from ourfuture.org:
Conservative Policies, Economics Hard On FamiliesBy Natasha Chart
February 11, 2010 - 8:22am ET
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And by conservative, I mean with a small 'c', and I mean that strain of American political thought that favors the wealthy and large accumulations of profit over ordinary citizens and their well-being, regardless of party. Anyone who'd help a large corporation and worry about whether or not helping the unemployed creates a moral hazard, or would be ridiculous enough to compare the federal budget to a household budget to encourage social spending austerity, or who'd brag about running US currency rates as if this were a developing nation, I mean them.
The fortunes and health of American families have been burned in the sacrificial fire of their free market ideology and they're busy even now adding more wood to the blaze.
If I sound upset about that, it's because I am. Don Peck wrote a thoughtful article in the Atlantic about how an era of joblessness will change America, and probably damage the future career prospects of the new job-seekers coming of age right now. He lays out the worst of the news about how big a problem this is:
... The economy now sits in a hole more than 10 million jobs deep—that’s the number required to get back to 5 percent unemployment, the rate we had before the recession started, and one that’s been more or less typical for a generation. And because the population is growing and new people are continually coming onto the job market, we need to produce roughly 1.5 million new jobs a year—about 125,000 a month—just to keep from sinking deeper.
Even if the economy were to immediately begin producing 600,000 jobs a month—more than double the pace of the mid-to-late 1990s, when job growth was strong—it would take roughly two years to dig ourselves out of the hole we’re in. The economy could add jobs that fast, or even faster—job growth is theoretically limited only by labor supply, and a lot more labor is sitting idle today than usual. But the U.S. hasn’t seen that pace of sustained employment growth in more than 30 years. And given the particulars of this recession, matching idle workers with new jobs—even once economic growth picks up—seems likely to be a particularly slow and challenging process.
The construction and finance industries, bloated by a decade-long housing bubble, are unlikely to regain their former share of the economy, and as a result many out-of-work finance professionals and construction workers won’t be able to simply pick up where they left off when growth returns—they’ll need to retrain and find new careers. (For different reasons, the same might be said of many media professionals and auto workers.) And even within industries that are likely to bounce back smartly, temporary layoffs have generally given way to the permanent elimination of jobs, the result of workplace restructuring. Manufacturing jobs have of course been moving overseas for decades, and still are; but recently, the outsourcing of much white-collar work has become possible. Companies that have cut domestic payrolls to the bone in this recession may choose to rebuild them in Shanghai, Guangzhou, or Bangalore, accelerating off-shoring decisions that otherwise might have occurred over many years.
New jobs will come open in the U.S. But many will have different skill requirements than the old ones. “In a sense,” says Gary Burtless, a labor economist at the Brookings Institution, “every time someone’s laid off now, they need to start all over. They don’t even know what industry they’ll be in next.” And as a spell of unemployment lengthens, skills erode and behavior tends to change, leaving some people unqualified even for work they once did well. ...
When the president now expects 95,000 new jobs a month then, it means a 30,000 job per month deficit from where we should be to keep up with new job seekers entering the market. ..........(more)
The complete piece is at:
http://www.ourfuture.org/blog-entry/2010020611/conservative-policies-economics-hard-families