The one Term President (Carter\Obama)

[nadinbrzezinski]

Now I must say it. I fear that Obama is troding over very familiar ground, that of a one term President.

Unlike Carter, who was truly an outsider, Obama served some time in the US Senate. Moreover, his VEEP served a lifetime in the Senate, so in THEORY they both should know how DC works. They don't.

Like Carter they are acting on assumptions that are NOT true. This is no drama Obama, risk and confrontation averse. As I said in another OP, this is not a community organizing project, and those techniques DO NOT work in DC. They did not work a generation ago when it was FAR LESS partisan, they don't work today.

Fact is, I am increasingly seeing a pattern, and at the end of the day... guess who will take fall like always? No, not the President... nor the DLC... it will be the left... whatever the left is. But if Obama and company don't get a clue FAST and start governing, taking responsibility and yes, accepting some conflict... this is going to be a one term presidency.

And this is all about OPTICS... and to those who will knee jerk defend this, I suggest you pick up a history book. Yes, there are differences, but there are also familiar patterns. That is all...

(War ROOM... GET ONE ASAP. And chiefly LEARN how DC works, and it is NOT a friendly place, even to a center right Democrat!)

[monmouth]

1. I was just comparing how Grayson might have handled these various

ados vs. Obama. Spine, where art thou?

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. I am starting to believe that the higher

you go in the political pecking order, the least spine you are supposed to show. It is a systemic problem... and like battered wives, sorry for the comparison, they internalize it.

[FrenchieCat]

31. Grayson would have to become President of all fo the people,

instead of the representative of one small district in one state of the USA.

Then you could maybe compare. Otherwise, it would seem a bit tilted.

[monmouth]

37. I was speaking in terms of backbone, spine....I know you get that....n/t

[FrenchieCat]

45. Backbone is easier to have when one is a small fish......

that's just a fact.

It's kind of like having a great big backbone,
but being forced to use it only in your garage.

[monmouth]

49. Haha, okay then, I like it....n/t

[BrklynLiberal]

3. Ironically, one would have thought that Rahm would have been able to show him those ropes.

Wasn't Emanuel known for not backing down from confrontation...

[monmouth]

4. He's probably on vacation or was told to keep a low profile..LOL...n/t

[nadinbrzezinski]

5. Both him and Axelrod

they are serving the same role as Turd Blossom. And they tend to chose fights that are not fights, and back down from things they should not.

At this point I'd like to reach for my tinfoil to be honest.

[DJ13]

6. Even though I think Obama has no backbone I dont see him losing in 2012

Carter had to face an opponent who's entire career was a giant publicity stunt aimed at becoming President.

The GOP has no person of that caliber on the horizon, and theres not enough time to create one.

[nadinbrzezinski]

7. But they have a media system

that will lie and cajole, something that did not exist with Reagan...

These days 24\7 propaganda is quite legal.

So I will not be sure this guy can win in 2012 if things don't change VERY FAST. If this changes, and the OPTICS change... until that happens...

And yes, they NEED to face to the media system, and you know what? Take on the fucking media system and break down monopolies and make propaganda illegal, ONCE AGAIN.

[ngant17]

55. Carter got burned by the October Surprise

so it's hard to predict what will happen before 2012. Too many variables.

[RBInMaine]

8. If the unemployment rate was at 8%, every single post like this would be moot.

There's ONE, only ONE statistic that has any relevence with any of this crap. That is the unemployment number. All the rest is shit. We lost 8 million jobs. He said on day one, the inaugural, that it would take YEARS to fix. This guy has accomplished more legislation than most would have thought possible. I'll agree he could be louder and clearer sometimes, but then again, he often is and some just don't seem to listen. This comparison is WEAK and VERY premature. Please grow up.

[nadinbrzezinski]

9. Where exactly did I speak of the economy?

But thanks for playing.

Here is a clue for you... the OPTICS of the last 24-48 hours.

Or do you have a problem following THAT story?

And that is the kind of situation that NEEDS A WAR ROOM.

[LooseWilly]

26. The administration has passed legislation...

but most of it seems to be so watered down and weakened in order to avoid exactly the conflicts mentioned in the OP... In many eyes that legislation isn't noteworthy, but emblematic of exactly the problem of risk aversion leading to only lackluster results.

I'm unimpressed, and I don't seem to be alone.

[sendero]

52. You are not.

... and the old adage is completely true, if you try to please everyone, you will please no one.

[county worker]

10. He may be a one term president but this is nothing like when Carter lost.

The pushback against Carter was a push back against things he did that we want Obama to do.



By the end of his administration, he could claim an increase of nearly eight million jobs and a decrease in the budget deficit, measured in percentage of the gross national product.

He dealt with the energy shortage by establishing a national energy policy

His expansion of the national park system included protection of 103 million acres of Alaskan lands.
To increase human and social services, he created the Department of Education, bolstered the Social Security system, and appointed record numbers of women, blacks, and Hispanics to Government jobs

He helped bring amity between Egypt and Israel.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/about/presidents/jimmycarter

[nadinbrzezinski]

12. And that history makes him a pretty damn President

that said, he NEVER really understood DC, and that did not help him.

The last forty eight hours show a WH that perhaps does not understand DC either... and how it works. That is the pattern.

Yes, he gets feathers in cap, and all that, this does not mean that he will succeed in reelection since he (like the Carter Administration) does not understand message control.

When a nobody can generate this knee jerk reaction, you got to wonder what else they can do?

And this is why they need a War Room. Establishing one and RESPONDING to the crap as it comes out will make wonders to CHANGE the pattern.

[county worker]

46. If the sec of ag did the firing is looks like a decentralized type of management.

You can have that if you can trust your cabinet to do what is right. This time they got it wrong.

What I keep waiting to hear is Obama explaining himself. But that never happens. Like the idea to open up more drilling off the eastern coasts then after the BP catastrophe I heard nothing.

[nadinbrzezinski]

51. That is part of the problem

but the RW has managed to get Van Jones, Accorn and now her... who's next?

And chiefly... that is the pattern I am talking about.

[LAGC]

58. The "request" came from the White House.

Shirley Sherrod said so herself.

Are you calling her a liar?

[county worker]

65. No I am not calling her a liar. I was thinking out loud and had not heard that.

[MikeNY]

11. No Balance

Obama has no opposition other than his own party. This was Bush's biggest problem. If you believe in our shared history, you know that the government that governs best is the one that governs least. This is the anti-thesis of Obama. He governs a lot. And a lot of his governance has been about making concessions to businesses, which does not necessarily translate into anything tangible for the normal person. Obama is surrounded by cabinet members and lobbyists who are all pushing their own agenda at home. And if you don't think he is confined by the military industrial complex by now, you are a fool. The Obama on the campaign trail is not the Obama currently residing at the White House. If it was, we'd be hell out of Afghanistan by now. The Obama that everyone knew and loved suddenly disappeared after the inauguration. Did anyone think he would try to cut funding to NASA?? I mean come on, close a military base in the middle of nowhere and save some face.

I think Obama's biggest problem is that he, and the rest of the DNC, have no real opposition in Congress, just like Bush had a Neocon Congress backing him. A balanced Congress would've made him more aggressive to push a liberal agenda, instead of a weird pseudo-populist one. The bailout, his protectionist policy towards BP, and his dealing with the healthcare reform are very alienating to me, and I bet a lot of other liberal voters. However, I still think it will be a hell of a long time before people are willing to accept a Republican president after Bush.

Based on his poll numbers come the election cycle, it's possible the DNC will ask him not to run again. I think Democrats will lose the Congress, but not the Presidency. People are too worried about electing another Bush. Oddly, a Neocon Congress and a Democrat President may be the best chance we have for real reform, since the President will be under a lot of pressure to push, as opposed to floundering around. The Obama of the campaign trail was all about meeting all our world leaders and befriending them. The current Obama seems to be planning sanctions and thinking about how to takeover the Middle East or something... this isn't why he was elected, and it will ensure he is not elected again if he continues to reneg on his campaign.

[nadinbrzezinski]

14. Ok here is a reality check

ANY president, regardless of party, will act per the logic of Empire... see Afghanistan. Congress, no Congress... Empire drives quite a bit of it.

But this is not about THAT... and I don't care what letter is behind a name... this is about the OPTICS of the last oh 48 hours.

Oh and Empire, until it finally FAILS, and that day is coming, closer than you think by the way... it will not be pretty. We are living at the twilight of Empire... but that is a whole different discussion.

By the way the Obama of the Campaign Trail PROMISED to increase our troops in Afghanistan. I did listen to him, and voted for him IN -SPITE of my disagreement with that policy. That was a CAMPAIGN PROMISE, carried out by the way.

[MikeNY]

27. RE: Ok here is a reality check

Right... he said he would go after Al Queda in Afghanistan, not rebuild the entire country with our army guys playing social worker. That country is a nightmare, and when he received opposition of what he was doing there from one of his generals, he fires the guy. (You can go on and on about how McChrystal insulted too many foreign dignitaries in the R.S. article, but the reality is generals aren't supposed to be politically correct). Of course, as a general, we know that the President ALWAYS listens to the recommendations of his generals, except when they're made public and completely embarrass the crap out of him, even if it might be true. Then its politics as usual and off with his head.

I find this to be the point where Obama jumped the shark and turned into the guy he never wanted to be as President...

I'm well aware of the empire this country runs, but Obama purported to be different than that. His campaign slogan of change turned out to be a code word for "status quo". He has done nothing to push back the powers of the Presidency to pre-Bush, repeal the Patriot Act, or anything. He has let the sunset provisions in the Bush tax cuts expire, and thats about it.

Afghanistan... maybe you thought he'd send 30,000 more kids there for 2 years, but I sure as hell didn't. I thought he would use special ops to kill terrorists. If you start discussing why we have been in Afghanistan for 10 years with me, my answer to you is that its all about contracts and prolonging American military supremacy at the expense of everyone, but I may not get your vote of approval.

I am also well aware of your empire terminology, have extensive knowledge of our fiat based currency system, and know all about how the entire economy could implode at any minute thanks to our sole status as superpower and overbearing federal government. I was just hoping Obama, as a Constitutional law professor, might have had some ideas about how to fix that.

[nadinbrzezinski]

30. He promised to escalate the war in Afghanistan

his words, the good and necessary war.

He promised to deescalate Iraq.

And as to McChrystal... read the UCMJ about insulting Officers about you. Insulting foreign leaders, nobody gives a fug... but the CiC and the next in line to CiC... it has all to do with good order and discipline. I know a concept that is truly foreign to Civilians.

I realize that most folks did NOT believe escalation meant 30K more troops. But that is exactly what he promised. Hell I exp0ected 200K more troops if available.

Oh and on both, promise kept.

[avaistheone1]

13. Actually Carter was leading in the polls & was headed for reelection until the time of Reagan's

dirty October Surprise.

[nadinbrzezinski]

16. There is that, but

lack of understanding of how DC works (see the October Surprise) killed him politically.

[avaistheone1]

21. It had nothing to do with lack of understanding of how DC works

The October Surprise was a secret illegal operation.

[nadinbrzezinski]

29. I know and it established a pattern

that lives to these days... iran contra... the last eight years... yep, it established a pattern of how DC works.

To paraphrase animal farm... some of us are more equal than others.

And I don't expect anybody dealing with this any time soon.

[jah the baptist]

15. his job approval is much closer to reagan and clinton in their midterm summers nt

[nadinbrzezinski]

17. What part about OPTICS

are people having a problem comprehending? You got Breitbart running a crappy story... and the WH jumps?

It is just a question of HOW HIGH?

[jah the baptist]

20. you think that episode is going to be an issue in the 2012 election?

i can assure you it will not

[nadinbrzezinski]

32. Only if this becomes a pattern

which already is. This is about conflict aversion with FOX and the Right Wing Media machine.

If they change that pattern, see War Room, then it will be a non-issue.

[jah the baptist]

36. even if that were true

the election

like all presidential elections

will be determined by the state of the economy on election day

i believe that point was the primary one in the documentary to which you refer

[nadinbrzezinski]

41. Will see

fact is that Voting in The US is low by any WESTERN democracy, and one of the reasons for that is the disillusioned voter

Optics can lead to even more of those...

[jah the baptist]

44. you are right about that

but its kind of a chicken and egg thing

is turnout so low because politicians suck?

or

do politicians suck because people arent paying attention and involved

i dont know but it is an ugly cycle at this point. haing said that obama could make a mistake like this one every day between now and 2012 and if the economy is booming he will be reelected. he could never mess up again, do all the right things at every turn and still get beat if it is in the crapper.

[nadinbrzezinski]

47. Problem is that messaging is critical

and psychology is also critical for an economic recovery.

For the wrong reasons, the Rs get it... why they want the economy in the crapper and be able to blame the dems.

Well you need to counter the R's message and sadly, the stimulus was quite anemic. Partly because of the conflict averse Obama Administration.

Now IF things are correct, with economic indicators, we should be around a 6% unemployment by 2012. No, not spectacular, but.

If the deficit hawks get their way... our long range lost decade will look like the 1929 depression, I fear... and who controls the message here and how... that is a problem.

[jah the baptist]

56. i agree with all of that

and yes

perceived competence on the part of the government can affect the economy

and overall i agree with your opinion that they are too sensitive to what those in the fever swamps are saying about them

[rury]

63. And President Obama will easily be re-elected just like

Reagan and Clinton

[McCamy Taylor]

18. Obama is going to win re-election, no problem. That is why he needs to relax.

The sitting president has a tremendous advantage, and people basically like Obama. He should just be himself and do the things that need to be done and make the DOJ crack down on election fraud.

[Xenotime]

19. Agreed 100%

[jesus_of_suburbia]

25. Only if the economy is better (or if the Republicans are dumb enough to nominate Palin)

I'm not saying it's Obama's fault the economy is so bad, but if it's not significantly better after almost 4 years of his administration, then he will get the blame when people go into the voting booth.

Nothing else matters as much to the average Jane/Joe who don't pay attention to politics like we do on DU.

[bobbolink]

22. "I welcome their hatred."

"Never before in all our history have these forces been so united against one candidate as they stand today. They are unanimous in their hate for me—and I welcome their hatred.

I should like to have it said of my first Administration that in it the forces of selfishness and of lust for power met their match. I should like to have it said of my second Administration that in it these forces met their master."
http://www.ourdocuments.gov/doc.php?flash=old&doc=69&page=transcript

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D9yoZHs6PsU

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

23. Carter's presidency was seen as "failed". Obama's is headed the same way.

The country is floundering in a recession with no end in sight. It's stuck in a lost war with no exit in sight.

Perception is important in politics and Obama, like Carter, is starting to be perceived as a failure by public. McCain didn't have a chance because of Bush's obvious failures and the public finally seeing him for what he was: A buffoon posing as a "good ole boy" populist.

"Not as bad" may keep him in office, but it's a piss-poor campaign slogan.

[Name removed]

24. Deleted message

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[bobbolink]

34. "if you pick it, it will never heal."

[pampango]

28. Who will take the fall? "not the President." If he's not reelected, that's taking a fall to me.

Of course, that happening would drag most other Democrats down with him. Hard to even imagine what a republican presidency, particularly tied to repub control of congress, would do to our country.

[nadinbrzezinski]

33. See last eight years for a hint

[get the red out]

35. I think some "Democrats" would be happy with that

A total Republican victory would give some on the left the right to just be upset all the time at the way things are going, I think a lot of Dems want that more than actually trying to slowly turn the tide back from extreme-right thinking and deal with the fact that the people of this country won't change their thinking over-night due to media influences. The country won't get where we want it to go quickly, but then it may be easier to not have to put up with all the slogging along with small careful steps with Democrats battling the legacy of the right wing media influence and just be happy to bitch if the Republicans get back into power.

Yea, Republicans being in power is much easier to deal with. We know there won't be any slow progress to worry about then because we will slide back toward those comfortable medieval ways and good old predictable theocracy.

[nadinbrzezinski]

40. In other words we blame the left

thanks for the perfect example.

For one I'd hate to see Republican Rule... but I also realize that part of the problem is the DC system. That includes the conflict aversion that leads to... in the latest optics problem, a Public Servant fired over Fox News and Breitbart.

Now the LEFT did not tell the Administration, whoever took that decision, to demand a resignation to avoid a conflict.

Nor did the left ask the administration to avoid conflict and compromise in everything. Compromise is important but the "democrats" are not the ones going after Unions, (see Teachers)... the "democrats" are not the ones encouraging the Administration to compromise and weaken all bills either.

Yes, I know we don't have the votes, even with a clear majority, revealing the true problems of the Constitutional problem. But thanks for proving what I meant. Those "democrats" translate to lefties, and it was them who as usual are snookered and blamed.

Thank you.

Perfect example.

Now perhaps someday the center right power structure will get it, but I am not counting on it.

[tom_paine]

62. Funny that both the DLC and the RNC are united in blaming the Left

It's shriekingly funny and ironic. (if such a thing exists in an Inverted Totalitarianism such as the former USA)

It's like blaming the Jews in Germany for everything. It doesn't make sense. The Left currently is as powerful as the European Jews in the 1930s, which is to say not at all. And yet, how is it that the most powerless of the factions takes the blame for everything. It's nuts.

"The Left" couldn't get single payer, couldn't even get the Public Option and collapsed like a wet paper bag when Obama leaned on them. THAT'S the definition of all-powerful?

No, that's the definition of an Authoritarian Society - beat on the powerless and pretend they are all-powerful, thus giving the aggressors the self-righteousness of victims.

Yep, it's all The Left's fault. Makes a consistent script/storyline for "journalists" who don't want to work or think too hard.

[Name removed]

43. Deleted message

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[AtomicKitten]

38. Reports of this president's political demise are greatly exaggerated. nt

[Toucano]

39. Just waiting for Obama's "malaise" speech and the circle will be complete.

The similarities are remarkable, but the difference is also striking.

Obama is struggling because he has tried too hard to accommodate the people who do not want him to succeed (Republicans).

Carter struggled with his own party's desire to maintain the status quo in Washington who resisted the changes the people elected him to make.

[nadinbrzezinski]

42. Absolutely that is why I was talking of the pattern

not necessarily against who.

And unlike Carter, they still have time to deal with it... and I hope the LATEST, in the large scheme of things, minor incident, gives them the impetus to change.

I wish, but doubt it will happen, that they invite the Carters to the White House, or Camp David, and have a long private conversation on that. Also the Clintons. And learn the lessons. Conflict aversion is not helping.

[BurtWorm]

48. A major difference between Obama and Carter: Obama actually has accomplished a lot

No matter what anyone might think of it, he has a string of what might be called victories that Carter never assembled in more than twice as many years in office. Obama's admin is a pretty efficient machine. Aggravating often, too centrist, not aggressive enough in pushing as far as they could go.

But my point is, the Carter comparison stopped being apt when HCR passed. The only thing standing between Obama and a second term now (in addition to two and a half more years in office) is a Democratic party less enthusiastic about his accomplishments than Republicans would be about getting the frightening black man out of the White House.

[nadinbrzezinski]

53. Look at patterns

and conflict aversion.

This is where the comparison is very much still on point. History never, EVER, repeats itself 100% Those who think so, don't understand history.

[BurtWorm]

60. The main thing to look at if you want to know if a president will get a second term

is how well the people seem to think he's doing in his fourth year. Are they angry with him? Do they like him? Is he a laughing stock across the board? Are the people doing well enough or are they insecure?

What a president does and thinks is less important to his chances than what people think he's doing and thinking.

[WinkyDink]

54. Yes, those Camp David Accords were as nothing. Creation of the Dept of Energy.

Amnesty for those who chose not to fight in the VietNam Conflict.

"Jimmy Carter served as president from Jan. 20, 1977, to Jan. 20, 1981. Significant foreign policy accomplishments of his administration included the Panama Canal treaties, the Camp David Accords, the treaty of peace between Egypt and Israel, the SALT II treaty with the Soviet Union, and the establishment of U.S. diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China. He championed human rights throughout the world. On the domestic side, the administration's achievements included a comprehensive energy program conducted by a new Department of Energy; deregulation in energy, transportation, communications, and finance; major educational programs under a new Department of Education; and major environmental protection legislation, including the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act."
http://www.cartercenter.org/news/experts/jimmy_carter.html

[BurtWorm]

57. Most of Carter's accomplishments were pick-ups from previous admins.

I'll give him Camp David as his own, but almost all of the rest of it was in the works anyway. He just happened to be the guy in the White House when they came to fruition.

Carter was a lousy president. The public did not like him. Neither did Congress, which was Democratic at the time. Our memories are not fooling us on that.

[WinkyDink]

59. "Pick-ups" from Ford? Nixon? My memory is just fine.

[BurtWorm]

61. Mostly, yes.

What made Carter Carter, on the other hand, was not generally appealing to people once they got to watch him in action.

[WinkyDink]

50. JFK, LBJ.....The long knives have been unsheathed for a while.

[Mimosa]

64. Obama's 'friends' are the ones who'll bring him down

Obama's 'friends' are the ones who'll bring him down, a friend of mine opined before he was elected. I was then working for Obama's election.

It's time for a staff shakeup. And a war room who knows how to work media.