Kay Bailey Hutchison trails far behind 'Goodhair' Perry in polls

[heli]

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/21/us/politics/21texas.html

February 21, 2010
A Texas Senator, Now a Challenger Lagging in Polls
By JAMES C. McKINLEY Jr.

DALLAS — Just a year ago, many Republican leaders considered Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison to be the odds-on favorite to become the next governor of Texas. A popular lawmaker from the old-guard Republican establishment, she was seen as someone who could widen the party’s appeal after the setbacks it suffered during the 2008 national election. Back then, the incumbent, Gov. Rick Perry, appeared vulnerable, having won a four-way re-election fight in 2006 and having hitched himself to the most conservative wing of the Republican Party.

But the political winds have shifted for Ms. Hutchison in the last few months, and she now finds herself far behind in the polls, as Mr. Perry has managed to surf a wave of anger here over President Obama’s policies. Never has a race for governor in Texas so clearly defined the difference between the country-club wing of the Republican Party, where elite business leaders sit astride the financial engines of Dallas and Houston, and the populist Reagan Republicans, talk-radio-fueled voters who are upset about issues like budget deficits, gun control and legalized abortion.

In a sense, Mr. Perry is the embodiment of white, conservative Democrats from the South who switched parties after Ronald Reagan’s presidency. The son of a West Texas rancher, he was an Air Force pilot before he won a Statehouse seat as a Democrat in 1984. He has never lost a race since. Ms. Hutchison, who was first elected to the Senate in 1993, has rallied most of the Republican establishment behind her. Former President George Bush has endorsed her, as has former Vice President Dick Cheney. While President George W. Bush has not taken a public stand, several people close to him are working to elect her, among them Karen Hughes, his former political adviser.

But two weeks before the Republican primary on March 2, Mr. Perry has turned his fortunes around by promoting the Texas economy and railing against every decision in Washington, including the economic stimulus bill, the bank bailout legislation and the move to limit carbon emissions. On the stump, he often sounds as if he is running against the federal government. “Do you want a leader who loves Texas and all it stands for or a creature of Washington that tears down the state?” he said at a recent rally where former Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska endorsed him... Ms. Hutchison, meanwhile, has hammered at Mr. Perry with accusations of cronyism and influence peddling, saying he supported policies to help companies that have hired former members of his staff. “I’ll close the revolving door on lobbyists, end the backroom dealing and bust up the good-old-boy network,” she told a Republican club meeting in Denton on Thursday. “Only a new governor will do this. The governor we have now thinks this is fine.”...

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AUSTIN — At his inauguration, after being sworn into office by the first black chief justice of the Texas Supreme Court — a man he appointed — Gov. Rick Perry spoke wistfully of a tolerant Texas, where "no one is invalidated because of their heritage, but valued because of their humanity." Rocking the house as the night's final act was singer Ted Nugent, a friend of Perry's. Nugent appeared onstage wearing a cut-off T-shirt emblazoned with the sure-to-draw-headlines Confederate flag and shouting unflattering remarks about non-English speakers, according to people who were in attendance. His props were machine guns. (Houston Chronicle | Jan 18, 2007)

[lonestarnot]

1. Maybe public option could be in the crystal ball afterall.

Never a doubt.

[w8liftinglady]

2. If I had to pick between the two(because forget about Bill White winning)

I would pick Kay.She(or a staff member) has ALWAYS delivered hand written correspondence when I have written her(which was almost weekly when my son was in Iraq).I disagree with her on many things,but she seems to have a little more substance.

[Laf.La.Dem.]

3. WOW - a Republican was in the military!!!!

"he was an Air Force pilot":wow:

[jobycom]

4. He was a Democrat then. He changed parties. nt

[jobycom]

5. She's losing because she's run a dogawful stupid campaign.

And Perry never runs a stupid campaign.

She has tried to attack him on all the issues they claim Texans are upset about. She claimed he was for big government, he was a big spender, he was a corrupt cronyist, and all the stuff a liberal might attack him on. Problem is, Perry isn't viewed as any of those things, and she couldn't really come up with good examples of why he was. She used toll roads as an example, claiming toll roads were big spending and more taxes. Problem is, the only place toll roads have been a negative is in Austin, where Republicans are few. She ran commercials attacking him for building better rest stops on the interstates--something even Republicans appreciate.

So while she was making grand accusations that were easily disputed and even turned back on her--she's signed quite a few spending bills herself, and they usually look worse than Perry's--Perry hit all the right buttons. He attacked Obama and Washington for all the stuff Texans like to attack Obama over. That also spray paints Hutchison, who has been in the Senate for decades. He touted all his tax cut and budget cut successes, which counters her image and goes along with the image Texans have of him anyway. He's played the emotional cards perfectly, identifying himself with the mystique of Texas, as a hard worker and the son of a rancher and all that good shiny stuff that sells here, even in the cities where most people have never even seen a ranch except in a John Wayne movie.

One other thing Perry does well is rope-a-dope. He doesn't speak a lot unless he has to, so he doesn't create an image of himself until he has to. He lets his opponents take their shots, then in the late rounds he jumps in, refutes everything they say, defines himself as the opposite of what they accuse, and then starts jabbing. That negates all the campaigning they've done against him by letting him define himself differently than they have (and since he hasn't spoken much, there's nothing they can use to refute him), and it puts them on the defensive during the home stretch. He's a junkyard dog of a politician. If it sounds like I have a grudging respect, even admiration, for his campaign abilities, I do. I hate the man and his politics, but he's the shrewdest campaigner I've ever seen in Texas. I hope to hell he loses. But I'm always amazed at how he wins, even with low approval numbers.

Hutchison, who I do like a little and do respect more as a person, has run a stupid campaign completely out of touch. That's why he's winning. No one really likes Perry, but he makes them like him just a little bit more than his opponents. Four years ago he won by being the most extreme rightwinger in the Republican Party. This year he's going to win by being the most moderate. He just knows how to play the game.

Bill White's best chance is to make a lot of noise and make Perry start talking early. White's shrewd, too. He's a lot better candidate than we've had since Ann. I'm hoping he makes this race interesting. I don't count him out, and actually think he's got a better chance than people give him credit for. He's going to have to be perfect, though.

Just my observations. Probably wrong, as always.

[c brand]

7. Perry learned well from his boss Bush & Rove

[jobycom]

8. He's way smarter than Bush and Rove.

He was running like that before he met them. He never liked Bush much, I don't think. He was loyal to him because that's the side his bread was buttered on. Bush is a stupid campaigner. Rove is brilliant, but in a different way than Perry.

Perry learned as much from his Democratic roots as his Rovian associations. He campaigns like a Texas populist--attack government, side with the people, stick with the popular wisdom of the day. He has no real ideology, so he goes where the people point rather than trying to change their direction. He's like a conservative Huey Long.

He learned a thing or two from Rove, but that's not his only influence. And when I say he's smarter than Bush or Rove, I don't mean he's that smart. He's just a shrewder campaigner.

[Skink]

6. Obama came close. White could benefit from people staying home...

if they feel they just can't vote for Hutchinson or Perry depending on which one gets the nomination.

[jobycom]

10. There's more for White to work with than people think in Texas.

The economy is suffering. People don't like Perry, even if they vote for him. Perry is gruff and mean, and White could push that aspect of him. And Perry doesn't really stand for much, so he has contradictions that White could play up. I think in a debate on issues, Perry can be made to look dumb. And White should have a decent base in the cities and even in East Texas to work with.

If he runs a smart campaign as a moderate, lays a few traps for Perry, sidesteps Perry's own traps, he could have a shot. Texas is Republican because of segregation and because of the Bushes. The Bushes aren't running, and aren't as popular as they used to be anyway, and seregation was a long time ago. Immigration is the new segregation, but that's a double-edged sword for Republicans in Texas. The tougher you are on immigration, the more you alienate the Hispanic vote.

There's also the whole changing demographics here. Whites are less than 50%. African Americans are overwhelmingly Democrat. The thing that pleases the white Perry voters most often displeases a large percentage of the Hispanic vote. White could capitalize on that. He can't run the same campaign our candidates keep running, trying to piss off as few people as possible while seeming almost as conservative as the Republican. He needs a bold campaign that hits Perry's weaknesses but also hits the right points for himself. He needs to offer a positive image along with tearing down Perry's image. That would give him a chance.

[David Zephyr]

9. This is good news. I hope he trounces her.

It will help Bill White to run against Perry.

And KB Hutchison and her husband both should be in prison cells with Phil and Wendy Gramm for their criminal behavior with Enron.

[jobycom]

11. +1

[c brand]

12. So the outcome might hinge on teabag/redneck vs. black/Hisp turnout in Nov.