As I keep my fingers crossed regarding the oil "plugging", I have an over arching worry...

[Javaman]

If this works, then once again, the oil corps are free to continue deep well drilling.

Not only that, but the right wing will now screech that there is a "solution" to spills AND it was done without help from the government.

On edit: they will be banging this drum loud and long. Especially the halfwit tea bagging libertarians.

It's coming, prepare for it.

[TwilightGardener]

1. I'm not too worried--scenes of ongoing devastation will keep the industry from winning back

any love for a while.

[Javaman]

5. I would like to think that but since most of the media is controlled by the right wing...

I suspect it will vanish from the headlines as soon as it's capped.

Also prepare yourself for a smoke screen manufactured outrage headline. I suspect them running full bore with something about N. Korea or perhaps, more likely, American Idol.

[wtmusic]

2. And heaven help us if efforts to fight climate change actually begin to work

because we'll have to hear how there was never a problem in the first place.

It never, ever stops.

[CLANG]

3. Why did they take 37 days to try top kill?

[Javaman]

4. I keep asking myself that same question. nt

[sharp_stick]

6. Partly because it's a higher risk maneuver

it could make the situation worse if it's not successful but I think the main reason is that they needed to make 50,000 pounds of specialized "mud" of the right consistency and density and engineer the system for delivering it. This stuff didn't exist when the blowout happened.

The lesson I'm taking from this whole thing is that we have to be one hell of a lot better prepared for "very unlikely" events in the future. BP and the Government clearly were not ready to react to a blowout at the bottom of the ocean.

[karynnj]

19. They also were measuring pressure to insure this had a chance

In addition to the time to make the mud, it might have been needed to let the pressure decrease.

[gateley]

7. I heard someone addressing this last night. They initially tried other options,

including that dome thing that didn't work, and apparently they needed to manufacture some parts, get stuff delivered, etc., -- logistics. It's understandable that it would take time but the bottom line is they weren't set up or prepared for an emergency as they had claimed to be.

[guitar man]

8. because they were trying to save the damn well

and nobody will ever convince me otherwise. They had a lot of money sunk into drilling that hole including a $350 million drilling rig that went to the bottom and they wanted to recoup their investment. Screw the people that died, screw the environment, it's all about their damn money. I hope they choke on it!! :grr:

[TheMadMonk]

12. Regardless of solution, a relief well would have to be drilled to relieve...

...the pressure in the current highly untrustworthy borehole. Their cost to complete the well's capping is pretty much the same (give or take a few million) whatever path got chosen, and at the end of it all they will have their production well no matter what. Possibly in a spot that is not ideal for maximum extraction from the oil bearing formation. (Boo hoo.)

Top kill was not first choice simply because, one possible consequence of failure was/is a total blowout of the well. Then they'd have an even bigger mess to deal with than the one they are already covering up.

[BeFree]

13. The question is...

..was the BOP throttling the flow before?

IIRC the bottom pipe in the hole was just 6 inches wide. That would have limited, somewhat, the amount that could come out. So, was the BOP stopping anything at all?

[TheMadMonk]

17. BOP + kinks in the colapsed riser were certainly throttling the flow to some degree.

Yes I know the bore is multiple pipes inside each other. There is reason to fear that the cementing that was supposed to bond inner to outer pipes didn't take properly. With no way to find out, there is at least some possibility that the BOP is capping a wide open bore.

[BeFree]

20. How much?

The pipe comes through the BOP from below. The leaks were past the BOP, iirc, so how much was the BOP closed?

I guess it was already wide open. That what the flow was was already unrestricted by the BOP, but I don't know. Only BP knows for sure. If even them.

[tranche]

11. There are great explanations and timelines you can find on this site.

If you can wade through the screaming, there are some pretty good breakdowns of the timeline and actions taken.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

15. Because this isn't a video game or a movie.

[csziggy]

18. It took that long for the preparations and study to make sure it would not make it worse

According to the threads over on The Oil Drum (http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6515) the preparation for this normally would take 5 to 6 MONTHS. And it was not known if the BOP was in good enough shape to attempt until: "they had to wait for the top kill until Seceratry WU's gamma imaging idea was put into practice and a internal image of BOP was constructed .....so see if it would stand the procedure" (aliilaali, http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6515#comment-630738)

Another message about it:
Slatz on May 27, 2010 - 11:50am
It took them time to determine that pumping in 10-12,000 psi mud into the BOP wouldn't fail it and make a terrible situation even worse.
They also had to design and fabricate specialized fittings that would latch onto the various ports on the BOP, that would hold up to 10-12000 psi.
They probably did in 4-5 weeks what any sane engineer would have quoted 6-12 months to do under normal circumstances.
You really ought to check out some of the prep that went into this by the ROV's. Simply amazing what they can do.
http://bp.concerts.com/gom/rovs_24052010.htm
Slatz (http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6515#comment-630710)

[Subdivisions]

9. They don't seem to be showing much of the actual leaks today. In between

the cam cutting out after 10 seconds, all I've seen today is equipment.

[csziggy]

21. They spent a long time checking all the equipment to make sure it was OK

And no leaks where there were not supposed to be any. According to the Oil Drum site 'experts' BP engineers are preparing to pump cement into the well to cap it. What is coming out now is the kill mud which is blocking the oil and filling the pipes. But they cannot keep pumping mud forever plus the mud is toxic in itself. Read this thread: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6515

So the sooner they can get it cemented, the better - but they have to be sure that they are ready or the thing can blow out again with no way to stop it until the relief wells get done.

[BeFree]

10. Managing the perception

Give them a year and it'll be "Now, we can drill safely"

[Xenotime]

14. Obama is in charge and has put a stop to dilling...

He has done the right thing.

[TheKentuckian]

16. Oh, they will shove it down the memory hole as quickly as allowed

and of course the Reich will play the "invisible hand" card, as always.

No sense worrying about them too much though since they always go to the same playbook and all their plays are old, crappy, and predictable.
Also, as usual, reality doesn't match up. Not even relief wells are a 100% solution, just very likely.

Eventually, we'll be forced to endure a complete bleed out if we continue to drill in deep water.

Let's pray that it's not this time because 9,000 days (yeah, that's over 24 years) of this leak would be extraordinarily horrible on a scale we haven't seen, maybe as a human race regardless of being in written history or not.

[CLANG]

22. totally!