Enter the number of House seats Democrats will win or lose in November

[DrSteveB]

So that later we know who has good predictive skills and who doesn't. Thanks.

I will not make a prediction so as to not tilt the scale.

I will announce the winner(s) immediately after the elections.

[readmoreoften]

1. I think Democrats will lose 6 seats and gain 4.

I don't think it's going to be a bloodbath. I think its going to be something like a minor slide.

[gateley]

2. Kick - I have no idea but I'm interested to see what others think. nt

[pennylane100]

3. me too

[IndianaJoe]

4. I'm really hoping for the best, but being realistic

I think we'll really do well to keep the House. That means we lose around 40+ seats.

I was looking at the history of this:

For November, no. The ruling party in the US almost always loses House seats in a midterm election:
There's a good graph depicting this here:

<http://zompist.wordpress.com/>

Add in the crumby economy and it just doesn't look great short term.

On the other hand, I don't see the Republicans being able to build on their winnings. I don't think the American people want investigations, indictments, or impeachments. I think they want jobs and I don't see where Republicans have any plan to give them any. But it bodes ill for the country. If we keep the Senate, we'll have 2 years of political stalemate with major problems not getting addressed.

[Keefer]

5. Being a realistic kind of guy...

I (sadly) am bracing myself to lose the House. We will keep the Senate. (Probably by a thin margin.) I'm getting depressed already, but I am going to vote. Straight Dem ticket.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

6. 58

[DrSteveB]

17. gain or loss? n/t

[Odin2005]

7. I think we will lose a net total of 20.

Mostly DINOs in Red districts losing to teabaggers.

Remember that all politics is local, many people may vote for the Dem just because the Republican is too bat-shit crazy, not because they approve of Obama's spinelessness.

[Yupster]

8. 27 House , 4 senate

I really don't think it's going to be so bad.

But what do I know?

[mdmc]

9. -7

keep the house.. bookmark it - ya heard it here first!

[Upton]

10. 45

we had a net loss of 54 in '94 and we were actually doing better than today in the pre-election generic ballots..so it could be a whole lot worse. Nate Silver has said he wouldn't be shocked if it was as many as 70.

[Name removed]

11. Deleted message

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[BlueJazz]

12. The Democrats will lose 10 seats.

:(

[DrSteveB]

15. Is that the House or Senate?

Whatever it is please specify because some have been adding their Senate predictions as well, which is ok but not necessary. So please state which it is you refer to. Thanks.

[BlueJazz]

27. House. :)

Thanks

[nevergiveup]

13. -35

The fact expectations are so low could work to the Democrat's advantage. The media is working hard for a bloodbath. We will see.

[DrSteveB]

14. Note: An award for worst prediction will be granted as well

[Bitwit1234]

16. Since sthe republicans have to defend 200

or more seats, I don't believe that the public is that damn dumb to vote for all of them. The Democrats will take at least 6 more seat in the House and maybe 3 or 4 in the Senate. Have you all looked at who is running in the Senate. Lincoln is about the only Democrat who might loose. And Paul will make up for that he'll in all probably loose his seat in Kentucky. That's if the Democrats keep and eye on the machines. And there are several republicans who are vunerable. I can't think of any Democrats. The republicans have 18 running for re-election and the Democrats only 16.

[Codeine]

18. You're deluded.

I guarantee you we will not gain seats, and certainly not 3 or 4 in the Senate. Can you show me six races where we can flip Senate seats? Oe even four races?

[opihimoimoi]

19. Me thinks you are close

[Imajika]

20. That is the most dreamy, fantasyland post I've seen here...

...in quite awhile.

First, Lincoln is a goner. To even think she has a shot is just to deny political reality entirely. The woman is down like 25 points and barring God himself coming down and changing people's hearts, Lincoln has no chance.

Second, Paul, crazy as his is, is not likely to lose in Kentucky.

The Democrats have no chance whatsoever of netting ANY gains in the House or Senate. That you think this makes me believe you are living in an alternate universe and just stepped in to this one to say hello. I wish I lived in your universe actually, but sadly, in this one - November is going to be really ugly for us. We will be extremely lucky to hang on to the House, and increasingly our hold on the Senate even looks at risk.

[AnArmyVeteran]

21. Negative 8 Senate & Negative 37 House seats.

But if democrats somehow found a pair of balls they could gain seats. But they don't seem to want to win. Even though they control both houses of congress they are acting like they are the minority. Democrats give the enemy everything they want and they let them control the message. Why even try to win if they are going to act like losers?

[Imajika]

22. -53 in the House, -9 in the Senate

Just 1-2 weeks ago I thought we could hold both the House and Senate. As of this Labor Day weekend, I no longer think so.

The polling just looks so bad this past week that I've had to rethink November entirely. There are House and Senate seats that appear to be in play that were Solid Dem just a few weeks ago. Now I just hope things don't deteriorate further.

[pstokely]

23. My prediction right now, keep the house by a few seats

It's still to early for any real predictions

[Ryano42]

24. 435

Everyone's attitude here has convinced me.

GAME OVER, MAN. GAME OVER.

:eyes:

[StreetKnowledge]

25. -30 House, -6 Senate.

The House is more of a question. The Dem seats in North Dakota and Arkansas are gone - Dorgan is retiring and Lincoln hasn't a prayer of winning. I'll bet that Specter is done, too. The GOP, pathetically, has the momentum right now. The Democrats, as such, need to hammer them into the ground. If they lose the House, Obama can forget about his agenda - Boehner will make sure he doesn't get a damn thing done. The Democrats really do have to find a way of keeping the House. The Senate should be priority #2 - the GOP will find that one much harder to take.

And if they manage to royally botch it all up and lose both, honestly, Obama should do himself and his family a favor and resign. Let Biden deal with the bullshit the GOP will throw up, they'll hate him less. After all, he's white......

[Rochester]

26. -6 S, -26 H

Hoping for a smaller loss, of course.