CHANGE: 290,000 New Jobs Last Month

[berni_mccoy]

The economy hasn't seen this many new jobs since March 2006.

If this continues, Republicans won't gain nearly as many new seats as they hoped for.

Like it or not, the 2010 election outcome will depend mostly upon the economy.

[ipaint]

1. The birth/death model added 188k.

That's the same birth/death model that overestimated by over 800,000 last year. Plus 66k are temporary census jobs.

[berni_mccoy]

2. Can't handle the good news, can you? Last month's jobs data is adjusted just like

every other month has been.

[Dawgs]

3. I'm starting to think that some are only happy with bad news.

Some of the comments regarding today's jobs report resemble comments by Boehner and Hannity.

[berni_mccoy]

4. Spot on.

[AllentownJake]

14. I like the reality based community, which doesn't include those guys

Here is the deal, when someone can't argue a point of view, they generally resort to name calling or accusations...which you have not so subtlety done.

This is a telephone survey where there is manipulation in categorization no real hard data to see here, not a new talking point of mine, have been saying that for 6-8 months now ;-)

[Donnachaidh]

48. +100,000

spot on!

[NeedleCast]

17. That's like, one of the key components of DU

The Doom-n-Gloom crowed is never happy with good news and will always, to some extent or another, attempt to mitigate it by pointing out bad news, even if it has nothing to do with the good news.

[AllentownJake]

19. I guess we can sing Always look on the bright side of life

and make you guys happy?

[NeedleCast]

32. Yeah, because those are obviouslly the only two options

What's it like in your black and white world?

Like most people, I spend my life living in the pragmatic world that exists between the two extremes. Come, join us.

[AllentownJake]

34. I'm more pragmatic than most of you

Recognizing that things are bad right now, is a survival mechanism. Kind of like when you touch an oven and it burns your hand...it isn't a bad thing.

[NeedleCast]

42. Who's arguing that things aren't bad?

I don't think anyone is saying that the addition of 290,000 jobs is a return to the Clinton boom years. However, it's a positive trend that's been running a few months now.

[AllentownJake]

43. It is about 32k to 36k

I don't trust the BLS labor report for many reasons I've cited.

As far as keeping a positive perspective, I have my garden and a few roses bushes that get TLC every morning.

My grandparents survived worst...however if we are discussing this report, I will point out the flaws in their data gathering methodology and categorizations.

[scheming daemons]

62. You are no longer living in the "reality based community", Jake...

...All your predictions are turning out false... and the cognitive dissonance in your head is too hard for you to reconcile.


Almost every day, we receive HARD data that proves things are rebounding... and now that even includes the best jobs report in 4 years....

...and it would have been the best jobs report if you completely leave out the census jobs.



I know that you are emotionally invested in the economy tanking. You've staked your reputation on it.


You're wrong. And that's becoming clearer every single day.

[ipaint]

5. Yes march was adjusted about 80,000.

More people looking for work and no jobs for them. The U6 is up again to 17.1 and the number of long term unemployed jumped again.
Unemployed is unemployed. I'm glad the temps in census have jobs this month but 800,000 folks re-entered the looking for a job category and most found nothing.

Hooray.

[berni_mccoy]

6. More people are going back to looking for work because there are more jobs. You can "paint" it

anyway you want. The facts are the facts. Obama's economic policies have positively impacted this economy. You can't spin it away.

[dmallind]

7. ...and of course the 230,000 people who found private sector jobs are just a mirage,eh?

Tell me when people left the workforce and the rate went down a few months ago did you focus on the rate or the workforce number? Lemme guess....not the same one you're focusing on today.

[AllentownJake]

12. 180,000 positions were a statistical adjustment

Does it exist :shrug:

The new claims data was not good for April...you know people filing for unemployment. It only cracked below 450,000 once so I find this report pretty laughable.

[dmallind]

13. In April? Cite for that? NT

[AllentownJake]

16. What do you think the birth/death ratio is

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-real-unemployment-rate-jumps-to-171-2010-5

[dmallind]

21. ...ermmm...part of workforce size calculations rather than job numbers?

I was I confess unaware the B/D ratio was assigned to industry types, but apparently it must be since we got 230,000 new jobs allocated by them....

[AllentownJake]

27. You do know this is a telephone survey correct

Sorry I'm an accountant and used to be an auditor, actually a pretty damn good one and I've taken more than my fair share of statistical courses for that purpose.

The way that something is counted or categorized is as important as the final number.

I generally look from hard numbers and look for what I know from there.

There are no hard numbers in this report and tons of manipulation that is the compound effect of 7 Presidents doing all they can to change the way things are counted to make them look the best as possible.

[dmallind]

36. Sure I do. Always has been, Know the MOE on a 50000 sample? NT

[AllentownJake]

44. You do understand sample size right?

Sample size selection, categorization, etc are more important.

[dmallind]

37. Oh and implied job gaimns are 550K. 290K is calculated form the sample so based on real gains. NT

[AllentownJake]

9. That was a statement of fact

180,000 of the jobs are a statistical adjustment.

This is a telephone survey with ridiculous statistical games.

The new claims numbers were still not good this month and I'm waiting for sales tax data.

[dmallind]

15. So please finally tell us

WHAT is the real indicator that determines good news and bad news for you?

You said it was bad when the rates went down and people left the workforce.

You are saying it's bad when the exact opposite happened this month

Now it's the new claims?

[AllentownJake]

18. I've been critical of this report

For over 6 months.

It is a phone survey.

As far as the U6 number and U3 number increasing these are all categorization games than are being played out because this report has always and will always be used as a propaganda tool.

New claims under 450,000 traditionally single job creation.

Income Tax receipts and sales tax receipts, rail traffic, and defaults is what I've been looking at for months as well as new claims data.

[dmallind]

22. New claims data are worthless without new hire data. NT

[AllentownJake]

26. This doesn't really give you hard data on new hires

lol.

ADP report showed 32,000....which after you take out all the nonsense and census jobs is probably closer to reality.

[dmallind]

38. ADP does not process all payrolls. Depends who is hiring. LOL. NT

[nadinbrzezinski]

40. THere are people INVESTED

in the failure of the economy. They don't get it, it will not just affect the rich. In fact the less you have the more it will affect it.

[TheWatcher]

47. Delete.

Simply pointless to even respond this stuff anymore.

[HughMoran]

56. ihate

pattern emerges...

[Greyhound]

57. Now, don't go spoiling their distraction. How is one to lead a cheer

with some smartaleck pointing to the scoreboard?

Why do you hate America?

[Prism]

8. Underemployment, the true measure, ticked up to 17.1%

The full picture is always soundest.

The "official" numbers - the politically useful ones that can be bent and manipulated at will - aren't nearly as significant as that underemployment tally, which is what is directly happening to and felt by working Americans. Until that number starts coming down significantly, voters will still be restless.

[dmallind]

10. Was it the true measure when it went down because people left the workforce

That was good news right? Unless you said so then you have no credibility now.

[Prism]

60. I have always said so

You can thumb through my posting history if you like. I have always considered the underemployment number to be the measure we should be concentrating on - not the political and media concocted nonsense numbers we always hear.

I'm actually a little confused as to why that number went up. It wasn't expected this month, especially not with census work and higher manufacturing. I'm still trying to pin down why it should be so. There's a reason - always a reason - but it's not obvious from the media write-ups so far.

[berni_mccoy]

11. 0.2% increase while jobs number nearly doubles... primarily due to people going back to *looking*

for work. The data is surveyed. The jobs created will lead the underemployment figure.

And if the number was down, you'd be focusing on the jobs number.

Whatever number you want to look at, right?

[Prism]

59. I don't think you understand how this stuff works.

The underemployment number includes people who are no longer looking. So people going back to looking do not affect this number at all.

It is possible for the jobs created number to increase while the job market as a whole remains relatively stagnant.

BTW, I have been focused on that underemployment number in most of my posts about the economy, going back over a year. This is no sudden preoccupation. It's a serious concern about the economic opportunities for working Americans.

Most people don't understand how to read these reports. They go with headlines and beltway commentary. Which is fine. We're a surface culture. Nothing deeper or too complex for us, please.

But if you're going to bitch at someone, please know something of the topic at hand first.

[arcadian]

20. Due to the Census hiring.

Those people will be let go in a month or so.

[dmallind]

23. About 22% due to that actually. 231K private sector jobs added. NT

[AllentownJake]

28. Not really lol

but the poster will keep telling you that.

The report is available online, the funny thing is that it actually tells you things if you take the time to read it as long as you are reading it like you would a political poll and look at it as responses from people polled.

[Name removed]

39. Deleted message

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[kentuck]

24. The stock market should be up on this news...

But it is down this morning??

[NeedleCast]

33. No, it shouldn't

The market loves speculation, hates facts.

[AllentownJake]

35. I think it hates Currency devaluation in Europe nt.

[Better Today]

46. But this report isn't based on facts, it's based on polling.

[Better Today]

25. berni, here's what I notice when these last two reports came out with that graph.

The thread devolves into arguing about the validity of the numbers. I never see anyone actually verify that in their world, jobs actually seem more available. I never see anyone post, well hey here in bumfeck Iowa, there are starting to be more real job postings, or anything like that.

And bernie, how anyone can think the job outlook is getting any better when there are one or two OPs a week by people really excited because they finally got a job, at half the pay, after being unemployed for umptine months...well, if the jobs outlook were really improving we'd have dozens or hundreds a week, OR "I got a job at half the pay, but yeehaw" wouldn't be the kind of post that raises to the greatest page.

These reports that you post are just number games, when are you going to realize it?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. Nobody Will Touch That

~

[SpartanDem]

30. This is climate denier logic

it's the same logic that has people deny global warming, because the country under goes a major cold snap. The job numbers, like the climate change studies are empirical the health of the economy shouldn't be based on gut feeling.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. New Jobs Are Being Created But Not At The Rate Needed To Bring The Jobless Rate Down

~

[HughMoran]

58. Because more people are optimistic that the economy is turning and have started to look for work

Simple calculus - it seems public opinion is turning positive - this is not a bad thing by any stretch of the imagination. Add to that the actual increasing numbers of jobs added and we're on the road to a slow but steady recovery. It's certainly not a bad thing.

[dmallind]

41. Hmm...Refute data with anecdotes? Nope sorry

We cannot find enough machinists to add a second shift. Jobs have been posted for two months $20/hr. That do you? Or not valid somehow?

[Better Today]

45. Links please. If what you're saying is accurate, then either

you are in one of the very few areas that is showing stability and growth, and hat's off if you are, OR $20 is half what the job is worth, OR the company has a bad reputation regarding it's employment practices. At least that's my take on it. Around here for every job, there are between 50 and 100 replies. For my field, I've managed about 7 first round interviews in 22 months, all of whom told me they had over 150 responses in the first day of the employment ad, and made it 3 times to the second/final round interviews. Clearly I haven't been hired yet. AND every single job was being offered between 30-50% less than the same job would've been just two and a half to three years ago.

I'm thrilled if the world you live in at the moment is as rosy as you think it is, but I don't think it resembles any type of nationwide trend.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

49. Last Time I Looked I Read There Are Six Applicants For Every Job

The historical norm is 1.25

[Better Today]

54. Not around here. Maybe it depends on the job??? All I know is

what is being reported when a new entity shows up with plans to hire, "they have openings for 20 positions but received over 2000 applications" type stuff. And then there is my experience as well. Perhaps the 6:1 is an overall average including jobs that many professionals simply cannot consider (until after foreclosure and bankruptcy) because the minimum wage, part-time simply won't help them out of their bind.

[Lorien]

50. While unemployment rose from 9.7% to 9.9%.

Try full disclosure for a Change, berni.

[berni_mccoy]

52. Krugman has some words for you

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/berni_mccoy/976

[AllentownJake]

53. Paul is still talking

How many times does he bend and contradict himself this week...I liked him better when Bush was President and he actually just said what he thought.

[Beetwasher]

55. Why Don't YOU Tell Us How Many Times He's "Bended And Contradicted Himself This Week..."?

Please. Show us exactly where he's doing this. Or are you just making this claim up?

[berni_mccoy]

61. I can't see what Ignored has said, but if they think what you quoted...

then I feel sorry for them.

[TexasObserver]

51. It's awesome news! Just what the country needs most.

[Liberal_in_LA]

63. agreed n/t

[provis99]

64. big deal. The Canadians got 100,000 new jobs in March.

And their economy is one-tenth the size of ours. So the way I read it, we are doing about four times shittier than the Canadians.

[scheming daemons]

65. We had to come back from a much further decimation