Global temperature 'to rise by 6C'

[ensho]

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/europe/2009/11/20091118101059758863.html


Scientists have warned that global temperatures could rise by six degrees Celsius by the end of the century, four degrees higher than previously predicted and at a level that could wipe out species and cause widespread natural disasters.

In addition, the study by the Global Carbon Project (GCP) said on Wednesday, that the ability of the world's forests and oceans to absorb carbon emissions was declining.

-snip-

"Politicians are hiding behind each other, no one wants to step up and take the action, and what we actually need to see is political leadership by the rich countries. We need emission reductions, commitments from the the rich countries of at least 40 per cent by 2020.

-snip-

Her team of researchers also warned that the world's natural carbon absorbing "sinks" - the oceans and forests - are failing to keep up with the amount of emissions being pumped into the atmosphere.

-snip-

It added that despite the global economic downturn, emissions increased by two per cent during 2008.
-----------------------------

one tick left on the clock

[Subdivisions]

1. Not good if true....

The Greenland ice sheet will melt. The ocean conveyor belt will falter. Europe, especially Britain, will freeze. Climate patterns all over over the globe will be disrupted. And, sea level will rise to the point where ALL coastal areas will be swamped, including the entire east coast of the U.S.

[dysfunctional press]

2. our species doesn't have the wherewithal to change our behaviours in the necessary ways...

but- it should make for some exciting tv viewing in the coming decades. :woohoo:

[FarCenter]

3. That would help a lot with the heating bills

[Uncle Joe]

4. Don't make the mistake of believing you will be dead before the shit hits the fan.

The adverse effects of this global calamity will make it self known long before the end of the century, as it's already beginning to happen and will only increase in intensity unless serious, aggressive, and progressive measures are made to avert this looming catastrophe.

Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, ensho.

[The2ndWheel]

14. Beginning?

We altered environments when we hunted with sharp sticks. It's not the beginning, or the end. We're in the present of it, and have been, and will be. It's not controllable. We can't set some arbitrary number, and think we can keep it right where we need to in order to not only keep doing what we're doing(just calling it "green", and telling ourselves that we know what we're doing since we're the self-appointed stewards of the planet), but increase the level of our activity.

[Uncle Joe]

20. If we still hunted with sharp sticks, it wouldn't be controllable, but those happy, simple days

are long gone; along with humanity's minimal impact on global climate and the rest of Earth's species.

The Industrial Age only began approximately 200 years ago, to deny the still growing magnification of that impact would be to deny reality.

Considering our out-sized impact on the Earth's fragile biosphere, humanity had better wake up and declare ourselves as the Earth's stewards; behaving accordingly at least to the best of our ability, as no other species is equipped to rectify the situation, unless that species wipes out humanity in the process.

[elocs]

5. The problem is that no politician today will be alive by the end of the century,

so they won't have to answer to anybody then about the problem. For most politicians it is about the next election. Not only will they not deal with the wolf that is approaching the door, they won't even have a strategy to deal with the wolf even when it is in the room.

[lpbk2713]

6. Now is not a good time to buy ocean front property.

Not unless you want to unload it real quick for a profit.

[ddeclue]

31. Umm actually it is if you buy it in Kissimmee Florida..

:rofl:

[Deep13]

7. Is that something like 14 F?

That is really, really, really bad. That's like Thunderdome bad.

[FBaggins]

10. Closer to eleven.

But of course that would still be bad.

I seriously doubt, however, that it's anything more than rhetorical hyperbole (or the high end of a really broad range of worst-case calculations).

[Deep13]

15. Why, everything I have been reading show warming to be...

...substantially worse than originally estimated. This would not be unprecedented for the Earth. I understand in Jurassic times it was a couple dozen degrees warmer (F) than it is now.

[FBaggins]

18. It isn't a question of maximum temperature

it's a question of how little time they set before it rises that much.

Looking at another article (which I think refers to the same prediction) - they're actually predicting those six degrees if we dramatically cut carbon emissions over the next four decades. So this isn't even a "worst case" scenario... it's "likely to be worse".

I think that's unrealistic.

[Deep13]

19. What makes it unrealistic?

I don't think 6C is a lot. It only seems like a lot because it would be hard on us and other critters. If you add 6 deg. to the average global temperature expressed in deg. Kelvin, it is actually a pretty small increase. We'd be screwed, of course, but a small increase proportionally nonetheless.

[FBaggins]

21. Because we've been pumping out carbon for over a century now

and we've seen about a degree of increase (some legitimate studies say less than half that) and THAT amount is the largest increase is the most rapid in over 1,000 years.

Six to ten times as much (or more) in nine decades seems unrealistic.

On edit - For comparison, note that most estimates I've seen for the A2 scenario say 2-4 degrees by the end of the century. What's important there is that THIS scenario appeast to be a "best case" claim... that we significantly cut carbon emissions over the next four decades. The A2 scenario, OTOH, assumes that no cuts are made... that world population doubles and energy consumption increases significantly (with an ever-increasing proportion coming from coal)

[Deep13]

22. Maybe, but look at the historic facts.

Fifty years ago the West was industrialized and everyone else lived on a subsistence level. Now the whole world is becoming industrialized (except Africa). Besides, the damage is cumulative. As forests shink and the sea becomes more acidic, CO2 that might have been reabsorbed in the past now stays in the air. Plus, natural sources of green house gas become a problem as tundras release methane.

And I don't know that the warming exactly corresponds to the amount of CO2 in the air. The CO2 present now is causing the earth to become warmer. The warming would not necessarily stop if we stopped burning things.

You may be right, but this is not something that can be dismissed because of common sense or armchair science.

[Nikki Stone1]

8. OK, now this is important

K & R

[TCJ70]

9. So...I hadn't done too much looking at greenhouse emissions...

...but we could make serious strides towards putting off or lessening the damage of (I don't think we can reverse things at this point) the inevitable if we'd just get the world on track with dumping fossil fuels. The information at the EPA is pretty telling.

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/globalghg.html

Converting the current fossil fuel related jobs into alternative fuel jobs seems like a pretty good first step to me. I don't think we can completely move away from fossil fuels for certain industries, but an effort is necessary.

[The Straight Story]

11. Has it even risen before by that much? (nt)

[FBaggins]

12. No... "but"

we haven't been recording temperatures for all that long.

Even the much-debated "hockey stick" shows something closer to one degree over the last century or two.

[Nederland]

16. Yes

500 million years ago CO2 levels were up around 7000ppm (to compare, today they are pushing 400 ppm) and temperatures were about 8C higher.

[FBaggins]

17. I don't think that was quite the question

It wasn't "has it ever been that much warmer than today" - it was "have they ever risen that quickly"

[Edweird]

23. More. Much much more.

It's geology. It happens

[FBaggins]

24. Note the scale and axis labels?

That's not nine decades for the swing... it's millions of years.

So no... it's not evidence of this substantial a move over a century or less.

It also doesn't say how many degrees any of this represents.

Lastly... this has always been one of the better counter arguments to human-caused global climate change... because it demonstrates that wild swings occur without our input.

[Edweird]

25. For example, about 11,500 years ago, averaged annual temperatures on the Greenland icepack warmed by

around 8°C over 40 years, in three steps of five years (see Alley (2000), Stewart, chapter 13) - 5°C change over 30-40 yrs more common.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dansgaard-Oeschger_cycles





Notice how at the end of the last glacial period the temperature rises very rapidly?

That's in the very recent past, geologically speaking. Far more abrupt and dramatic changes have occurred in the bigger picture.

Just to be clear: 8"c/40 years > 6"c/100 years.

[FBaggins]

26. Closer... but still no cigar (IMO of course)

There's a massive difference between local temperatures and global ones. You'll note that the record from the other hemisphere was quite different.

Notice how at the end of the last glacial period the temperature rises very rapidly?

No. The chart isn't labeled well enough (was there more data somewhere else?). But the scale says we're talking about tenths of a degree... not multiple degrees.

[Edweird]

27. Well, it's geology, it's science, and it's not a secret. It's all available if you ever get curious.

CO2 levels rise and fall, the temperature fluctuates wildly, the seas rise and fall, the polar caps melt and re-freeze, glaciers come and go and mass extinctions happen over and over. That's just the reality. For some real giggles, check out the temps during the Mesozoic period. Look up how far north the ferns were growing. Or not.

[Uncle Joe]

28. Yes and for billions of years hundreds of millions of cars and hundred of thousands if not millions

of industries have spewed carbon; long sequestered underground into the atmosphere, except they didn't and you don't take that in to consideration?

[Edweird]

29. I'm sorry but I have no idea what you're trying to say. Care to try again?

[Edweird]

30. I almost forgot: Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximium.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene%E2%80%93Eocene_Thermal_Maximum

[timeforpeace]

13. I'll want her explanation if she's wrong. Where will she be 100 years from now?

[Name removed]

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[DU GrovelBot]

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