I am afraid that California is going to get hit with a big size aftershock

[thewiseguy]

If you pay attention, most of the aftershocks are happening north of where the 7.2 quake struck. This might be a total crapshoot but I fear that the biggest aftershock may strike somewhere in California. I personally think that is very possible within the next 2 months.

I am hoping that does no happen but .... :(

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. Were you watching CalTech?

They actually went through that... but the chances drop quite a bit, like from 5% to lower after a couple hours.

[thewiseguy]

3. It usually takes time for the big aftershock to take place

I do not think it is going to be a day or two, or even a week.

If you look at Chile or even other big earthquakes, the main aftershock usually happens several weeks later.

[nadinbrzezinski]

7. She went into that as well

and they expect a six, it is in the usual pattern.

[thewiseguy]

13. I also expect something between a 6 and 6.5

[nadinbrzezinski]

15. Which is not off expectations

[CaliforniaPeggy]

2. If it happens, it happens.

When you live in California, you get used to the idea of earthquakes coming without warning.

You just have to be as ready as possible, and then stop obsessing...

You can make yourself crazy with worry otherwise!

:crazy:

[Tikki]

5. You are correct Peggy...we MIGHT get an...

Earthquake soon or we may not. Lots and lots of days, weeks, months, years go
by and we have no serious Earthquakes...


Tikki

[marmar]

6. As much as I love the Bay Area.....and I love it more than any urban space except Paris.....

It's the trepidation about shifting plates that keeps me from moving there.

[Ecumenist]

19. Hello Marmar..there's a reason why they're not called

Californiaquakes or SanFranciscoquakes, but earthquakes... If you live on earth, you have the chance of going through one. At least we have building codes on place when the destructive quakes happento mitigate some of the destructiveness. You live a place you couldn't pay me enough to live in. You are going to have ISSUES when New Madrid lets go and God only knows how many unknown faults are in your area. You also live in a part of the country that is geologically speaking, ALOT older AND more brittle than here.
So, in essence, when the earth shakes under YOUR feet, it will be ALOT more destructive than it ever would be out here, proportionally speaking because the S P Waves will be magnified by your brittle crust versus our much younger and in some cases, actual partial liquid crust on the west coast. Your buldings, in addition to being old are often BRICK and un-reinforced at that. What do you suppose is going to happen when things start rocking and rolling in your area in a major way?
I'm a native Californian, born and bred and I will say it again, I wouldn't take all the tea in China to live out there where you are.

[marmar]

23. Yeah, but we've got water....

:)

[Ecumenist]

27. So do I...I live in Northern California

and in my CITY alone, there are 3 RIVERS. Southern California gets their water from us. My city sits at the top of a delta. In fact, we are always worried about floods, (CATASTROPHIC) in the winters and spring. I'm about 1.5 hours east-northeast of San Francisco.

[nebenaube]

30. I hope you have a boat...

here's a hint... UC-Davis may well be your closest island in the near future...

[Ecumenist]

32. Actually, the eastern end of the county would be the island.

I used to live in that part of the county and all the water drained AWAY from Folsom, Fair Oaks, etc. & UC Davis would flood in a catastrophic flood codition. My cousin was attending the university in 1986 when that big flood hit here. UC Davis was NOT spared.

[Confusious]

28. You get used to it

I woke up in the middle of a 7.5 in Alaska and went back to sleep.

[nadinbrzezinski]

10. It was my job at one time to write the emergency plan

for a city of three million, one airport, and some lousy infrastructure... and I did not obsess about it either.

:-)

Well more than necessary.

[SoCalDem]

4. The planet is always in motion.. don't worry about it

there's nothing you can do about it anyway:hug:

[Raine]

8. More than an after shock I expect

we'll be getting a big earthquake here before long. The rest of the world seems to be getting them and we're long overdue. I thought at first that this one was our big one.

Edit: to cut out repeated phrase.

[nosmokes]

9. OFCOL

do you spend a lot of time being afraid of being hit by a meteorite as well?

[thewiseguy]

12. No

but I think folks in Southern California need to be prepared because it is very probable that a quake of size 6 to 6.5 will hit there within the next few months.

This has happened before and it will happen again, just have to learn from the history and be prepared for the future.

[Skink]

11. The question remains, do you want fries with that?

[Tikki]

14. Colorado has Avalanche deaths...

...6 so far this year. Never know when one will hit in Colorado.


Tikki

[Raine]

21. At least those that can be avoided by staying

off the slopes. It's kind of hard to stay off the earth in a place you were born in. :yoiks:

[Tikki]

24. Colorado needs to close all their....

Ski and Mountain resorts?

Tikki

[Birthmark]

16. I predict a 9.7 magnitude earthquake...

...at some time in the future. Where, I haven't worked out yet. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED! semi:sarcasm:

[gleaner]

17. I don't think it will ....

I am 62 years old and a native Californian to establish earthquake credentials. I have experienced both the Sylmar and Northridge earthquakes as an adult and the bigger after shocks usually hit closer to the epicenter rather than further away.

I'm in LA and I haven't felt any of the aftershocks. Just the first rolling of the initial quake. After Northrige the big aftershocks came right away. Don't worry too much thewiseguy, based on experience the odds are much more distant than even a crap shoot.

Earthquakes are unnerving at the best of times, but following Haiti and Chile they assume a whole new fear factor. Those were subduction fault movements though. The continental plates were slipping under each other beneath the ocean. We don't have those kind of earthquakes here. The nearest subduction faults are around Oregon and Alaska to the north. We'll be OK.

[thewiseguy]

20. Thanks a lot.

Hope you are right. :)

[gleaner]

31. You're welcome ...

Earthquakes are among the most unnerving of natural disasters because you never really have any warning. I'm sure we'll be all right. Here is a link to Cal Tech. http://www.data.scec.org/ This link is for Southern California. If you explore the site they have worldwide information too. It isn't scary, it is interesting and it helps sometimes to track the patterns of the aftershocks. Give it shot. It might help.;)

[azmouse]

18. I'm in the Phoenix area and saw my pool sloshing this afternoon

in a way it doesn't usually move. Didn't realize it was a quake until now.

[nadinbrzezinski]

22. You had a mini tsunami and didn't even realize it

speaking of that the news models were going, NO Tsumai warning? No you idiots, this was WELL INLAND.

[Duer 157099]

25. I wonder how those stats take into account the proximity of faults?

I just wonder if that's factored into the equation, of if it's rather just a generic comment that ignores the relationships between faults?

Because the San Andreas Fault is an actual physical thing that has a specific location. And it also happens to be what they call "overdue" for a release of large amounts of energy. And it's a known that sizable earthquakes trigger other faults into activity.

So, I wonder if that "5% probability" has taken the San Andreas Fault into consideration?

[Tutankhamun]

26. I find it useful to predict failure for any and all catastrophic disaster scenarios.

The logic of this tactic being that if the earth is hit by that asteroid, we'll all be dead so nobody can ever give you credit for predicting it. So just predict, with absolute certainty, no such catastrophe will occur. Then, when the day passes you can take credit. Tadaa! :-)

[Duer 157099]

29. Look at this shake map

Now, maybe this is normal, maybe it's just a manifestation of the soil composition, but... doesn't it appear as though the area right at the southern shore of the Salton Sea--and dangerously close to the southern tip of the San Andreas Fault--has a higher-than-the-surrounding-areas shake score?

What effect, if any, might this have on the SAF?