NOAA to release storm season outlook

[FLPanhandle]

NOAA will release its outlook for hurricane season on Thursday, and the guess here is that it will call for a busy – if not a very busy – year.

Generally, NOAA’s forecast roughly follows that of Phil Klotzbach and William Gray of Colorado State University, as both teams study the same basic set of climatic factors to develop their predictions.

Klotzbach-Gray call for 15 named storms, including eight hurricanes, four intense. They note El Niño is fading and sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are abnormally warm.

Both teams also look at years where atmospheric conditions prior to the start of the season were similar to those of this year. Klotzbach-Gray point to 1998 and 2005, which saw 10 and 15 hurricanes respectively.

Keep in mind that NOAA provides its forecast in ranges. So don’t be surprised to see the high end of those ranges exceed the Klotzbach-Gray numbers.



They better get that oil stopped quickly or it'll be raining oil all the way to New England.

[gimama]

1. thanks for this info.."2005"?! yikes

I am anxious about the Season..
I think ALL concerned better put an evac.plan together,
start stocking up on necessary supplies, etc.

Actually, I'm more anxious about the LATEST bp disaster, than I am about Storms..
but You're right, even a "minor" storm is going to cause major INLAND issues.
Welcome to DU:hi:

[Feron]

2. I've learned to ignore the season forecasts.

Every year they always overestimate the number of storms and it only takes one storm to wreak havoc in your area.

I recall one year the forecasters were betting it would be one of the worst seasons and it ended up being a quiet one.

I do hope this season is quiet. Not only because of the spill, but Haiti could use a break as well.

[spin]

3. I think the forecasters are paid under the table by the insurance companies ...

but I could be wrong.

They do seem to always predict a bad year for hurricanes. I could publish a prediction every year that forecast an average or below average year for hurricanes and I would be right more often than they are.

Weather forecasters can't reliably predict weather three days into the future. Why trust them to predict six months into advance. You could do as good by purchasing a cheap crystal ball and waving your hands over it.