As Oil Gushes In Gulf, All Eyes On Central Caribbean Tropical Wave

[Purveyor]

With oil still gushing in the Gulf, all eyes are on a tropical wave in the central Caribbean (map) that appears to be getting more organized.

There is a 40 percent chance the strong tropical wave will become a tropical cyclone by Saturday, National Hurricane Center forecasters said Thursday morning.

Conditions suggest a more powerful storm could form over the next few days.

Meteorologists have been tracking the system throughout the week. The system has produced heavy rains in Jamaica and along the southern coast of Hispaniola. Thunderstorms are also forecast to drench the Cayman Islands and parts of Cuba.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/weather/hurricanes/gulf-oil-spill-boosts-attention-on-central-caribbean-tropical-wave/1104635



NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN THE EASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS AND JAMAICA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS EVENING.
SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE BEEN FALLING IN THE AREA AND THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[PBS Poll-435]

1. This time of year they usually hit the Yucatan, then fizzle over central Mexico.

[malaise]

2. They've been saying that for days

It's been raining here but it's hardly an event - no heavy rain so far, absolutely no wind - no thunder or lightning so far and absolutely no spin. Indeed it hasn't rained for at least two hours even though it's still overcast. They'll be much bigger storms to worry about this summer.

[Skink]

3. Are you in Jamaica?

[malaise]

4. Yes

and it's not raining now. By the way Jeff Masters also pointed out that there was no heavy rain in Haiti either.

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