Recession over? Yes or No?

[Synicus Maximus]

Source: AP and AFP

Two seemingly different statements from two White House aids.

Its Over

WASHINGTON – The top White House economic adviser says "everybody agrees the recession is over" even though many experts predict unemployment could climb higher.
Larry Summers says key indicators have shown that the economy is beginning to expand again and that job creation probably will follow. The jobless rate stands at 10 percent.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=post&forum=102&go_ahead=doit

Its not over.
WASHINGTON (AFP) – President Barack Obama's top economic aide Christina Romer said Sunday that the improving US economy is not yet out of recession, and will not turn the corner until the unemployment picture improves.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20091213/bs_afp/useconomyunemploymentrecession_20091213152716

I'm confused.

Read more: http://news.search.yahoo.com/news/search?ei=UTF-8&c=&p=recession

[bbinacan]

1. This admin is a

cluster fuck.

[ThomCat]

22. Yes it is. If unemplyment is still rising higher then the recession isn't over.

:grr:

I don't care what their pretty charts say, or if the corporations are doing well. For the vast majority of people, you know, citizens, the ones they should be concerned about, the recession is still getting worse.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

28. The definition of "recession" is based on pretty charts.

It's quite possible to not be in a recession and still have godawful unemployment.

[ThomCat]

31. No shit. I know that.

Economists define everything based on pretty charts and indicators that have nothing to do with the realities that people in the lower tax brackets face. But that doesn't mean that the realities down here in the lower tax brackets aren't real too.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

32. It also doesn't have anything to do with whether we're in a recession. n/t

[ThomCat]

33. Fine, go back to your economic journals where only the

world of the rich exists. :eyes:

We really don't need that shitty attitude here.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

34. Are you seriously suggesting that economists...

...should simply give up on trying to understand whether the economy is expanding or contracting? Whether or not the economy is expanding or contracting is simply one of a plethora of tools used by economists to try to understand the state of the economy. Like unemployment figures. And GDP. And CPI. But I guess reading angry posts on internet discussion forums is a far more precise economic tool in your world.

[ThomCat]

36. No, I'm saying in discussions Here

we don't need to limit ourselves to only what the economists definitions are. We are allowed to be concerned about real people

If you can't be bothered to be concerned about real people because the official definition only deals with bigger numbers then go talk someplace else.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

40. This has nothing to do with my concern or lack of concern for "real people."

Whether the recession is over or not over is an entirely separate issue. The recession could be over, and we would be in the midst of what's termed a "jobless recovery," which is not very good for "real people." But that doesn't mean that we should stop analyzing the economy in statistical terms just because you don't like what the numbers say.

[Diane R]

23. Are you sure you know you're on DU? Seems like Free Rep is where you belong.

[tavalon]

27. This administration does often resemble a cluster fuck,

sometimes even fubar. You gonna call me a freeper? Name calling is the refuge of small minded scoundrels. I just stole that from one of our founding fathers. I think it was Ben Franklin.

[JVS]

37. "Name calling is the refuge of goddamned fuckfaces"- Bukowski

[ThomCat]

29. Oh knock it off.

DU does not require a loyalty oath to the president just because he's a democrat. We don't act like republicans like that.

We support the party as a whole, not any one person in the party. We are free to critique the president if he's fucking up.

If you think that everyone should be marching in lockstep, cheering the president simply because he's the president then perhaps you are the one in the wrong place.

[truthisfreedom]

2. Up is the new down, but down is still the old down.

Or something. Jeeze, those guys need to get their story straight.

[Goldstein1984]

3. It's best just not to ask

The truth is a very complicated thing, so they just flip a coin before each press conference. Heads--the cup is half full; Tails--the cup is half empty.

I guess the Ministry of Truth couldn't keep up with the changes.

Ignorance is Strength.

[babylonsister]

4. Ask next year after the holidays and the next quarterly report.

As someone looking for a job, now is NOT the time to find anything. Lots of orgs. are doing end-of-the-year stuff, and hiring isn't at the top of their hit parade. Plus, no one wants to pay for holidays off for newbies.

I hope there will be some sunshine early next year for many people.

[pscot]

11. You're too valuable

to stay out of work for long. Good luck.

:hi:

[babylonsister]

13. Aw jeeze, from your lips...

:hug: Thank you!

[MannyGoldstein]

5. Dear God - Even This Gets Unrec-ed

Anything that doesn't involve the purist adulation of the Obama administration gets savaged these days...

[leftstreet]

8. +1

It used to be contained to GD:STFU, but it's been spilling over here lately

:banghead:

[flyarm]

39. welcome to undemocratic underground!!

ve shall not let zee truth be known!

[rwheeler31]

6. Things are getting better . the corporate media is not

allowed to say that.

[JVS]

7. Extremely weak recovery

Technically, since GDP going up, the recession is over. On the other hand the growth in GDP includes government expenditures and most of the GDP gain can be traced to growth in those expenditures, one can infer that the other segments that make up GDP are flat or possibly declining, so it's very weak. Next quarter could be better or worse, and it could turn into negative growth again, becoming a double dip.


Now here is where political positioning starts making things complex. If the administration wants to take credit for being in growth (even if weakly) now, then avoiding blame if it goes into the second dip is difficult.

[sendero]

9. Recession..

... is a technical term referring to the behavior of certain economic statistics.

These statistics are sometime meaningful, sometimes not, sometimes accurate, sometimes "adjusted" beyond recognition.

At some point we will be "technically" out of recession but nothing much will change for working Americans. The politicians and the media will focus on these technical indicators as meaningful when there are in fact not particularly.

To summarize, we are technically near the end of the "recession" but as a practical matter we are actually IN a depression.

[superconnected]

10. Most of us are still going through it. It will be over when my family quits feeling it.

[PDJane]

12. Repeat after me.

There is no such thing as a jobless recovery.

The first advisor is a banking advisor, and for banks and offshore corporations and the top 3%, the recession is over. For the rest of the world, it's not.

There's nothing to be confused about.

[leftstreet]

14. World's First Evah Jobless Recovery!

We're #1 !!!111

:banghead:

[MannyGoldstein]

17. Actually, Dim Son's Was Also (At Least Close To) Jobless nt

[Mithreal]

41. There is no such thing as a jobless recovery.

[StarfarerBill]

15. No jobs, no recovery. Period.

[HughMoran]

16. Define recession.

It's that simple - the up-till-jobless-recovery way of measurement was GDP growth. By that measure, we're out of the recession. If we want to change that definition to 'job growth', then we are not yet out of the recession.

Funny thing? Every single poster here knows this, so your post and everybody calling the administration a 'cluster-fuck' are being deliberately antagonistic and are simply looking for a fight. Pretty silly if you ask me.

[alfredo]

I want to see how Obama's meeting with the bankers goes. I hope he reads them

the riot act. I want him to put the fear of God in them.

[HughMoran]

26. He seemed genuinely pissed at them during his 60 minutes interview

he should force harsh regulations on them if they don't snap the &^&^out of it :mad:

[alfredo]

35. He needs to go "medieval on them." They need a little public humiliation.

[roamer65]

18. Technically, yes. In human terms, no.

The 3rd quarter posted GDP growth, therefore it was technically the end of the recession. In human terms, we are far from the end of economic troubles.

[RB TexLa]

19. No, the ones saying yes are trying to get people to spend their money.

[Ikonoklast]

20. Looking at the technicals, yes.

In all practicality for the everyday man in the street, the answer is no.

Until people see that there are new jobs, wage growth, a bottoming of the decline in housing values, they won't fell secure enough to spend money and support any economic recovery.

An 'L' shaped recovery when it comes to jobs is no real recovery for Main Street.

[Kansas Wyatt]

21. Kind of hard to improve unemployment when...

You keep exporting jobs and importing more shit from China. Oh shit, now the service economy is hurting too. Gee, who would have thought? And the people running this country think they are so intelligent and know so much more than the peons.

But hey, at least those fuckers in Washington have their guaranteed lifetime pension and health care to go with the board seat and/or lobbyist gig they have waiting on them. Because that's what really counts with what makes this country great... For them!

[Berry Cool]

24. Nope, not over yet.

I will let you all know when I have a job. Then it will officially be over. :-)

[bertman]

25. The dipshit who said "everybody agrees the recession is over" is probably pulling down close to

a quarter million a year at taxpayer expense. Probably has great bennies, too.

Kinda changes your perspective on the status of the depression. (I saw Paul Krugman refer to it as a depression in a commentary. No recession--we're talking depression. Not as great as the Great Depression, but a depression no less).

[backscatter712]

30. The economy is no longer nose-diving, but that's far from recovered.

When the unemployment level goes down to 4% or so, THAT'S when I consider the recession to be over.

[flyarm]

38. it's not over till people who lost jobs get equal jobs back! A recession is a recession if you

can't pay your bills, buy food for your family, can't pay your rent or mortgage, and don't have a freaking job!

anyone can fuck with numbers and the books!..they have throughout history!

Tell the guy or gal losing their home or job..the recession is over..or come here to Fla where businesses are still closing daily and unemployment is over 10%!!!!!!!!!! and that is just what is being reported..those numbers are jaded downward!

[Mithreal]

42. Some think it is just the math. I agree with you.