Things you can extrapolate from the September PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS: SEPTEMBER 2009

[AllentownJake]

On Employment

Private wage and salary disbursements decreased $11.2 billion in September, in contrast to an increase
of $10.1 billion in August. Goods-producing industries' payrolls decreased $7.8 billion, compared
with a decrease of $6.3 billion; manufacturing payrolls decreased $1.5 billion, compared with a
decrease of $4.1 billion. Services-producing industries' payrolls decreased $3.4 billion, in contrast
to an increase of $16.4 billion. Government wage and salary disbursements increased $0.2 billion
compared with an increase of $2.4 billion.

Factories making consumer goods laid workers off in September at a higher rate than in August.

Factories making non-consumer goods decreased lay offs.

The Service Industry went from job creation to job elimination

The Government hired at a lower rate than in August.



On Savings and Spending
Personal outlays -- PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments -- decreased
$48.8 billion in September, in contrast to an increase of $138.2 billion in August. PCE decreased $47.2
billion, in contrast to an increase of $139.8 billion.

Personal outlays -- PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments -- decreased
$48.8 billion in September, in contrast to an increase of $138.2 billion in August. PCE decreased $47.2
billion, in contrast to an increase of $139.8 billion.


Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $355.6 billion in September, compared with $307.0 billion in
August. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 3.3 percent in September, compared with
2.8 percent in August.

People were spending less and saving more than in August which makes sense looking at consumer confidence indexes

Inflation



PCE price index -- The price index for PCE increased 0.1 percent in September, compared with an increase of 0.3
percent in August. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1 percent, the same increase as in August.
Inflation remained steady

Summary
To summarize employment fell, consumer spending went down, consumer savings went up, inflation remained steady.

[AllentownJake]

1. Kick

[KG]

2. green shoots or poop chutes?

[AllentownJake]

3. It doesn't have production numbers

but looking at the consumer spending and saving numbers September was a leaner month than August.

It appears August pushed the positive GDP.

[TexasObserver]

4. There was a drop from August to September in those numbers.

There is a drop in the numbers you cite from August to September. I'm not sure how much of that is summer ending and students returning to school, however. August is a month for back to school spending and the last few weeks of the summer vacation.

September is the month after that, the month after school spending returns and summer vacations end. September is the month before October, which is when the run up to the fall/winter holiday season begins. I would therefore expect September to dip some, particularly this year.

The numbers for November and December will be telling. If we don't have a decent holiday season for Nov and Dec, we may be seeing a hit on the economy in January. That's when the businesses that didn't generate enough revenues during that period will either default, go under, or reorganize under a chapter.

If the recovery is derailed in January or February or 2010, we will likely see the jobs recovery pushed back even further. Good numbers for Nov and Dec mean jobs for Jan, Feb and beyond. Bad numbers mean jobs could go south until at least next summer.