Kidnappers always tell their victim’s family not to contact the police.

[raccoon]

Sometimes the family does, sometimes they don’t. But the thing is, once the kidnappers receive the ransom money, there’s little incentive for them to return the victim, especially if they think s/he might be able to identify them.
Your thoughts?

(This is strictly hypothetical, BTW.)

[EOTE]

1. The movie "Ransom" dealt with this line of thought.

I agree, it seems they would have little incentive, other than a shred of decency, to return the victim after receiving the money. I'd have a hard time not contacting the authorities if I were in such a situation.

[dmallind]

4. I don't know the answer, but it's not so rare a crime that data could not be used

Questions I would ask would include:

1) How many people who contacted police got the victim returned? How many who did not got that result? (as a percentage)
2) How many people who paid and complied saw the victim returned unharmed? How many who did not got that result? (again as a percentage)
3) What impact did any other attempts to "resist" the kidnappers have on success rate? (double cross them, hire private investigators, etc)

There are certainly SOME reasons for kidnappers to comply if complied with. For example there are profitable gangs in Mexico who rely on word of mouth and publicity so that victims' families know taht payment will indeed bring safe return. They want the money, and so they "play fair" when paid. Another incentive would be that penalties for kidnapping are not light, but they are less severe than for kidnapping and murder.

Even criminals can do risk benefit analysis.

[EOTE]

6. I think most criminals do a fairly poor risk/benefit analysis.

If they were more capable, I think they'd most likely not be criminals. And I tend to think that in tense situations, their ability to think becomes even more hindered and emotion often takes over. I'd think that if a kidnapper thought he/she could be identified by the victim, they'd be less likely to think about the consequences of murdering someone than they would be about the consequences of being pegged by the victim. But then again, I guess a lot of that would depend on how serious a "job" they're participating in. I'd be interested in the data pertaining to these situations as well, but from the anecdotal evidence I've seen, I think it would more often than not benefit a person NOT to comply with a ransomer's request not to have authorities involved. Especially if it can be done discretely.

[On the Road]

2. Personally, I Think There is a Tremendous Incentive

to return the victim in order to take the urgency out of the investigation. As long as there's a missing child, it is an extremely high-priority matter for the police. It would seem like a kidnapper would have a much better chance of evading the police if no one is dead or missing. Plus, as serious as kidnapping is, adding murder to the charges is literally a death sentence.

[heli]

3. It's not a hypothetical situation

Kidnapping is currently an epidemic in Phoenix:

http://articles.latimes.com/2009/feb/12/nation/na-drug-kidnappings12

America's kidnapping capital
Mexican drug gangs bring abduction epidemic to Phoenix
February 12, 2009 | Sam Quinones

PHOENIX — In broad daylight one January afternoon, on a street of ranch-style houses with kidney-shaped swimming pools, Juan Francisco Perez-Torres was kidnapped in front of his wife, daughter and three neighbors. Two men with a gun grabbed the 34-year-old from his van and dragged him 50 yards to a waiting SUV. His wife threw rocks at the car, then gave chase in her own SUV. Neighbors in northwest Phoenix called police. Yet when police found her later, she at first denied there was a problem.

On the phone later, as detectives listened in, kidnappers said Perez-Torres had stolen someone's marijuana.

But police were used to conflicting story lines by now. It was Phoenix, after all: More ransom kidnappings happen here than in any other town in America, according to local and federal law enforcement authorities. Most every victim and suspect is connected to the drug-smuggling world, usually tracing back to the western Mexican state of Sinaloa, Phoenix police report.

Arizona has become the new drug gateway into the United States. Roughly half of all marijuana seized along the U.S.-Mexico border was taken on the state's 370-mile border with Mexico. One result is an epidemic of kidnapping that many residents are barely aware of. Indeed, most every other crime here is down. But police received 366 kidnapping-for-ransom reports last year, and 359 in 2007. Police estimate twice that number go unreported...

[howard112211]

5. I think I would call the police.

Provided I could do so without the kidnapper knowing, it would probably be the best shot. I assume the police are expecting to be dealing with a "don't call the police" situation and will act accordingly.