Fierce hurricane season predicted

[charlesg]

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/storms/hurricanes/2010-05-26-hurricane-season-prediction_N.htm?csp=34news

Fierce hurricane season predicted
By Doyle Rice, USA TODAY

Federal forecasters today called for an "active" to "extremely active" hurricane season this year, with anywhere from 14 to 23 named storms expected to form in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Of those named storms, 8 to 14 should become hurricanes, including 3 to 7 "major" hurricanes, with wind speeds above 111 mph.

Tropical storms are given a name when wind speeds reach 39 mph, and are upgraded to hurricane status when their sustained winds reach 74 mph. An average Atlantic hurricane season sees 11 named storms, including six hurricanes, with two becoming major hurricanes. Forecasters do not predict the number of storms that will make landfall.

The forecast was announced Thursday morning by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration at a press conference at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C. "If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record," said NOAA chief Jane Lubchenco. "The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared."

Forecasters say that some of the factors that support this outlook include a weakening El Nino, record warm Atlantic Ocean water, and the fact that we're in an era of high activity...

[BR_Parkway]

1. How much oil could a hurricane in the Gulf pickup and carry inland?

[kestrel91316]

4. Oh, a whole helluva lot.....

[nichomachus]

6. Please be more precise

I say it's a "damned potful."

[Dappleganger]

2. We've been VERY lucky the last couple of years.

That's been nice, considering all the damage of the 2004 hurricanes here in FL. I'll bet we're going to get hit hard this season (and my fellow FL friends think so too). We have upped the emergency supplies this year. Because of the economy and inflation, it's never a bad investment.

[malaise]

3. I don't need this now

Thanks anyway.

[kestrel91316]

5. I do NOT need to hear this. My dear niece recently moved to Ft. Lauderdale.

[mod mom]

7. here is a frightening discussion from NPR:

-snip

And recently Emanuel has been speculating about ways an oil slick could actually make a hurricane more powerful.

Dr. EMANUEL: Right now, sitting out there as it is in the Gulf, you have this black surface and it's doing two things. First of all, it's absorbing sunlight. And secondly, it is curtailing evaporation from the Gulf right now.

HAMILTON: Emanuel says both of those things tend to trap heat in the water.

Dr. EMANUEL: So, theoretically, the Gulf underneath this oil slick should be getting hotter than it normally would be.

HAMILTON: And hot water is one factor that drives small hurricanes to become big ones. It's hard to know for sure if the area near this lake is getting hotter because the oil makes satellite temperature readings unreliable.

Emanuel says not only is it possible that the oil spill could make a hurricane worse, the reverse might also be true. For example, the hurricane could magnify the effects of the spill by pushing oil into coastal wetlands.



http://www.npr.org/templates/transcript/transcript.php?storyId=127036434