took a country with something like 45% unemployment and fixed it in 2 years. Thats why he was so popular in Germany.

http://www.fourwinds10.com/siterun_data/business/currency/news.php?q=1217011692

snip

Or so it seemed. Hitler and the National Socialists, who came to power in 1933, thwarted the international banking cartel by issuing their own money. In this they took their cue from Abraham Lincoln, who funded the American Civil War with government-issued paper money called "Greenbacks." Hitler began his national credit program by devising a plan of public works. Projects earmarked for funding included flood control, repair of public buildings and private residences, and construction of new buildings, roads, bridges, canals, and port facilities. The projected cost of the various programs was fixed at one billion units of the national currency.

One billion non-inflationary bills of exchange, called Labor Treasury Certificates, were then issued against this cost. Millions of people were put to work on these projects, and the workers were paid with the Treasury Certificates. This government-issued money wasn't backed by gold, but it was backed by something of real value. It was essentially a receipt for labor and materials delivered to the government. Hitler said, "for every mark that was issued we required the equivalent of a mark's worth of work done or goods produced." The workers then spent the Certificates on other goods and services, creating more jobs for more people.

Within two years, the unemployment problem had been solved and the country was back on its feet. It had a solid, stable currency, no debt, and no inflation, at a time when millions of people in the United States and other Western countries were still out of work and living on welfare. Germany even managed to restore foreign trade, although it was denied foreign credit and was faced with an economic boycott abroad.