Mother Jones: How Bad Could the BP Spill Get?

[marmar]

How Bad Could the BP Spill Get?
— By Kate Sheppard

| Fri May. 14, 2010 10:46 AM PDT


How much oil is gushing into the Gulf of Mexico? No one knows for sure, but the answer is likely far, far worse than what BP has admitted. One outside calculation estimates that the Gulf has already experienced the equivalent of six Exxon Valdez spills. And without an accurate number, there's increasing fear that the response may fail.

BP says approximately 210,000 gallons of oil are spilling into the Gulf per day. But John Amos, a geologist at the West Virginia-based nonprofit SkyTruth, says that at least 1.1 million gallons of oil is leaking out of the well every day. His calculation is based on early NASA images of the slick that showed it covering 2,200 square miles of the Gulf, and on the estimated thickness of oil needed for the slick to be visible from space. "If it really is just 210,000 and they can't handle that—you've got to be kidding me," says Amos, who has tracked the changing estimates of the spill on his blog. "One of the world's biggest oil companies plus the Coast Guard has been beaten by 210,000 gallons a day—do they really want us to think that?"

But even this figure may be on the low end. Under pressure, BP for the first time released video of the sea floor spill site this week. Steven Wereley, an associate professor of mechanical engineering at Purdue University, analyzed the tape and told NPR this week that the oil flow is likely closer to 3 million gallons a day. If that's the case, the situation in the Gulf would equal more than two Exxon Valdez spills every week. The Exxon Valdez incident was, until now, the worst oil spill disaster in US history.

And the absolute worst-case-scenario? According to government data on daily production at another Gulf well, the BP spill could spew 6 million gallons per day if the wellhead that's currently restricting the flow breaks. ..........(more)

The complete piece is at: http://motherjones.com/blue-marble/2010/05/how-bad-bp-spill

[SpiralHawk]

1. "Screw the so-called facts. This is natural." - Rush DraftDodger Limbaugh (R)

"The pointy-head lib-ruls are getting their panties in a twist over this oil thingy in the Gulf, but it's completely natural. Forget about it. I guarantee you, it will have no impact whatsoever on the Massive Profits I rake in serving as a propaganda pimp for republicon corporations. Sneer."

- Rush DraftDodger Limbaugh (R)

[Atman]

3. Anal cysts are natural, too...doesn't mean we want 'em!

Unless, of course, we're trying to dodge the draft.

[madrchsod]

2. this could alter the entire ecological system....

of the gulf region and could have a profound effect on migratory patterns in the middle west. right now there`s concern that Katrina has changed certain pelican migratory habits.

[Karenina]

6. The Endgame...

http://www.endgamethebook.org/Excerpts/1-Premises.htm

[BrklynLiberal]

4. Horrifying...and disgusting.

[amborin]

5. and the admin allowed them to suppress the video all this time

[KharmaTrain]

7. Numbing Numbers

We're (pardon the pun) in "unchartered waters" here...there's no spill that has been of this scope and thus I don't believe a lot of the predictions...from BP or those who are going to use this catastrophe to scroe their own political points.

I'm dubious with that 1.1 million figure...three was a geologist on PBS the other day who corroborated the 200k figure based on what he was measuring coming out of the pipe on the video. Be it 1.1 million, 200,000 or even 10,000 barrels, it's affects on the Gulf will take months and years to play out as it circulates around the currents.

Someone brought up a question I've been wondering about as well...how this oil will affect the upcoming hurricane season. Will the oil be scooped up in a storm and dumped ashore? As I say, we're in unchartered waters here and no matter the numbers, it's a disaster on a scale we've never encountered before.